Generic algorithm for multicriteria ranking of crop technological options based on the “Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution” using ShinyApps

Many agricultural research and development programs aiming at enhancing tradeoffs related to different adoption, management and policy decisions face a methodological problem in which multi-criteria ranking is used to reach acceptable compromises between different objectives (e.g. those of farms, research managers, donors or policy makers). A typical situation is where many farm management options will result in different conflicting economic, social and environmental impacts. Ranking these options and the choice of those to promote is challenging. The literature provides a set of methodological solutions that need background data organization and simulation through coding using different computing software. Here, we provide a generic solution and friendly interface, made on Shiny (an R-package) based on the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). We apply this method for ranking different crop technological products of grain legumes and dry cereals based on their respective impacts on poverty, child malnutrition and economic benefits in more than 40 countries in eight different geographic zones across South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. • The developed algorithms and interface can help rank different options based on the weights (preferences) of their respective outcome indicators. • The interface allows for changing the weights (preferences) and automatically generates new ranking tables and graphs accordingly, which can serve for scenario simulations, which saves time compared to manually performing these calculations

The impact of non-tariff barriers on maize and beef trade in East Africa

On March 2, 2004, the East African Community (EAC) member states signed the protocol for the establishment of the East African Community Customs Union, which commits them, among others, to eliminate non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to increase intraregional trade. However, several NTBs are still applied by member states, raising concerns among policy makers and the business community. There is, however, no information about the magnitude of the impact of these NTBs. This study identifies the existing NTBs on maize and beef trade in East Africa and quantifies their impact on trade and the welfare of EAC citizens using a Spatial Equilibrium Model (SEM). Data on NTBs were collected from traders and transporters of maize and beef cattle in East Africa. In addition, the study found that the main types of NTBs within the three founding members of the EAC (Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda) are similar. They include administrative requirements (mainly licenses, municipal and council permits), taxes/duties (mainly excise and cess duty), roadblocks, customs barriers, weighbridges, licensing, corruption (e.g., through bribes) and transiting. The results of the welfare analysis vary across the three countries, but the net monetary gains are positive in all cases. A complete abolishment or a reduction of the existing NTBs in maize and beef trade increases intra-EAC maize and beef trade flows, with Kenya importing more maize from both Uganda and Tanzania, while Uganda’s beef exports to Kenya and Tanzania increase. As a result, positive net welfare gains are attained for the entire EAC maize and beef sub-sectors. In all cases, those who gain from the proposed reductions in NTBs can potentially compensate the losers, leading to potential improvements in welfare. These findings give compelling evidence in support of the elimination of NTBs within the EAC customs union. The study recommends taking a regional approach to eliminating the existing NTBs since they are similar across the member countries and across commodities so as to exploit economies of scale. Other policy recommendations include streamlining of administrative procedures at border points to improve efficiency, and speeding up the implementation of procedures at point of origin and at the border points. Finally, the study recommends the need to design and implement monitoring systems to provide feedback to the relevant authorities on the implementation of measures to remove unnecessary barriers to trade within the EAC region

Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security

Article purchasedAchieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these threats and weighing possible solutions requires a robust multidisciplinary approach. One such approach integrates biophysical modeling with economic modeling to explore the combined effects of climate stresses and future socioeconomic trends, thus providing a more accurate picture of how agriculture and the food system may be affected in the coming decades. We review and analyze the literature on this structural approach and present a case study that follows this methodology, explicitly modeling drought and heat tolerant crop varieties. We show that yield gains from adoption of these varieties differ by technology and region, but are generally comparable in scale to (and thus able to offset) adverse effects of climate change. However, yield increases over the projection period are dominated by the effects of growth in population, income, and general productivity, highlighting the importance of joint assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers to better understand climate impacts and responses

The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols

Climate change is expected to alter a multitude of factors important to agricultural systems, including pests, diseases, weeds, extreme climate events, water resources, soil degradation, and socio-economic pressures. Changes to carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, andwater (CTW) will be the primary drivers of change in crop growth and agricultural systems. Therefore, establishing the CTW-change sensitivity of crop yields is an urgent research need and warrants diverse methods of investigation. Crop models provide a biophysical, process-based tool to investigate crop responses across varying environmental conditions and farm management techniques, and have been applied in climate impact assessment by using a variety of methods (White et al., 2011, and references therein). However, there is a significant amount of divergence between various crop models’ responses to CTW changes (R¨otter et al., 2011). While the application of a site-based crop model is relatively simple, the coordination of such agricultural impact assessments on larger scales requires consistent and timely contributions from a large number of crop modelers, each time a new global climate model (GCM) scenario or downscaling technique is created. A coordinated, global effort to rapidly examine CTW sensitivity across multiple crops, crop models, and sites is needed to aid model development and enhance the assessment of climate impacts (Deser et al., 2012)..

What do we know about the future of agri-food systems in Eastern and Southern Africa?

Key messages - Food demand in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) is expected to be 3 to 9 times higher by 2050 (relative to 2010) depending on the emerging economic and demographic trends. - To meet demand, agri-food systems (AFS) in the region must expand and diversify. Consumption demand for meats and fruits and vegetables will more than double by 2050. These shifts create economic opportunities but also inclusivity challenges. - Transformations in the AFS must increase the sector’s resilience to supply-side shocks which threaten food security and nutrition. By 2050, climate change could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by between 13.3 and 30.5 million. - Favorable policies and investments that are country specific, inclusive, and sustainable will be powerful tools to shape and influence the AFS transition in the region

Framework for incorporating Gender Equality and Social Inclusion (GESI) elements in Climate Information Services (CIS)

We advance a gender equality and social inclusion (GESI) framework for incorporating climate information services (CIS), which is now becoming central due to the ongoing climate change and climate variability. We understand gender as a social construct of who women and men are supposed to be. Gender inequalities seem to be enduring such that, despite innovations in agricultural and climate information technologies, unequal gender power dynamics will still emerge. As far back as the 1960s, the gendered inequalities in accessing technologies could be identified. Such a historical analysis clearly shows that the different technological solutions are clearly embedded within the society in which they evolve in. The paper uses a literature review methodological approach whilst informing the implementation of an ongoing Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) Project. The findings reveal that unless women are intentionally included in designing and developing agricultural technologies, specifically climate information systems, there is a danger that women will be excluded from the benefits. Conway’s law clearly stipulates that technological innovations are not neutral as they are a projection of the values of their creators. It is, therefore, central to grasp the values of creators of different technological solutions and innovations. The key findings are built around the espoused conceptual framework, which has five indicators, namely: (1) gender targeting by intentional design, (2) collection of sex-disaggregated data, (3) conduct an analysis of the sex-disaggregated data, (4) dissemination of the technological options and (5) conduct continuous monitoring of gender and ongoing empowerment evaluation. The five indicator domains are further complemented by their respective assumptions. Our GESI recommendations are on the five selected indicator domains. These domains must be used within the three focal development areas: agricultural data hub, climate information services training, and flood and drought indicators, which are all being implemented in Zambia. Other AICCRA Project countries are Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, and Senegal. This paper engages why CIS has not gained significant traction in Africa, as it has not genuinely incorporated the differential gender technological nuances