Associations of risk factor burden and genetic predisposition with the 10-year risk of atrial fibrillation: observations from a large prospective study of 348,904 participants

BackgroundUnderstanding the effects of risk factor burden and genetic predisposition on the long-term risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) is important to improve public health initiatives. However, the 10-year risk of AF considering risk factor burden and genetic predisposition is unknown.MethodsA total of 348,904 genetically unrelated participants without AF at baseline from the UK were categorized into three groups: index ages 45 years (n = 84,206), 55 years (n=117,520), and 65 years (n=147,178). Optimal, borderline, or elevated risk factor burden was determined by body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption, smoking status, and history of myocardial infarction or heart failure. Genetic predisposition was estimated using the polygenic risk score (PRS), constructed using 165 predefined genetic risk variants. The combined effects of risk factor burden and PRS on the risk of incident AF in 10 years were estimated for each index age. Fine and Gray models were developed to predict the 10-year risk of AF.ResultsThe overall 10-year risk of AF was 0.67% (95% CI: 0.61-0.73%) for index age 45 years, 2.05% (95% CI: 1.96-2.13%) for index age 55 years, and 6.34% (95% CI: 6.21-6.46%) for index age 65 years, respectively. An optimal risk factor burden was associated with later AF onset regardless of genetic predisposition and sex (P ConclusionsRisk factor burden together with a genetic predisposition is associated with the 10-year risk of AF. Our results may be helpful in selecting high-risk individuals for primary prevention of AF and facilitating subsequent health interventions

Improving Estimations of Spatial Distribution of Soil Respiration Using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Algorithm and Soil Temperature as Auxiliary Data

This study was supported by the NSF China Programs (Grant No. 31300539 and 31570629) and the Public Welfare Technology Application Research Program of Zhejiang province (Grant No. 2015C31004).Soil respiration inherently shows strong spatial variability. It is difficult to obtain an accurate characterization of soil respiration with an insufficient number of monitoring points. However, it is expensive and cumbersome to deploy many sensors. To solve this problem, we proposed employing the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) algorithm, using soil temperature as auxiliary information, to study the spatial distribution of soil respiration. The BME algorithm used the soft data (auxiliary information) effectively to improve the estimation accuracy of the spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration. Based on the functional relationship between soil temperature and soil respiration, the BME algorithm satisfactorily integrated soil temperature data into said spatial distribution. As a means of comparison, we also applied the Ordinary Kriging (OK) and Co-Kriging (Co-OK) methods. The results indicated that the root mean squared errors (RMSEs) and absolute values of bias for both Day 1 and Day 2 were the lowest for the BME method, thus demonstrating its higher estimation accuracy. Further, we compared the performance of the BME algorithm coupled with auxiliary information, namely soil temperature data, and the OK method without auxiliary information in the same study area for 9, 21, and 37 sampled points. The results showed that the RMSEs for the BME algorithm (0.972 and 1.193) were less than those for the OK method (1.146 and 1.539) when the number of sampled points was 9 and 37, respectively. This indicates that the former method using auxiliary information could reduce the required number of sampling points for studying spatial distribution of soil respiration. Thus, the BME algorithm, coupled with soil temperature data, can not only improve the accuracy of soil respiration spatial interpolation but can also reduce the number of sampling points.Yeshttp://www.plosone.org/static/editorial#pee

Dielectric and AC Breakdown Properties of SiO2/MMT/LDPE Micro–Nano Composites

Low-density polyethylene (LDPE) is an important thermoplastic material which can be made into films, containers, wires, cables, etc. It is highly valued in the fields of packaging, medicine, and health, as well as cables. The method of improving the dielectric property of materials by blending LDPE with inorganic particles as filler has been paid much attention by researchers. In this paper, low-density polyethylene is used as the matrix, and montmorillonite (MMT) particles and silica (SiO2) particles are selected as micro and nano fillers, respectively. In changing the order of adding two kinds of particles, a total of five composite materials were prepared. The crystallization behavior and crystallinity of five kinds of composites were observed, the εr and tanδ changes of each material were investigated with frequency and temperature, and the power frequency (50 Hz) AC breakdown performance of materials were measured. The differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) results show that the crystallinity of the composites is higher than that of LDPE. Experimental data of dielectric frequency spectra show that the dielectric constants of micro–nano composites and composites with added MMT particles are lower than LDPE, the dielectric loss of composites can be improved by adding MMT particles. The experimental data of dielectric temperature spectra show that the permittivity of SiO2-MMT/LDPE is still at a low level under the condition of 20~100 °C. In terms of breakdown field strength, the SiO2/LDPE composite material increased by about 17% compared with the matrix LDPE, and the breakdown field strength of the materials SiO2-MMT/LDPE and MMT-SiO2/LDPE increased by about 6.8% and 4.6%, respectively

Loss Simulation Analysis and Optimization of U-Groove Leaky Coaxial Cable

Leakage coaxial cable is a kind of coaxial cable with various slot structures on the outer conductor of the cable. It can transmit signal and transmit or receive signal and has dual functions of signal transmission line and antenna. Leakage cable has the advantages of strong environmental adaptability, uniform signal coverage, and less attenuation. It is not only widely used in closed or semiclosed space with high signal reception quality, such as tunnels, subway, underground parking lot, and elevators but also can realize security and theft-proof monitoring and protection in some areas, such as oil wells, mining fields and natural resource protection areas, military fortresses, museums, airports, banks, and schools. This paper introduces the classification and electrical parameters of leaky coaxial cables. On the basis of U-groove leaky coaxial cables, the relationship between the parameters of groove holes in U-groove and the loss of leaky coaxial cables is simulated and analyzed by HFSS software. The improved method of U-groove structure is obtained, and the curved hook-groove leaky coaxial cables are designed according to this method. The simulation results show that the coupling loss of the cable is lower than that of the U-groove leakage cable, and the transmission loss is still within the national standard. It lays a theoretical foundation for the design and development of leaky coaxial cable with low coupling loss

