Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

Technique [Volume 88, Issue 25]

50 Years of Women at TechBeyond the White and GoldBreaking the BubbleCampus Research ReviewClassroom etiquette needed for learningGraduates further amend fee budgetGT nabs third in tourney, sweeps Troy StateHot or NotIntramural Notebook with Jack. B. NimbleJackets fall to No. 6 DukeLate housing cancellations to cost studentsLibrary looks to improve services with surveyMovie lawsuit frivolous, ridiculousNews BriefsNo.1 Tech continuing road successPat Ortman provides varied soundRelive your youth: attend the circus for a variety of funRoad trip to Orlando for a faux Mardi GrasStudent vote could move spring break...Two BitsUndergrads finish up in record timeUS Patent Office not protecting publicVagina Monologues spark campus dialogueWomen grab second, men take third at ACC Indoor'

Technique [Volume 88, Issue 20]

50 Years of Women At Tech: Walker started color gaurdAdministration, SGA plan Student Life FundAsk Dr. CloughBad student life fault of apathetic studentsBeyond the White and GoldBookstore plans approach completionBreaking the BubbleBudget released, ready for voteCrocker named first new police chief in 22 yearsDarkness Falls lacks thrills and chillsDiversity valuableHot or NotIntramural NotebookJackets push past Phoenix in 66-47 victoryMann's voice makes the albumMetroid Prime's graphics provide a new perspective on an old gameNEWS BRIEFSNew sterilizing technique developed by professor, area dentistNo. 19 Wake Forest tops Tech 73-66 as road woes continueOUR VIEWS Consensus OpinionParking policies counterproductivePower of spoken word great, unpredictableShaftnews.com offers new satirical parody of TechSPORTS BRIEFSStudent earns five degrees in four yearsTaking the plungeTech earns grant, implements rape awareness programsTechnology improves features of games on GameCubeTennis has mixed results at ACC'sTrack starts strong at Kentucky, looks to weekend events...Two BitsUndergrads table immigration billVote leaves XΩT without nationalWilcox, Steele update Grad Senat

Technique [Volume 89, Issue 29]

Beyond the White and GoldBreaking the Bubbleby the numbersCheerleaders, dance team skip Final Four trip for chance at NCA gloryCirque delivers awe-inspiring AlegriaCouncil Clippings Senate and HouseEntertainment BriefsHeaded to the Alamodome? Check out the Jackets' competitionHOPE fee, book funding safe from cuts, for nowHOT or NOTHousing sign-ups flawed, need online treatmentJackets knock off Jayhawks in regional finalMorgan, Stojanovska honored by NCAANCAA Tournament NotebookNews BriefsOn the road to San AntonioOUR VIEWS Consensus OpinionProsecution undue for medical refusalPunisher continues comic book movie string with little successRancorous debate dominates budget sessionRunoff election pits Phuong vs. CaseSport ShortsStudent appears on, but doesn't need Movie & MakeoverStudent orgs prepare for move into CommonsStudents return to roots, host high school math tournamentStudents showcase films at Ferst CenterThrough the looking glass...Two BitsYOUR VIEWS Letters to the Edito

Technique [Volume 88, Issue 14]

Architecture alumna designs proposal for Ground Zero memorialA tale of two buildings: one restored, one removedAthletes across country demand rightsBeyond the White and GoldBourne poetry reading at Ferst CenterBowling an entertaining documentary on important issuesBreaking the BubbleBurglaries strike East campus dormsChild care facility to provide students with new optionCommittee addresses official colors issueComputers are the key to the future of engineeringCross Country teams host ACC ChampionshipsGraduate Senate allocates $22,000GTCN staff member Scott Sergent publishes fictional novelHomecoming Highlights: Jackets send Cavaliers packingHouse reps show Halloween spiritIntramural NotebookMadame d' Amour Advice on Love and LifeMedia to blame for voter apathy, low turnoutNEWS BRIEFSOUR VIEWS Consensus OpinionProfessor lectures on bagel's social history, significanceRecent alumni find political campaigning rewarding, excitingSGA encourages students to think about issues that sway votesSwimming start successful with sweep of EmoryTim Allen reprises his jolly role in The Santa Clause 2...Two BitsUnder the Couch changes detrimental to campu

Technique [Volume 88, Issue 7]

50 Years of Women at TechBeyond the White and GoldBolton reprimands UHR for slating financial bills in meetingsBreaking the BubbleClough meets with Chi Phi nationalsFaces at Georgia TechFictional engineering: Tech grad breaks mold with novelGraduate Senate makes quorumHewitt's No. 9 recruiting class pushes Tech to the topINTA roundtable kicks off Sept. 11 eventsLady Jackets score stellar recruits for new seasonLinkin Park remixes and fails to pleaseNew NCAA Football raises barNEWS BRIEFSOUR VIEWS Consensus OpinionPhysics prof performs a different experimentPresident popular servantProgress begins on Technology Square, BME complexResignations cause debate in HouseRHA proposes council changesSept. 11th should be remembered appropriatelyShaft mentality starts with administration, not profsSpikers start off strongSports BriefsTech football cheapened by matchTech sense of community shinesTech sinks Commodores...Two Bit