Long-term Outcomes in a Large Randomized Trial of HIV-1 Salvage Therapy: 96-Week Results of AIDS Clinical Trials Group A5241 (OPTIONS)

Background: Short-term (48-week) results of the OPTIONS trial showed that nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) can be safely omitted from salvage therapy as long as the regimen has a cumulative activity of >2 active antiretroviral medications. The long-term durability of this approach and outcomes in persons who have more-extensive HIV-1 drug resistance are uncertain. Methods: Participants with virologic failure and anticipated antiretroviral susceptibility received an optimized regimen and were randomized to omit or add NRTIs. A separate group with more resistance (cumulative activity ≤2 active agents) received an optimized regimen including NRTIs. Results: At week 96, among 360 participants randomized to omit or add NRTIs, 70% and 65% had HIV-1 RNA 2 active drugs. Younger people and those receiving fewer new antiretrovirals require careful monitoring. Even among individuals with more-extensive resistance, most achieve virologic suppression. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT00537394

Cumulative antiretroviral exposure measured in hair is not associated with measures of HIV persistence or inflammation among individuals on suppressive ART

Data on the relationship of antiretroviral exposure to measures of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) persistence are limited. To address this gap, multiple viral, immunologic, and pharmacologic measures were analyzed from individuals with sustained virologic suppression on therapy (median 7 years) in the AIDS Clinical Trials Group A5321 cohort. Among 110 participants on tenofovir-(TFV)-disoproxil-fumarate (TDF)/emtricitabine (FTC)-containing regimens, we found no significant correlation between hair concentrations of individual antiretrovirals (ARVs) in the regimen and measures of HIV persistence (plasma HIV-1 RNA by single copy assay, cell-associated-DNA, cell-associated RNA) or soluble markers of inflammation. These findings suggest that higher systemic ARV exposure may not impact HIV persistence or inflammation

Brief Report: HIV Antibodies Decline During Antiretroviral Therapy but Remain Correlated With HIV DNA and HIV-Specific T-Cell Responses

Background: In people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART), the relationship between HIV-specific immune responses and measures of HIV persistence is uncertain. Methods: We evaluated 101 individuals on suppressive ART in the AIDS Clinical Trials Group A5321 cohort. Cell-associated (CA) HIV DNA and RNA levels and HIV antibody concentrations and avidity to Env/p24 were measured longitudinally at years 1, 4, and 6-15 after ART initiation. Plasma HIV RNA by single copy assay and T-cell responses (IFN-γ ELISPOT) against multiple HIV antigens were measured at the last time point. Results: HIV antibody levels declined significantly with increasing time on ART (19%/year between year 1 and 4). HIV antibody levels correlated with T-cell responses to HIV Pol (r = 0.28, P = 0.014) and to Nef/Tat/Rev (r = 0.34; P = 0.002). HIV antibody and T-cell responses were positively associated with HIV DNA levels; for example, at the last time point (median 7 years on ART), r = 0.35 for antibody levels and HIV DNA (P < 0.001); r = 0.23 for Nef/Tat/Rev-specific T-cell responses and HIV DNA (P = 0.03). Neither antibody nor T-cell responses correlated with cell-associated HIV RNA or plasma RNA by single copy assay. Conclusions: In individuals on long-term ART, HIV-specific antibody and T-cell responses correlate with each other and with HIV DNA levels. The positive correlation between HIV immune responses and HIV DNA implies that the immune system is sensing, but not clearing, infected cells, perhaps because of immune dysfunction. Measuring immune responses to HIV antigens may provide insight into the impact of reservoir-reducing strategies

T cells with high PD-1 expression are associated with lower HIV-specific immune responses despite long-term antiretroviral therapy

Objective: We evaluated frequencies of T cells with high PD-1 expression (PD-1HI) before and after long-term effective antiretroviral therapy (ART), and determined if frequencies on-ART correlated positively with measures of HIV persistence and negatively with HIV-specific responses.Methods:We enrolled individuals who started ART during chronic infection and had durable suppression of viremia for at least 4 years (N=99). We assessed PD-1HI T-cell frequencies at timepoints pre-ART and on-ART using flow cytometry, and evaluated how frequencies on-ART are associated with measures of HIV persistence, HIV-specific immune responses, and immune activation levels.Results:Pre-ART, PD-1HI CD4+ T cells correlated positively with viremia and negatively with CD4+ T-cell count. At year 1 on-ART, %PD-1HI CD4+ T cells decreased but then remained stable at 4 and 6-15 years on-ART, whereas %PD-1HI CD8+ T cells on-ART remained similar to pre-ART. PD-1HI CD4+ T cells correlated positively with HIV DNA pre-ART and on-ART, and with CD4+ T-cell activation on-ART. PD-1HI CD4+ T cells negatively correlated with HIV Gag-specific and Env-specific T-cell responses but not with CMV-specific or EBV-specific responses. PD-1HI CD8+ T cells trended towards a negative correlation with responses to Gag and Env, but not to CMV and EBV.Conclusion:PD-1HI T cells persist in blood despite prolonged suppression on ART, correlate with HIV DNA levels, and are associated with lower HIV-specific T-cell responses but not CMV-specific or EBV-specific responses, suggesting that these cells are HIV-specific. The findings support evaluating PD-1 blockade strategies for their effect on HIV persistence and HIV-specific immunity

