International Trade Patterns and Labor Markets – An Empirical Analysis for EU Member States

During the last decades, international trade flows especially of the industrialized countries allegedly became more and more intra-industry. At the same time, employment perspectives particularly of the low-skilled by tendency deteriorated in these countries. This phenomenon is often traced back to the fact that intra-industry trade, which should theoretically involve low labor market adjustment, became increasingly vertical in nature and might thus entail labor market disruptions. Against this background, the present paper investigates the relationship between international trade patterns and selected labor market indicators in European countries, with a focus on vertical intra-industry trade. As the results show, neither inter- nor vertical intra-industry trade do have a verifiable effect on wage spread in EU member states. As far as structural unemployment is concerned, the latter increases only with the degree of countries’ specialization on capi-tal intensively manufactured products in inter-industry trade relations. Only for unemployment of the less-skilled, a slightly significant impact of superior vertical intra-industry trade seems to exist. However, the link between unemployment of the lower qualified and inter-industry specialization on labor intensive goods as well as parts and components imports is considerably higher.intra-industry trade, trade and labor market interactions, unemployment

Determinants of International Fragmentation of Production in the European Union

The last decades were characterized by large increases in world trade, not only in absolute terms, but also in relation to world GDP. This was in large parts caused by increasing exchanges of parts and components between countries as a consequence of international fragmentation of production. Apparently, greater competition especially from the Newly Industrializing and Post-Communist Economies prompted firms in ‘high-wage’ countries to exploit international factor price differences in order to increase their international competitiveness. However, theory predicts that, beside factor price differences, vertical disintegration of production should be driven by a multitude of additional factors. Against this background, the present paper reveals empirical evidence on parts and components trade as an indicator for international fragmentation of production in the European Union. On the basis of a panel data approach, the main explanatory factors for international fragmentation of production are determined. The results show that, although their influence can not be neglected, factor price differences are only one out of many causes for shifting production to or sourcing components from foreign countries.economic integration, international fragmentation of production

Has the Euro Increased International Price Elasticities?

This paper analyzes the role of common data problems when identifying structural breaks in small samples. Most notably, we survey small sample properties of the most commonly applied endogenous break tests developed by Brown, Durbin, and Evans (1975) and Zeileis (2004), Nyblom (1989) and Hansen (1992), and Andrews, Lee, and Ploberger (1996). Power and size properties are derived using Monte Carlo simulations. Results emphasize that mostly the CUSUM type tests are affected by the presence of heteroscedasticity, whereas the individual parameter Nyblom test and AvgLM test are proved to be highly robust. However, each test is significantly affected by leptokurtosis. Contrarily to other tests, where skewness is far more problematic than kurtosis, it has no additional effect for any of the endogenous break tests we analyze. Concerning overall robustness the Nyblom test performs best, while being almost on par to more recently developed tests in terms of power.European Integration, introduction of the Euro, import price elasticity, panel data, Kalman-filter, structural vector autoregression

Ölpreis und Außenhandel: Wie stark profitieren Industrieländer vom “Recycling“ der Petrodollars?

Since 2004, prices for crude oil nearly tripled at international commodity markets. In the wake of the oil crises of the 1970s and ‘80s, numerous empirical studies analysing the macroeconomic effects of sharp increases in commodity prices were carried out pointing at the risks of oil price rises for GDP growth in oil-importing countries. However, in most of these analyses, the impact of oil price increases on international trade of oil-importing countries, which gained in importance in the course of globalisation, is considered only marginally. This is especially the case for the additional revenues of oil-exporting countries spent in large parts for imports from and investment in the industrialised economies. The present article examines the impact of oil price increases on merchandise exports and imports of single oil-importing industrialised countries. The results show that the curbing effects on merchandise exports are lower than on imports. Whereas import demand responds disproportionally high on the decline in consumption and investment in consequence of oil price increases, the effects on merchandise exports are ambivalent. On the one hand, exports to oil-importing trading partner countries decline due to the local economic downturns, but on the other, exports to oil-exporting countries sharply increase. As a consequence, the negative impact of rising oil prices on macroeconomic activity in oil-importing countries is lowered by the external sector due to growing net exports.

