Short-Term Capital Flows, The Real Economy and Income Distribution in Developing Countries

The volatility of short-term capital flows (or 'capital surges') is now recognized as a major problem for macroeconomic management in developing countries; but the consequences for the 'real' economy - that is, the behaviour of government, firms and households which subsequently translates into investment, growth, employment and welfare - is less well understood. Short-term capital flow instability arises from the desire of investors to hold liquid assets in the face of uncertainty; affecting the real economy both through variations in both prices such as the interest rate and the exchange rate, and quantities such as levels of bank credit and government bond sales. In this chapter, government expenditure is shown to respond in an asymmetric manner to sudden changes in investor perceptions of fiscal solvency associated with portfolio capital surges. The impact of short flows on output and investment by firms through the availability of bank credit is also found to be large and asymmetric. The macroeconomic effect of capital surges on employment levels and the real wage rate is shown to arise from their influence on real exchange rates and domestic demand levels, although whether employment or wages adjust depends the monetary stabilization policy adopted. The chapter concludes with some implications of the analysis for longer-term growth and policy design.

Intervention Versus Regulation: The Role of the IMF in Crisis Prevention and Management

In this working paper, E. V. K. FitzGerald, of the Finance and Trade Policy Research Center at the Oxford University, investigates roles that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might play given its mandate to provide institutional support for a global capital market that can promote trade and investment and given current worldwide economic instabilities, such as highly volatile exchange rates and financial and macroeconomic instabilities experienced in nonindustrialized countries. The experience of steady growth and price stability under the Bretton Woods system is often cited in support of a return to a managed fixed- rate system. FitzGerald contends, however, that although exchange rate instability might be related to the major financial crises of the past 20 years, such instability is not the source of financial crises; rather, factors such as the worldwide integration of financial markets and the development of heterogeneous financial instruments have created new sources of instability. In the new worldwide financial system exchange rates function as asset prices (that is, they reflect international capital flows) as well to regulate trade flows. Current account balances are, then, more likely a function of internal imbalances than of trade imbalances. Moreover, because interest rates reflect the desire to hold a given stock of bonds, their fluctuation does not cause international capital markets to clear (that is, cause saving to equal investment on a global scale).

Demonstration of a 1/4 cycle phase shift in the radiation-induced oscillatory-magnetoresistance in GaAs/AlGaAs devices

We examine the phase and the period of the radiation-induced oscillatory-magnetoresistance in GaAs/AlGaAs devices utilizing in-situ magnetic field calibration by Electron Spin Resonance of DiPhenyl-Picryl-Hydrazal. The results confirm a $f$-independent 1/4 cycle phase shift with respect to the $hf = j\hbar\omega_{c}$ condition for $j \geq 1$, and they also suggest a small ($\approx$ 2%) reduction in the effective mass ratio, $m^{*}/m$, with respect to the standard value for GaAs/AlGaAs devices.Comment: 4 pages, 4 color figure

Reusable Agena study. Volume 2: Technical

The application of the existing Agena vehicle as a reusable upper stage for the space shuttle is discussed. The primary objective of the study is to define those changes to the Agena required for it to function in the reusable mode in the 100 percent capture of the NASA-DOD mission model. This 100 percent capture is achieved without use of kick motors or stages by simply increasing the Agena propellant load by using optional strap-on-tanks. The required shuttle support equipment, launch and flight operations techniques, development program, and cost package are also defined

The detailed optical light curve of GRB 030329

(Abridged) We present densely sampled BVRI light curves of the optical transient associated with the gamma-ray burst GRB 030329, the result of a coordinated observing campaign conducted at five observatories. Augmented with published observations of this GRB, the compiled optical dataset contains 2687 photometric measurements, obtained between 78 minutes and 79 days after the burst. We show that the underlying supernova 2003dh evolved faster than, and was probably somewhat fainter than the type Ic SN 1998bw, associated with GRB 980425. We find that our data can be described by a broken power-law decay perturbed by a complex variable component. The early- and late-time decay slopes are determined to be ~1.1 and ~2, respectively. Assuming this single power-law model, we constrain the break to lie between ~3 and ~8 days after the burst. This simple, singly-broken power-law model, derived only from the analysis of our optical observations, may also account for available multi-band data, provided that the break happened ~8 days after the burst. The more complex double-jet model of Berger et al. provides a comparable fit to the optical, X-ray, mm and radio observations of this event. We detect a significant change in optical colors during the first day. Our color analysis is consistent with a cooling break frequency sweeping through the optical band during the first day. The light curves of GRB 030329 reveal a rich array of variations, superposed over the mean power-law decay. We find that the early variations are asymmetric, with a steep rise followed by a relatively slower (by a factor of about two) decline. The variations maintain a similar time scale during the first four days, and then get significantly longer.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ with minor changes. See the GRB030329 Data Treasury at http://wise-obs.tau.ac.il/GRB030329

Emotional Eating and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the Police Force: The Carolina Blue Project

There is an association between emotional eating and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; however, little is known about this association in the police force. This study explores the associations between emotional eating and CVD risk factors in law enforcement officers in North Carolina. Four hundred and five officers completed The Emotional Eating Scale, and 221 of them completed the assessment for CVD-related markers. Descriptive statistics, Pearson’s correlation, and multiple linear regression analyses were performed. Emotional eating in response to anger was significantly positively associated with body weight (β = 1.51, t = 2.07, p = 0.04), diastolic blood pressure (β = 0.83, t = 2.18, p = 0.03), and mean arterial pressure (β = 0.84, t = 2.19, p = 0.03) after adjusting for age and use of blood pressure medicine. Emotional eating in response to depression was significantly positively associated with triglycerides (β = 5.28, t = 2.49, p = 0.02), while the emotional eating in response to anxiety was significantly negatively associated with triglycerides (β = −11.42, t = −2.64, p = 0.01), after adjusting for age and use of cholesterol medicine. Our findings offer new insights to address emotional eating and lower CVD risk in law enforcement officers

Radiation-induced oscillatory magnetoresistance as a sensitive probe of the zero-field spin splitting in high mobility GaAs/AlGaAs devices

We suggest an approach for characterizing the zero-field spin splitting of high mobility two-dimensional electron systems, when beats are not readily observable in the Shubnikov-de Haas effect. The zero-field spin splitting and the effective magnetic field seen in the reference frame of the electron is evaluated from a quantitative study of beats observed in radiation-induced magnetoresistance oscillations.Comment: 4 pages, 4 color figure