Relationship between passerine species richness and primary productivity (NDVI) in South Africa.

<p>(A) Separately in each biome from the westernmost biome to the easternmost one. Grey symbols represent cell-specific estimates and black lines represent the linear regressions after correcting for spatial auto-correlation and the effect of topographic heterogeneity and water availability. Axes labels as in Fig 2B. (B) Across the study region. The colour scheme refers to the species debt legend. (C) Species debt (see <i>Species debt</i> in the Material and Methods section for definition and computation details). Negative values (dark blue tones) indicate cells with less species than expected (species debt); positive values (orange tones) indicate cells with more species than expected (species build-up). Values used to plot Fig 2 are in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0133992#pone.0133992.s003" target="_blank">S1 Table</a>.</p

(A) Biome-specific spatially auto-correlated regressions (MRSAR) of passerine species richness against elevational range in the grid cells (Topo HT; left blank if not selected in the final model), water availability (ETR increases with water availability; left blank if not selected in the final model), and primary productivity (NDVI increases with primary productivity).

<p>* For the Forest and Desert Biomes, regressions were computed across all grid cells where the biome occurred. For other biomes, regressions were implemented for the grid cells with >75% coverage by the biomes.</p><p>σ and λ respectively estimate the remaining variance and the autocorrelation coefficient. All variables were standardized to a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1 before analysis. (B) Average and standard deviation of biodiversity metrics (estimated and observed species richness, taxonomic dispersion under the two null models) for each biome.</p

Spatially auto-correlated regressions of taxonomic dispersion (NRI1) against species richness SR, latitude, longitude, water availability (ETR increases with water availability), and primary productivity (NDVI increases with primary productivity).

<p>σ and λ respectively estimate the remaining variance and the autocorrelation coefficient. All variables were standardized to a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1 before analysis.</p

Supplement 1. WinBUGS code for the two-species integrated model.

<h2>File List</h2><div> <p><a href="Peron and Koons 2012 - WinBUGS code.txt">Peron and Koons 2012 - WinBUGS code.txt</a> (md5: 0972cd2cbe2bb7ce64ff01a1269cbe8e) </p> </div><h2>Description</h2><div> <p>WinBUGS code for the two-species integrated model (CANV= canvasback, REDH=Redhead). </p> </div

Appendix A. Matrix model used in the state-space formulation, full parameterization of the variance–covariance matrix between model parameters, and regression between the population counts time series.

Matrix model used in the state-space formulation, full parameterization of the variance–covariance matrix between model parameters, and regression between the population counts time series

Appendix C. Sensitivity of the results of the integrated model to changes in the prior distribution of the survey error parameter.

Sensitivity of the results of the integrated model to changes in the prior distribution of the survey error parameter

Appendix A. Multisite CMR recruitment model with a nonobservable state: matrix description.

Multisite CMR recruitment model with a nonobservable state: matrix description

Appendix A. Nonparametric and semiparametric spatial regression of survival probability index.

Nonparametric and semiparametric spatial regression of survival probability index

Supplementary material for Gauthier et al. from Partitioning prediction uncertainty in climate-dependent population models

Supplementary material on methods, climate scenarios and theoretical exploration of prediction variance component

Appendix C. Standard deviation from the posterior distribution of the survival probability, hunting pressure index, recovery probability, and growth rate index.

Standard deviation from the posterior distribution of the survival probability, hunting pressure index, recovery probability, and growth rate index