A Climate-Change Policy Induced Shift from Innovations in Energy Production to Energy Savings

We develop an endogenous growth model with capital, labor and energy as production factors and three productivity variables that measure accumulated innovations for energy production, energy savings, and neutral growth. All markets are complete and perfect, except for research, for which we assume that the marginal social value exceeds marginal costs by factor four. The model constants are calibrated so that the model reproduces the relevant trends over the 1970-2000 period. The model contains a simple climate module, and is used to assess the impact of Induced Technological Change (ITC) for a policy that aims at a maximum level of atmospheric CO2 concentration (450 ppmv). ITC is shown to reduce the required carbon tax by about a factor 2, and to reduce costs of such a policy by about factor 10. Numerical simulations show that knowledge accumulation shifts from energy production to energy saving technology.Induced technological change, Environmental taxes, Partial equilibrium

Induced Technological Change under Technology Competition

We develop a partial one-sector model with capital, natural resources, and labor as production factors, and endogenous technological change through research. Production exhibits increasing returns to scale. We compare the response of output and resource use to a change in resource prices with and without induced technological change (ITC). It is shown that induced technological change is insignificant in reducing resource use when there is one representative technology and output demand is inelastic to prices. In contrast, substantial gains from ITC appear when we allow for two competing technologies that can be employed for production, while these technologies are good substitutes. Also, in case of two technologies, conditions are specified under which multiple balanced growth paths exist, and it is shown that because of ITC, a temporary resource tax can lock out the economy from a resource intensive path and lock in to a resource extensive path.Induced technological change, environmental taxes, partial equilibrium

The Value of ITC under Climate Stabilization

We assess the effect of ITC in a global growth model, DEMETER-1CCS, with learning by doing where energy savings, an energy transition, and carbon capturing and sequestration (CCS) are the main options for emissions reductions. The model accounts for technology based on learning by doing embodied in capital installed in previous periods. We have run five scenarios, one baseline scenario in which climate change policy is assumed absent, and four stabilization scenarios in which atmospheric CO2 concentrations are stabilized at 550, 500, 450, and 400 ppmv. We find that the timing of emission reductions and the investment strategy is relatively independent of the endogeneity of technological change. The vintages structure of production is more important. But ITC reduces costs by about factor 2, though these benefits only materialize after some decades.Energy, Carbon taxes, Endogenous technological change, Niche markets

Are EU Environmental Policies Too Demanding for New Members States?

In 2004, ten new states entered the European Union. Relative to the pre-2004 member states, these accession states have lower environmental standards, and some worry that it will be too demanding for these new EU members to fully comply with European environmental provisions. In this paper, we assess one rationale for such harmonization. Specifically, we analyze the determinants of environmental policies’ stringency, and show that differences in corruption levels are more important as explanatory factor when compared to income differentials. Since high levels of corruption characterize some countries in the enlarged EU, we argue that this is a good reason for an upward harmonization of environmental policies at the EU level.Corruption, European union, Environmental policy

Natural Resources: A Blessing or a Curse?

We examine empirically the effect of natural resource abundance on economic growth. We find that natural resources have a negative impact on growth when considered in isolation, but a positive impact on growth when including in the analysis other variables such as corruption, investments, openness, terms of trade, and schooling, and treating these variables as independent. However, when we take account of the effect of natural resources on the other variables and furthermore consider the indirect effect on growth, that is, when we examine possible transmission channels, we find a strong negative effect of natural resources on growth. Finally, we calculate the relative importance of each transmission channel.Natural Resources, growth, transmission channels

Strategic Resource Dependence

We consider a situation where an exhaustible-resource seller faces demand from a buyer who has a perfect substitute but there is a time-to-build delay for the substitute. We that find in this simple framework the basic implications of the Hotelling model (1931) are reversed: over time the stock declines but supplies increase up to the point where the buyer decides to switch. Under such a threat of demand change, the supply does not reflect the true current resource scarcity but leads to increased future scarcity, felt during the transition to the substitute supplies. The analysis suggests a perspective on costs of oil dependence.Dynamic Bilateral Monopoly, Markov-Perfect Equilibrium, Depletable Resources, Energy, Alternative Fuels, Oil Dependence

An Empirical Contribution to the Debate on Corruption,Democracy and Environmental Policy

Both theoretical and empirical studies have shown that democracy and corruption have substantial influence on environmental policy. In this paper, we empirically analyse whether both democracy and corruption are equally important determinants. When these variables are jointly included as explanatory variables, we find that corruption stands out as an important determinant of environmental policies, while democracy has a very limited impact. Further on, we discuss our results in the context of the Environmental Kuznets Curve literature. We argue that institutional disarray that plagues developing countries will make it problematic for them to have increasing environmental policy stringency combined with increasing incomes. Finally, and more optimistically, when we consider our results in the context of institutions and growth, we conclude that there is a possibility of reaching a double dividend. Reductions in corruption would induce both higher growth rates and stricter environmental policies. Thus, institutional improvement is an extremely valuable step in achieving sustainable development.Corruption, Democracy, Development, Environmental policy, Institutions

Induced Technological Change Under Carbon Taxes

We develop an economic partial equilibrium model for energy supply and demand with capital and labor as production factors, and endogenous technological change through learning by research and learning by doing. Our model reproduces the learning curve typical for (bottom-up) energy system models. The model also produces an endogenous S-curved transition from fossil fuel energy sources to carbon-free energy sources over the coming two centuries. We use the model to study changes in fossil fuel and carbon-free energy use and carbon dioxide emissions induced by carbon taxes. It is shown that induced technological change accelerates the substitution of carbon-free energy for fossil fuels substantially, and can increase by factor 5 the cumulative emission reductions achieved through a carbon tax over the period 2000-2100.Induced technological change, Environmental taxes, Partial equilibrium, Learning by doing

Institutional Explanations of Economic Development: the Role of Precious Metals

Recent research has emphasized the influence of colonization on the institutional development and economic performance in former European colonies. Where European colonizers settled, they replicated the investment-conducive institutions found at home. It has been argued that a harsh disease environment and a highly urbanized native population worked against colonization. We show evidence for another significant element explaining the endogenous character of colonization strategies and the formation of institutions. We find the presence of precious metals, gold and silver, to imply an increase in settlements, and an improvement in institutional quality, even when correcting for settlements. Highly valued gold and silver reserves attracted Europeans in large numbers and resulted in an institutional upgrade of mineral-rich areas.Precious metals, Institutions, Economic development