Brief Report: No Evidence for an Association between Statin Use and Lower Biomarkers of HIV Persistence or Immune Activation/Inflammation during Effective ART

Background: Statins exert pleiotropic anti-inflammatory and immune-modulatory effects, which might translate into antiviral activity. We evaluated whether reported current statin exposure is associated with lower levels of markers of HIV persistence and immune activation/inflammation. Methods: We compared levels of markers of HIV viral persistence [cell-associated HIV RNA (CA-RNA), CA-DNA, and single copy assay plasma HIV RNA] and immune activation/inflammation (IL-6, IP-10, neopterin, sCD14, sCD163, and TNF-alpha) between statin users and nonusers among participants of ACTG A5321 who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) during chronic infection and maintained virologic suppression (HIV-1 RNA levels ≤50 copies/mL) for ≥3 years. Results: A total of 303 participants were analyzed. Median time on the current statin was 2.9 years (1.2-5.1). There were no differences between statin users and nonusers in levels of CA-DNA (median 650 vs. 540 copies/106 CD4+ T cells; P = 0.58), CA-RNA (53 vs. 37 copies/106 CD4+ T cells; P = 0.12), or single copy assay (0.4 vs. 0.4 copies/mL; P = 0.45). Similarly, there were no significant differences between statin users and nonusers in markers of inflammation/activation, except for IP-10 (137 vs. 118 pg/mL; P = 0.028). Findings were unchanged after adjustment for factors including pre-ART CD4 and HIV RNA, and years on ART. Conclusions: In this cohort of persons on long-term suppressive ART, current statin use was not associated with lower levels of HIV persistence or immune activation/inflammation. These results do not support a major role for statins in reducing HIV persistence, although an early transient effect cannot be excluded. Prospective, randomized studies are needed to confirm these findings

Persistent HIV-infected cells in cerebrospinal fluid are associated with poorer neurocognitive performance

BACKGROUND. Persistence of HIV in sanctuary sites despite antiretroviral therapy (ART) presents a barrier to HIV remission and may affect neurocognitive function. We assessed HIV persistence in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and associations with inflammation and neurocognitive performance during long-term ART. METHODS. Participants enrolled in the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) HIV Reservoirs Cohort Study (A5321) underwent concurrent lumbar puncture, phlebotomy, and neurocognitive assessment. Cell-associated HIV DNA and HIV RNA (CA-DNA, CA-RNA) were measured by quantitative PCR (qPCR). in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and in cell pellets from CSF. In CSF supernatant and blood plasma, cell-free HIV RNA was quantified by qPCR with single copy sensitivity, and inflammatory biomarkers were measured by enzyme immunoassay. RESULTS. Sixty-nine participants (97% male, median age 50 years, CD4 696 cells/mm3, plasma HIV RNA &lt;100 copies/mL) were assessed after a median 8.6 years of ART. In CSF, cell-free RNA was detected in 4%, CA-RNA in 9%, and CA-DNA in 48% of participants (median level 2.1 copies/103 cells). Detection of cell-free CSF HIV RNA was associated with higher plasma HIV RNA (P = 0.007). CSF inflammatory biomarkers did not correlate with HIV persistence measures. Detection of CSF CA-DNA HIV was associated with worse neurocognitive outcomes including global deficit score (P = 0.005), even after adjusting for age and nadir CD4 count. CONCLUSION. HIV-infected cells persist in CSF in almost half of individuals on long-term ART, and their detection is associated with poorer neurocognitive performance

Recommendations for analytical antiretroviral treatment interruptions in HIV research trials: report of a consensus meeting

Analytical antiretroviral treatment interruption (ATI) is an important feature of HIV research, seeking to achieve sustained viral suppression in the absence of antiretroviral therapy (ART) when the goal is to measure effects of novel therapeutic interventions on time to viral load rebound or altered viral setpoint. Trials with ATIs also intend to determine host, virological, and immunological markers that are predictive of sustained viral control off ART. Although ATI is increasingly incorporated into proof-of-concept trials, no consensus has been reached on strategies to maximise its utility and minimise its risks. In addition, differences in ATI trial designs hinder the ability to compare efficacy and safety of interventions across trials. Therefore, we held a meeting of stakeholders from many interest groups, including scientists, clinicians, ethicists, social scientists, regulators, people living with HIV, and advocacy groups, to discuss the main challenges concerning ATI studies and to formulate recommendations with an emphasis on strategies for risk mitigation and monitoring, ART resumption criteria, and ethical considerations. In this Review, we present the major points of discussion and consensus views achieved with the goal of informing the conduct of ATIs to maximise the knowledge gained and minimise the risk to participants in clinical HIV research

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. Methods: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. Findings: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. Interpretation: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation