Mountain-pine beetle outbreaks and shifting social preferences for ecosystem services

Conventional wisdom appears to implicate climate change as the root cause of the unprecedented mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak currently underway in the western United States. While climate change is undoubtedly a factor, historic changes in public forest management have resulted in greater numbers of large-diameter host trees in MPB habitat. We present a model that integrates standard economic and ecological principles in an attempt to clarify the roles of climate change and public forest management in the current MPB outbreak. Using data on timber sales, climate change and MPB populations, model simulations illustrate how an increased emphasis on non-timber ecosystem services induced a regime shift from climate-independent to climate-dependent disturbance processes, amplifying the current MPB outbreak.mountain pine beetle; climate change; forests

Exports and Externalities: the other side of trade and ecological risk and Technology Diffusion in a Competitive World

This paper develops a general equilibrium model to measure welfare effects of taxes for correcting environmental externalities caused by domestic trade, focusing on exter- nalities that arise through exports. Externalities from exports come from a number of sources. Domestically owned ships, planes, and automobiles can become contaminated while visiting other regions and bring unwanted pests home, and species can be in- troduced by contaminated visitors that enter a region to consume goods and services. The paper combines insights from the public finance literature on corrective environ- mental taxes and trade literature on domestically provided services. We find that past methods for measuring welfare effects are inadequate for a wide range of externalities and show the most widely used corrective mechanism, taxes on the sector imposing the environmental externality, may often do more harm than good. The motivation for this paper is the expansion of invasive species' ranges within the United States. We apply our analytical model to the specifc example of quagga and zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha and Dreissena rostiformis bugenis) invasion into the U.S Pacific Northwest.environmental regulation, tax interactions, invasive species, environment and trade

A Bioeconomic Model of the Great Salt Lake Watershed

We present a computable general equilibrium model of the interface between the Great Salt Lake (GSL) ecosystem and the regional economy that impacts the ecosystem. With respect to the ecosystem, the model treats the various representative species as net-energy maximizers and bases population dynamics on the period-by-period sizes of surplus net energy. Energy markets-where predators and prey exchange biomass-determine equilibrium energy prices. With respect to the regional economy, we model five production sectors (at the aggregate industry level)-brine cyst harvesters, the mineral-extraction industry, agriculture, recreation, and a composite-good industry-as well as the household sector. By performing dynamic simulations of the joint ecosystem-regional economy model, we isolate the effects of period-byperiod stochastic changes in salinity levels and an initial shock to species-population levels on the ecological and economic variables of the model

Stepping stones for biological invasion: A bioeconomic model of transferable risk

Herein we model the widespread dispersal and management of an invasive species as a weak-link public good. The risk of introduction is driven in part by economic activity, is influenced by policies directed at the risk, and economic activity responds/adapts to the risk. Framed around recent introductions and rapid spread of dreissenid mussels in the Western United States, we find three key results. First, partial equilibrium estimates of welfare loss are significantly overestimated relative to general equilibrium estimates. If ecosystem services and market goods are substitutes the partial equilibrium bias is greater than if they are compliments. Second, well-intended policies do not necessarily reduce overall risk; risk reduction actions can transfer risk to another time or location, or both, which may increase total risk. Third, policies of quotas and inspections have to be extreme to improve welfare, with inspections having advantages over quotas.bioeconomic, invasive species, risk, weak-link, welfare, Environmental Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, Q2, Q26, Q57,

Integration-Valuation Nexus in Invasive Species Policy

This paper reviews recent work examining two topics of economic research vital for invasive species policy-integration and valuation. Integration requires bioeconomic models that blend invasive biology with economic circumstances and the feedback loops between the two systems. Valuation requires nonmarket valuation associated with human and environmental damages posed by invasive species. We argue for a second-level of integration in invasive species economics-valuation based on integration models. Policy prescriptions based on integration models need valuation work; valuation surveys need integration models-the two are complements. Valuation could be enhanced with integration in mind; integration could be made better with valuation in mind. An example from blending the two research areas is presented and its merits demonstrated.invasive species, integrated economic-ecological modeling, nonmarket valuation, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Syphilis Cycles

Syphilis has re-emerged as a global public health issue. In lesser developed countries, millions of people are contracting the disease, which can be fatal without access to proper treatment. In developed countries, prevalence is much lower but has cycled around endemic levels for decades. The authors of a recent high-profile article in the journal Nature argue that these regular fluctuations in syphilis prevalence are driven primarily by endogenous disease dynamics rather than social or behavioral factors, as often theorized. We explore this hypothesis by extending the classic SIRS epidemiological model to incorporate forward-looking, rational individuals. This economic SIRS model (or E-SIRS) model is consistent with microeconomic fundamentals as it is derived from the behavioral equations of rational individuals. In contrast to the Nature article, the E-SIRS model predicts that human preferences over health and sexual activity are central to the nature of syphilis cycles. We find that low-activity individuals will behave in a manner that significantly dampen the cycles, while high-activity individuals will tend to exacerbate the cycles, a phenomenon we refer to as rational dynamic resonance. The economic SIRS model also provides additional insights into two failed attempts by the U.S. government to eradicate syphilis from the U.S. population

Mountain-pine beetle outbreaks and shifting social preferences for ecosystem services

Conventional wisdom appears to implicate climate change as the root cause of the unprecedented mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak currently underway in the western United States. While climate change is undoubtedly a factor, historic changes in public forest management have resulted in greater numbers of large-diameter host trees in MPB habitat. We present a model that integrates standard economic and ecological principles in an attempt to clarify the roles of climate change and public forest management in the current MPB outbreak. Using data on timber sales, climate change and MPB populations, model simulations illustrate how an increased emphasis on non-timber ecosystem services induced a regime shift from climate-independent to climate-dependent disturbance processes, amplifying the current MPB outbreak

Mountain-pine beetle outbreaks and shifting social preferences for ecosystem services

Conventional wisdom appears to implicate climate change as the root cause of the unprecedented mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak currently underway in the western United States. While climate change is undoubtedly a factor, historic changes in public forest management have resulted in greater numbers of large-diameter host trees in MPB habitat. We present a model that integrates standard economic and ecological principles in an attempt to clarify the roles of climate change and public forest management in the current MPB outbreak. Using data on timber sales, climate change and MPB populations, model simulations illustrate how an increased emphasis on non-timber ecosystem services induced a regime shift from climate-independent to climate-dependent disturbance processes, amplifying the current MPB outbreak

Syphilis Cycles

Syphilis has re-emerged as a global public health issue. In lesser developed countries, millions of people are contracting the disease, which can be fatal without access to proper treatment. In developed countries, prevalence is on the rise and has cycled around endemic levels for decades. We investigate syphilis dynamics by extending the classic SIRS epidemiological model to incorporate forward-looking, rational individuals and the AIDS epidemic. The integrated economic-epidemiological model shows that human preferences over health and sexual activity are central to the nature of syphilis cycles. We find that low-activity individuals will behave in a manner that significantly dampen the cycles, while high-activity individuals will tend to exacerbate the cycles, a phenomenon we refer to as rational dynamic resonance. The model also provides insights into two failed attempts by the U.S. government to eradicate syphilis from the U.S. population