Popularity functions, partisan effects and support in Parliament

This paper analyzes the popularity of the main political entities in Portugal. After describing the recent evolution and structure of the Portuguese political system, we present estimations of popularity functions for the Assembly, Government, Prime Minister, and President using several estimation techniques to incorporate the timeseries and cross-equation aspects of the models. The results strongly favor the responsibility hypothesis, with unemployment, and to a lesser extent inflation, affecting popularity levels. There is also evidence that voters’ evaluations of incumbents’ economic performance depends on the ideology and support in Parliament of the latter. Finally, there is evidence of popularity erosion over consecutive terms and of honeymoon effects.

Political Business Cycles at the Municipal Level

This article tests for the existence of rational political business cycles models using a large and unexplored data set of Portuguese municipalities. The data set is well-suited for this purpose because it provides a high level of detail on expenditure items, because Portuguese municipalities are homogeneous with respect to policy instruments and institutions and follow an exogenously determined election schedule. Estimation results clearly reveal the existence of opportunistic behaviour by local governments. Expenditures increase in pre-election periods, especially on items that are highly visible to the electorate (e.g., highways and streets). This suggests an effort to signal competence and improve chances of re-election.Political business cycles, public finance, local governments.

Does Opportunism Pay Off?

This article tests the hypothesis that the opportunistic manipulation of financial accounts by mayors increases their chances of re-election. Working with a large and detailed dataset comprising all Portuguese mainland municipalities, which covers the municipal elections that took place from 1979 to 2001, we clearly show that increases in investment expenditures and changes in the composition of spending favouring highly visible items are associated with higher vote percentages for incumbent mayors seeking re-election. Our results also indicate that the political payoff to opportunistic spending increased after democracy became well-established in the country.Voting functions, opportunism, local governments, elections, Portugal.

The determinants of vote intentions in Portugal

This paper offers additional insights on the interactions between economics and politics in Portugal. We use an unexplored data set consisting of monthly polls on vote intentions for the main political parties in Portugal, since 1986. Results indicate that: (1) socialist governments had less electoral support than social democratic governments; (2) social democratic governments enjoyed a honeymoon period with the electorate while socialist governments did not; (3) vote intentions for incumbent parties tend to decrease with time in office; (4) voters hold incumbents responsible for the evolution of the economy; (5) the socialists are more penalized for rises in unemployment than are the social democrats.voting functions, responsibility hypothesis, Portugal, vote intentions.

A Convergência das Redes de Dados e Voz na Força Aérea Portuguesa

Esta investigação tem como objectivo analisar a possibilidade da convergência das tecnologias de dados e de voz na Força Aérea Portuguesa (FAP). A crescente utilização da Voz sobre Internet Protocol (VoIP) e o consequente abandono progressivo das redes tradicionais de voz é um dos temas mais discutidos, actualmente no mundo empresarial. A troca de informação, seja ela dados, voz ou imagem, com segurança, fiabilidade e rapidez, em tempo real, ou quase, são hoje requisitos fundamentais para a eficaz acção de comando e controlo, numa organização militar. Foram identificadas neste trabalho, em termos gerais, duas grandes redes que suportam as comunicações e sistemas de informação da FAP: a rede de dados e a rede de voz. Da análise da problemática poderá concluir-se que a tecnologia existente, assim como a infra-estrutura que suporta estas redes, permitirá, com vantagem, conduzir à convergência. Abstract: This investigation’s goal is to analyze the possibility of convergence of data and voice technologies in Portuguese Air Force (POAF). The growing utilization of Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) with the consequence of the progressive abandon of the traditional voice networks is one of the most discussed subjects in today’s business world. The exchange of information, either data, voice or image, with security, reliability and speed, in real or near-real time, are, today, fundamental requirements to an efficient command and control action, in military domain. In this essay, two large networks were identified to carry all the communications and information traffic of POAF: a data network and a voice network. From the analysis we conclude that the existing technology with the infrastructure that supports these two networks will, with inherent advantages, lead to convergenc