3 research outputs found
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Generalized Costs of Travel by Solo and Pooled Ridesourcing vs. Privately Owned Vehicles, and Policy Implications
The emergence of “3 Revolutions” in transportation (automation, electrification and shared mobility) presents a range of questions regarding how consumers will travel in the future, and under what conditions there may be rapid adoption of various services. These include individual on-demand taxi-style services, shared mobility in pooled services, and use of public transit, all with or without drivers. There is now enough data and estimates on the costs of these service combinations, and in some cases ridership data, to consider how consumers are making choices and could do so in the future as things evolve. This project involved: (a) reviewing existing literature and data on consumer mode and vehicle choice; (b) developing new “generalized cost” estimates that combine monetary and non-monetary (e.g., hedonic) components of travel choice, notably incorporating value of time; and (c) conducting a comparison of monetary and generalized trip cost for a range of trip types across travel options in the near term (2020) and longer term (2030-35). Three main travel options were considered: privately owned vehicles, ridesourced solo trips, and ridesourced pooled trips. Consideration of internal combustion vs. battery electric and, in the longer term, automated technology was also core to the analysis. The trips considered include urban and suburban types in the San Francisco metro area, using actual trip characteristics. The results suggest that in the near-term, solo ridesourcing is likely to be perceived as significantly more expensive (in terms of monetary and time costs) than pooled ridesourcing or solo private vehicle trips except for those with a very high value of time. Solo ridesourcing does better in dense, slow, urban trips than in faster suburban trips. In the longer term, with automated driverless vehicles, solo ridesourcing could become the cheapest mode for many travelers in a range of situations. This report includes an initial consideration of the implications of these policies for affecting travel choices, presumably to push choices toward pooled ridesourcing as a sustainable option. VMT-based pricing, pricing that could be adjusted with vehicle occupancy, and parking-related approaches are described. A large price signal might be needed to shift travel, given some of the differences in generalized cost found in this analysis
Recommended from our members
Generalized Costs of Travel by Solo and Pooled Ridesourcing vs. Privately Owned Vehicles, and Policy Implications
The emergence of “3 Revolutions” in transportation (automation, electrification and shared mobility) presents a range of questions regarding how consumers will travel in the future, and under what conditions there may be rapid adoption of various services. These include individual on-demand taxi-style services, shared mobility in pooled services, and use of public transit, all with or without drivers. There is now enough data and estimates on the costs of these service combinations, and in some cases ridership data, to consider how consumers are making choices and could do so in the future as things evolve. This project involved: (a) reviewing existing literature and data on consumer mode and vehicle choice; (b) developing new “generalized cost” estimates that combine monetary and non-monetary (e.g., hedonic) components of travel choice, notably incorporating value of time; and (c) conducting a comparison of monetary and generalized trip cost for a range of trip types across travel options in the near term (2020) and longer term (2030-35). Three main travel options were considered: privately owned vehicles, ridesourced solo trips, and ridesourced pooled trips. Consideration of internal combustion vs. battery electric and, in the longer term, automated technology was also core to the analysis. The trips considered include urban and suburban types in the San Francisco metro area, using actual trip characteristics. The results suggest that in the near-term, solo ridesourcing is likely to be perceived as significantly more expensive (in terms of monetary and time costs) than pooled ridesourcing or solo private vehicle trips except for those with a very high value of time. Solo ridesourcing does better in dense, slow, urban trips than in faster suburban trips. In the longer term, with automated driverless vehicles, solo ridesourcing could become the cheapest mode for many travelers in a range of situations. This report includes an initial consideration of the implications of these policies for affecting travel choices, presumably to push choices toward pooled ridesourcing as a sustainable option. VMT-based pricing, pricing that could be adjusted with vehicle occupancy, and parking-related approaches are described. A large price signal might be needed to shift travel, given some of the differences in generalized cost found in this analysis
Recommended from our members
Analysis and Projections of BEVs, Renewable Electricity, and GHG Reductions through 2050
This report makes an initial investigation into the potential for combining very high penetration levels of electric vehicles with similarly very high penetration of variable renewable electricity (VRE) in California. A literature review is performed regarding the potential for high levels of EV sales and VRE penetration at both the U.S. and California level. Such scenarios have been developed by a number of researchers, such as U.S. national laboratories for the White House (under the Obama Administration), and by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) for the California Energy Commission. Such studies indicate that both of these “extreme” futures are entirely plausible and have the potential to coexist. However, none of the reviewed studies has undertaken detailed analysis of how large numbers of EVs could interact with and support a VRE-dominated system, and how these might interact in a useful way. This could include grid-to-vehicle (G2V) and vehicle- to-grid (V2G) movement of electricity, with vehicle batteries providing large scale electricity storage.We undertake our own preliminary simulation for a 2030 and 2050 scenario for California, using an 8760 hours (full year) electricity demand profile and VRE generation example. We assume a ramp- up of VRE to 60% of all electricity generation by 2030 and 100% by 2050, with a similar increase in the EV share of new LDV sales, creating a significant stock (about 7 million) by 2030 and nearly complete transition (to over 20 million vehicles) by 2050. Using an “averages, peaks and valleys” analysis on the electric side, and a typical spare battery storage potential on the vehicle side, our simulation shows that by 2030 a large share of excess VRE electricity generation could be stored, and a large share of electricity shortfall from VRE could be provided, by electric vehicle batteries throughout the year, though there would be many cases where they cannot provide full coverage of these situations. However by 2050, if nearly 100% of the fleet were EVs, only about half of their available, spare capacity is needed to store the excess electricity from a full VRE system on the highest generation day and only about 40% would be needed to store and supply the shortage from lack of VRE generation on the highest shortfall day.While these results are encouraging, a deeper simulation is needed to provide a true hour-by-hour assessment of battery use and the incidence of storage need compared to driving need. Management of charging times that could not be assessed here may also play a critical role. In addition, our initial assessment only covers a single day shortfall. Shortfalls could occur for longer periods, particularly if the VRE electricity system were sized to take better advantage of seasonal storage options. Vehicle batteries are best suited to very short duration storage and may not be adequate to keep the electricity reliable for many consecutive days of shortfall. Hydrogen (H2) has the potential to be a longer-term energy storage option and could be stored in fuel cell vehicle tanks (and the H2 system associated with generating, storing and distributing H2 to those tanks). The next stage of our research will involve running a full simulation using our (ITS-Davis) California ZEV power model (“CALZEV”), a version of the larger Message model, applied to consider both electricity and hydrogen (with large numbers of both of these types of vehicles) in order to: 1) gauge the relative storage potential and cost over a range of time frames and VRE scenarios, and 2) estimate the relative value and possible synergies in a system with both types of vehicles and fuels