Composite Micro-Nanoarchitectonics of MMT-SiO₂: Space Charge Characteristics under Tensile State

Low density polyethylene (LDPE) is a good insulating material which is widely used in cable materials due to its excellent insulation and processability. However, in the DC high voltage environment, pure polyethylene materials still face many problems, the most serious of which is space charge accumulation. The cable will inevitably be subjected to tensile stress during production, installation and operation. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the effect of stretching on the microstructure and space charge characteristics for polymers and their composites. In this paper, MMT/LDPE micro-composites, SiO2/LDPE nano-composites and MMT-SiO2/LDPE micro-nano-composites were prepared by melt blending. Mechanical stretching was carried out on pure LDPE materials and the above three kinds of composite materials. Each material was stretched according to four stretching ratios, which are 0%, 5%, 10% and 20%. The crystal morphology was observed by polarizing microscope (PLM), the crystallization perfection was tested by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and the space charge distribution inside each sample was measured by pulsed electro-acoustic (PEA) method. At the same time, the average charge density and apparent charge mobility for samples during depolarization were calculated and analyzed. The experimental results show that when the pure low density polyethylene sample is not stretched, its crystal structure is loose. Tensile stress can make the loose molecular chains align in LDPE and improve its crystalline structure, which is helpful to restrain the accumulation of space charge inside the sample. For MMT/LDPE, SiO2/LDPE and MMT-SiO2/LDPE composites, their internal crystal structure is compact. Stretching will destroy their original crystal structure at first, and then disorder molecular chains inside the three composite materials. With the increase of stretching ratio, the molecular chains begin to orient along the direction of force, the crystallization tends to be perfect gradually, and the space charge accumulation in samples also decreases. From the calculation results of apparent charge mobility for each sample, with the increase of stretching ratio, the trap depth and trap density inside samples firstly increased and then decreased

Design of Partial Discharge Test Environment for Oil-Filled Submarine Cable Terminals and Ultrasonic Monitoring

Based on the principle of operating an oil-filled-cable operation and the explanation of the oil-filling process provided in the cable operation and maintenance manual of submarine cables, this study investigated oil-pressure variation caused by gas generated as a result of cable faults. First, a set of oil-filled cables and their terminal oil-filled simulation system were designed in the laboratory, and a typical oil-filled-cable fault model was established according to the common faults of oil-filled cables observed in practice. Thereafter, ultrasonic signals of partial discharge (PD) under different fault models were obtained via validation experiments, which were performed by using oil-filled-cable simulation equipment. Subsequently, the ultrasonic signal mechanism was analyzed; these signals were generated via electric, thermal, and acoustic expansion and contraction, along with electric, mechanical, and acoustic electrostriction. Finally, upon processing the 400 experimental data groups, four practical parameters—maximum amplitude of the ultrasonic signal spectrum, Dmax, maximum frequency of the ultrasonic signals, fmax, average ultrasonic signal energy, Dav, and the ultrasonic signal amplitude coefficient, M—were designed to characterize the ultrasonic signals. These parameters can be used for subsequent pattern recognition. Thus, in this study, the terminal PD of an oil-filled marine cable was monitored

Investigation on electrical tree propagation in polyethylene based on etching method

To investigate the characteristic of electrical tree propagation in semi-crystalline polymers, the low-density polyethylene (LDPE) samples containing electrical trees are cut into slices by using ultramicrotome. Then the slice samples are etched by potassium permanganate etchant. Finally, the crystalline structure and the electrical tree propagation path in samples are observed by polarized light microscopy (PLM). According to the observation, the LDPE spherocrystal structure model is established on the basis of crystallization kinetics and morphology of polymers. And the electrical tree growth process in LDPE is discussed based on the free volume breakdown theory, the molecular chain relaxation theory, the electromechanical force theory, the thermal expansion effect and the space charge shielding effect

Optimization of the Electric Field Distribution at the End of the Stator in a Large Generator

The electric field distribution at the end of a large hydro-generator is highly nonuniform and prone to corona discharge, which damages the main insulation and significantly reduces the service life of the hydro-generator. In order to reduce the thickness of the main insulation and the physical size of a large hydro-generator, it is necessary to understand the distribution of the electric field at the end of its stator bar. In this paper, the stator bar at the end of a large generator is simulated using the finite element method to determine the distribution of the potential, electric field, and loss at the rated voltage, as well as to elucidate the differences between the linear corona protection, two-segment nonlinear corona protection, and three-segment nonlinear corona protection structures. The influences of the arc angle, length of each corona protection layer, intrinsic resistivity of the corona protection material, and nonlinear coefficient are also analyzed. The results manifest that the angle of the stator bar should be 22.5°, the difference in resistivity between the two adjacent corona protection coatings should not exceed two orders of magnitude, and the resistivity of the medium resistivity layer should be nearly 106 Ω·m or 107 Ω·m, for an optimal design of the corona protection structure