MODELLING THE DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS OF AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE DEVELOPMENT POLICY EVALUATION MODEL (DEVPEM)

The purpose of the Development Policy Evaluation Model (DEVPEM) is to provide an appropriate modelling structure for analysing the welfare and distributional implications of alternative agricultural policies in developing countries. The aim of the model is to provide illustrative results that show how structural diversity among developing countries, and systemic differences from developed OECD countries, can affect the outcomes of alternative policy interventions. The model is relatively stylised, seeking to capture, as simply as possible, four critical aspects of rural economies in developing countries that are important when evaluating the impacts of agricultural and trade policies. These are: (1). The role of the household as both a producer and a consumer of food crops. (2). High transaction costs of participating in markets, resulting in a subsistence sector that often is important in terms of the number of households and the amount of food production it encompasses. (3). Market linkages that can transmit impacts of policy and market shocks among heterogeneous rural producers and consumers, particularly via factor markets (for labour, land or capital, when those markets exist). (4). The imperfect convertibility of land from one use to another.International Relations/Trade,

República Dominicana: Posibles efectos de la liberalización comercial en los hogares rurales, a partir de un modelo desagregado para la economía rural, con énfasis en la pobreza, el género y la migración

El objetivo de este estudio es analizar los posibles impactos de la apertura comercial en los hogares rurales dominicanos. El análisis de impactos económicos se realizó utilizando un modelo de equilibrio general aplicado (MEGA) que captura los efectos directos e indirectos de cambios de política comercial en variables críticas que afectan la toma de decisiones en los hogares rurales. Dichas variables incluyeron producción, ingreso, empleo, cambio tecnológico, precios y migración. El análisis realizado concluye que dicha apertura traerá mayores beneficios de lo anticipado a los hogares rurales más vulnerables, siempre y cuando las reducciones en los precios de los productos básicos de consumo que se esperan como resultado de la liberación, lleguen al consumidor final y se acompañen de medidas que estimulen el ajuste productivo hacia actividades de mayor valor agregado.Desarrollo rural, Acuerdos comerciales, Pobreza, Migración y migrantes, Mujeres, acuerdos comerciales, población rural

Agricultural mechanization in the dry zone

This research highlight evaluates the extent of agricultural mechanization in four townships in Myanmar’s Dry Zone. It provides evidence that rapid mechanization is underway. Mechanical land preparation is now commonplace, due to thriving machine rental markets, falling equipment prices, and better financing options. The mechanization of harvesting and threshing is also occurring, but is concentrated in rice. These findings suggest that Dry Zone agriculture is at a technological crossroads.Non-PRIFPRI5; Feed the Future Innovation Laboratory for Food Security Policy (FSP)DSG

Synopsis: Economy-wide impacts of the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)

The findings from this study reveal that, on an economy-wide ba-sis, the benefits of PSNP significantly exceed the cost of PSNP transfers. New income created by PSNP benefits households that do not receive cash transfers; these non-beneficiaries benefit as markets transmit PSNP impacts to them through local and national markets. Documenting the total benefits, including benefits to non-beneficiaries, is critical to garner support for PSNP. Our analysis shows that PSNP achieves both social and productive goals by raising income in beneficiary households while stimulating local and national production. This should be good news to both finance and social welfare ministries.Non-PRIFPRI2; CRP2; ESSPDSGD; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM

Spice price spikes: Simulating impacts of saffron price volatility in gendered local economy-wide model

PRIFPRI3; ISIDSG

Rural economic spillovers from fish farming and agriculture in the Ayeyarwady delta

This study reveals that aquaculture is more profitable for fish farmers than crop farming, and generates large income spillovers for the local economy, thus presenting important opportunities for rural growth. Furthermore, small-scale fish farms, while currently somewhat less productive than large farms overall, generate larger indirect spillover effects per acre of land. Viewed through an economywide lens, small-scale aquaculture has substantial potential to support smallholder livelihoods whilst creating large income spillovers that principally benefit landless households and raise rural incomes. These findings imply that any aquaculture development strategy should focus on fish farms under 10 acre in size, rather than the large-scale farm development prioritized in the past. First, small-scale farmers should be empowered to use their ponds with maximum efficiency by, for instance, facilitating access to sources of credit and information. Second, regulations should be revised to alloNon-PRFeed the Future Innovation Laboratory for Food Security Policy (FSP); IFPRI5DSG

Living like there's no tomorrow: The psychological effects of an earthquake on savings and spending behavior

PRIFPRI3; DCA; ISI; CRP2; Capacity Strengthening; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; IFPRIOA;DSGD; PIM; ECAOCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM

Modelling the economic impact of the Rohingya influx in Southern Bangladesh

In the context of the massive influx of Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals to Bangladesh, this paper aims to evaluate the potential consequences on the Southern Bangladesh economy. It adopts an economywide perspective to study the impacts of increased labor supply and increased consumer demand in a general equilibrium framework, using a Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) model. The model is used to illustrate the potential effect of a large arrival of displaced populations on wages, the supply and demand of goods, and incomes of migrant and host populations. Simulations enable comparisons between possible scenarios, including two options for the size of the market being impacted (either the smaller Cox’s Bazar District, or the larger Chittagong Division) and several options for aid provisions from international actors. The databases used are the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN) and Host Community Household Survey carried out by IFPRI, BIDS, WFP and ACF in late 2018 and the official Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2016. We find that if the migrants enter the Cox Bazar labor markets only, their large number could potentially lead to a large drop in wage levels of around 30%. However, under similar conditions their impact in the much larger Chittagong Division would be limited to a drop of less than 4%. Cash transfers to migrants could mitigate the wage effects by stimulating local demand, but this effect is limited. Some local households may be hurt due to lower wages and higher prices. Matched transfers to local populations and investments in local industry could potentially offset some of these negative impacts.Non-PRIFPRI1; CRP2; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural EconomiesDSGD; PHND; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM

Agricultural mechanization in the dry zone of Myanmar

This brief evaluates the extent of agricultural mechanization in four townships in Myanmar’s Dry Zone. It provides evidence that rapid mechanization is underway. Mechanical land preparation is now common-place, due to thriving machine rental markets, falling equip-ment prices, and better financing options. The mechanization of harvesting and threshing is also occurring but is concentrated in rice. These findings suggest that Dry Zone agriculture is at a technological crossroads.Non-PRReSAKSS Asia; IFPRI1; CRP2; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural EconomiesDSGD; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM