Analysis of Barriers in the Transition toward Sustainable Mobility in the Netherlands

The transition toward a sustainable transportation system in the Netherlands takes place in the context of the Dutch “Transition management policy framework”. We study four tech¬nological routes that the “Platform Sustainable Mobility” has selected for this goal: (1) hybridization of vehicles, (2) liquid biofuels, (3) natural gas as a transportation fuel and (4) hydrogen as a transportation fuel. These technological routes all envision large-scale changes in vehicle propulsion technology and fuel infrastructure. Furthermore, they compete for the scarce resources available to invest in new (fuel) infrastructures, which implicates that these ‘transition paths’ are also interdependent at the level of the mobility system. The main outcome of the analysis is the identification of barriers that are currently blocking the transition toward sustainable mobility. Barriers are classified as being related to (1) technology and vehicle development, (2) the availability of (fuel) infrastructures, and (3) elements of the institutional infrastructure. The transition management framework currently misses guidelines for coping with (competing) technologies that each requires large infrastructural investments. We further argue that avoiding undesired lock-ins and creating a beneficial institutional context for sustainable mobility cannot be pursued at the transition path level. Therefore, we recommend that a more systemic approach should be taken to the tran¬si¬tion to sustainable mobility, in which the inter¬dependencies between the transition paths are critically assessed and in which the possibilities to legitimize sustainable mobility as a whole should be used.Innovation, Transition management, Sustainable Mobility, Barriers

A complex systems methodology to transition management

There is a general sense of urgency that major technological transitions are required for sustainable development. Such transitions are best perceived as involving multiple transition steps along a transition path. Due to the path dependent and irreversible nature of innovation in complex technologies, an initial transition step along some preferred path may cut off paths that later may turn out to be more desirable. For these reasons, initial transition steps should allow for future flexibility, where we define flexibility as robustness regarding changing evidence and changing preferences. We propose a technology assessment methodology that identifies the flexibility of initial transition steps in complex technologies. We illustrate our methodology by an empirical application to 2646 possible future car systems.NK-model, complexity, flexibility, irreversibility, path dependence, transition path, transition management, sustainable development, car technology

Flexible transition strategies towards future well-to-wheel chains: an evolutionary modelling approach

Well to wheel (WTW) analyses mainly focus on alternative road fuel/vehicle systems that are very different from the current crude oil based individual transport system. A large share of WTW chains evaluated require changes in the energy source, new fuel production facilities, different fuel distribution systems and also modifications of the vehicles. An immediate transition to such a new system would be an unprecedented technological discontinuity. Historical examples of successful technological changes are characterized by stepwise transitions of subsystems. In this paper, we present a model that identifies likely sequences of stepwise transitions in analogy to the fitness landscape model in evolutionary biology. Applying this methodology allows for a dynamic interpretation of otherwise static WTW information. We show that sequences of transitions are path dependent, so that current decisions predetermine the future WTW system. We, therefore, argue that flexible initial transition steps that allow for different transition paths later on are favorable. Results suggest that improvements of vehicle technologies are most flexible if decision makers focus on decreasing WTW energy requirements. A full transition to diesel, as a first step, is advisable if WTW greenhouse gases should be reduced.Alternative fuels, Hydrogen, Lock-in, Fitness-landscape

The separation of economic versus EA parameters in EA-learning.

Agent-based computational economics (ACE) combines elements from economics and computer science. In this paper, we focus on the relation between the evolutionary technique that is used and the economic problem that is modeled. Current economic simulations often derive parameter settings for the genetic algorithm directly from the values of the economic model parameters. In this paper we show that this practice may hinder the performance of the GA and thereby hinder agent learning. More specifically, we show that economic model parameters and evolutionary algorithm parameters should be treated separately by comparing two widely used approaches to population learning with respect to their convergence properties and robustnes

Stabilization of tag-mediated interaction by sexual reproduction in an evolutionary agent system

The evolution of cooperation in a system of agents playing the iterated prisoner's dilemma (IPD) is investigated. We present results for the standard two-person IPD as well as the more general N-person IPD (NIPD) game. In our computational model, agents can recognize each other and decide whether to interact or not, based upon ``tags'' (labels). We consider the evolutionary stability of the evolving populations. Previous work is extended by introducing sexual reproduction (recombination) of agents and by analyzing its influence on the evolving populations. We observed the occasional formation of very stable cooperative societies, as opposed to previous results without sexual reproduction. These cooperative societies are able to resist invasions of ``mimics''(defecting agents with the tag of a cooperating agent)

Exploration and exploitation in energy RD&D budget allocation: an international comparison

Atlanta Conference on Science and Innovation Policy 2011For policymakers RD&D portfolio management is thus a problem of exploration and exploitation, of striking a balance between allocating funds to the further development of existing technological options or to the search for potentially successful future technological options. This balance between exploration and exploitation is the topic of the current paper. The allocation decision for an individual nation state depends both on existing national capacities and on international developments. Policy evaluation exercises, be they ex ante, in process, or ex post, are an important input to such budget allocation decisions.Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Researc

for Electronic Markets ” funded by NWO, project 612-60-008. CIP-DATA LIBRARY TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITEIT EINDHOVEN

commissie aangewezen door het College voor Promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op donderdag 7 oktober 2004 doo

Evoluation agent-based economics

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Strategies for the Diffusion of Innovations on Social Networks

We investigate the spread of innovations on a social network. The network consists of agents that are exposed to the introduction of a new product. Consumers decide whether or not to buy the product based on their own preferences and the decisions of their neighbors in the social network. We use and extend concepts from the literature on epidemics and herd behavior to study this problem. The central question of this paper is whether firms can learn about the network structure and consumer characteristics when only limited information is available, and use this information to evolve a successful directed-advertising strategy. In order to do so, we extend existing models to allow for heterogeneous agents and both positive and negative externalities. The firm can learn a directed-advertising strategy that takes into account both the topology of the social consumer network and the characteristics of the consumer. Such directed-advertising strategies outperform random advertising. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005agents, learning, heterogeneous agents,

Fundamental Results on Evolutionary Simulations of Socio-economic Systems: Introduction to the Special Issue

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