Exportweltmeister trotz Euro-Höhenflug: Zum Einfluss der Wechselkurse auf die deutschen Ausfuhren

In the first decade after its introduction, the Euro didn’t just hold up well, but compared to important currencies even appreciated considerably. Of course, exchange rate risks were noticeably lowered by introducing the single currency, since the bulk of EMU Member States’ exports are conducted within the currency union. Nevertheless, a strong Euro is unfavourable especially for open economies like Germany. The article investigates the effects of exchange rate movements on German exports over time. The analyses reveal a downward impact of nominal effective exchange rates, not only for total, but also for exports to countries outside the currency union. Although an increasing pass-through of exchange rate changes to export prices is apparently at hand, further reasons for the dwindling effect of nominal exchange rates on exports are likely to exist. In this context, it is shown that exports are less sensitive not only with respect to nominal, but also with respect to real effective exchange rate changes, suggesting a declining price elasticity of demand. Instead, exports are increasingly determined by economic activity in trading partner countries. In consequence of its geographic proximity, Germany did particularly benefit from the economic upswing in Eastern Europe, overlaying the appreciation of the Euro. Additionally, the latter could hardly impair German export industries due to their specialization on capital and high-quality consumer goods less vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations.

Wohin steuert die EU? Politische Mehrheitsverhältnisse nach der Osterweiterung

Durch die Osterweiterung der EU dürfte als Folge der jetzt heterogeneren ökonomischen Strukturen der Gemeinschaft die Pluralität der politischen Interessen der Mitgliedstaaten zugenommen haben. Welche Auswirkungen hat die Osterweiterung der EU auf die weitere Entwicklung des Integrationsprozesses und insbesondere auf die zukünftige Ausgestaltung der EU-Politiken? --

Ostdeutsche Exportorientierung trotz Erschließung neuer Märkte immer noch gering

German reunification entailed severe adjustment processes in East German export industries. With political and economic transition in Eastern Europe, at that time the main export market for East German producers, export demand initially collapsed in the early 1990s. Additionally, the introduction of the Deutschmark in Eastern Germany amounted to a massive revaluation, and international competitiveness of East German producers deteriorated. However, manufacturers in the New Federal States opened up new markets, especially in Western Europe and the Americas. As a consequence, after the downturn of construction activity and investment in the mid-1990s, international trade became the driving force of GDP-growth in Eastern Germany. Although since then, goods exports of the New Federal States grew twice as much as those of Western Germany, export ratio (goods exports as a percentage of GDP) only amounts to 22 per cent in Eastern Germany, compared to 42 per cent in the western part of the country. Even in comparison to Eastern European countries in transition, openness to trade of the New Federal States is still comparatively low. As an empirical analysis shows, this must be largely traced back to smaller firm sizes in the New Federal States as well as to the lower importance of manufacturing industries, which are traditionally more export-oriented. Moreover, East German manufacturers largely specialized on intermediate inputs, which are supplied to final assembly lines in Western Germany, but are not recorded as exports. Thereby, East German export performance is considerably underestimated.

Außenhandel als Wachstumsmotor für Ostdeutschland

Seit der zweiten Hälfte der 90er Jahre wird das Wachstum in Ostdeutschland zunehmend vom Außenhandel getragen. Dabei lagen in den vergangenen zehn Jahren die Exportzuwächse der neuen Bundesländer – ausgehend von einem niedrigen Niveau – deutlich über den Zuwächsen in Westdeutschland. Wo liegen die Exportpotentiale Ostdeutschlands? --

Perspektiven der Gemeinschaftspolitiken in der erweiterten EU

In der Arbeit wird die Frage analysiert, welche Konsequenzen sich aus der Osterweiterung für die zukünftige Ausgestaltung der EU-Politiken ergeben können. Die mit der Erweiterung einhergehende zunehmende Heterogenität der ökonomischen Strukturen innerhalb der Europäischen Union lässt auf eine gleichermaßen zunehmende Pluralität der politischen Interessen der Mitgliedstaaten schließen, so dass in der erweiterten Union unter Umständen andere Interessen dominieren und andere einflussreiche Ländergruppen existieren können als dies in der alten EU der Fall war. Für ausgewählte Politikbereiche zeigt die empirische Analyse, dass sich in der erweiterten Europäischen Union verschiedene Ländergruppen mit relativ heterogenen politischen Interessen gegenüberstehen, wodurch der politische Entscheidungsprozess auf europäischer Ebene durch die Erweiterung aller Voraussicht nach deutlich erschwert werden wird