A New Test for the Success of Inflation Targeting

We propose a new test, derived from a set of variance decompositions of a structural VAR, for the success of inflation targeting. In contrast to standard sacrifice ratios this test considers changes in the structure of real and nominal shocks; second moment effects. We find strong support for IT with 7 of the 9 countries in our sample having negative “sacrifices” and many countries with “benefits”. However, we also find very different performances across IT countries. We find that “IT success” depends on the size of the real shocks suffered but controlling for this there are differences in country performance.

Using Simulation-based Inference with Panel Data in Health Economics

Panel datasets provide a rich source of information for health economists, offering the scope to control for individual heterogeneity and to model the dynamics of individual behaviour. However the qualitative or categorical measures of outcome often used in health economics create special problems for estimating econometric models. Allowing a flexible specification of the autocorrelation induced by individual heterogeneity leads to models involving higher order integrals that cannot be handled by conventional numerical methods. The dramatic growth in computing power over recent years has been accompanied by the development of simulation-based estimators that solve this problem. This review uses binary choice models to show what can be done with conventional methods and how the range of models can be expanded by using simulation methods. Practical applications of the methods are illustrated using data on health from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS).

Using Simulation-Based Inference with Panel Data in Health Economics

Panel datasets provide a rich source of information for health economists, offering the scope to control for individual heterogeneity and to model the dynamics of individual behaviour. However the qualitative or categorical measures of outcome often used in health economics create special problems for estimating econometric models. Allowing a flexible specification of individual heterogeneity leads to models involving higher order integrals that cannot be handled by conventional numerical methods. The dramatic growth in computing power over recent years has been accompanied by the development of simulation estimators that solve this problem. This review uses binary choice models to show what can be done with conventional methods and how the range of models can be expanded by using simulation methods. Practical applications of the methods are illustrated using on health from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS)Econometrics, panel data, simulation methods, determinants of health

A new test for the success of inflation targeting

We propose a new test, derived from a set of variance decompositions of a structural VAR, for the success of inflation targeting. In contrast to standard sacrifice ratios this test considers changes in the structure of real and nominal shocks; second moment effects. We find strong support for IT with 7 of the 9 countries in our sample having negative “sacrifices” and many countries with “benefits”. However, we also find very different performances across IT countries.

Indebted: American Private Debt and Its Political Consequences

Private debt, also known as consumer debt, has been increasing exponentially over the past eighty years. Largely spurred by private and governmental action, the growth in consumer debt has allowed Americans to purchase services and commodities that they may not otherwise have been able to afford. However, research has also shown that debt has strong adverse effects on human social behavior. This is especially troublesome given how indebted Americans, and in particular poor and minority Americans, have become in recent years. Thus, I ask if the effects of debt extend to political activity as well as social behavior. In this dissertation, I examine three dimensions of political activity across three papers. First, I look at the relationship between debt burden and political trust. Second, I analyze if a connection between debt burden and political and civic engagement also exists. Finally, I seek if a relationship exists between debt and support for various socioeconomic policies. I theorize that debt burden is a form of economic adversity that political scientists have thus far ignored. Thus, I also utilize additional economic adversity variables to see if the effect of debt burden on political behavior disappears with their inclusion. In a world of rising income inequality and economic adversity, I believe it is essential to highlight if growing debt is a concern that may also exacerbate political inequalities