The strategic motive to sell forward: experimental evidence

We test the strategic motive to sell forward in experimental Cournot duopoly and quadropoly environments with either a finite (exogenous close) or an infinite (endogenous close) number of forward markets. In the exogenous close case experienced subjects do not avail themselves of the forward markets and production mostly occurs in the spot market phase. In a forward market duopoly experienced subjects achieve nearly the monopoly output level. For the quadropoly output levels are more competitive and are near the Cournot Nash equilibrium. In both cases output produced is much less than the Allaz-Vila (1993) prediction. The results with inexperienced subjects, however, are in line with theory and as reported in Le-Coq and Orzen (2006). We implement the case of infinitely many forward periods using the endogenous close rule. In this case the results both for a forward market duopoly and quadropoly are much more competitive both with inexperienced and experienced subjects. Unlike the exogenous stopping rule, under the endogenous rule subjects sell forward in the forward markets and find it hard to coordinate their actions

Multiple openings of forward markets: experimental evidence

We test the strategic motive to sell forward in experimental Cournot duopoly and quadropoly environments with multiple forward markets. Using random matching, we test two versions of forward markets with finite (Allaz and Vila, 1993) and indefinite number of periods. We find that the results for the Allaz and Vila (1993) model are remarkably close to the predicted theoretical results for both duopolies and quadropolies. We then test a version of the model to allow for indefinitely many periods. There are multiple equilibria in this theoretical model, including both the competitive and collusive outcomes. We find that the initial "collusive hypothesis" is not ratified, and that outcomes are nearly competitive. Sales take place mostly in the first few openings of futures markets. Again, these results hold for both duopolies and quadropolies.

The strategic motive to sell forward: experimental evidence

We test the strategic motive to sell forward in experimental Cournot duopoly and quadropoly environments with either a finite (exogenous close) or an infinite (endogenous close) number of forward markets. In the exogenous close case experienced subjects do not avail themselves of the forward markets and production mostly occurs in the spot market phase. In a forward market duopoly experienced subjects achieve nearly the monopoly output level. For the quadropoly output levels are more competitive and are near the Cournot Nash equilibrium. In both cases output produced is much less than the Allaz-Vila (1993) prediction. The results with inexperienced subjects, however, are in line with theory and as reported in Le-Coq and Orzen (2006). We implement the case of infinitely many forward periods using the endogenous close rule. In this case the results both for a forward market duopoly and quadropoly are much more competitive both with inexperienced and experienced subjects. Unlike the exogenous stopping rule, under the endogenous rule subjects sell forward in the forward markets and find it hard to coordinate their actions.

The effect of experience in Cournot play

Strategic play requires that players in oligopolies be more sophisticated than in perfectly competitive markets. It thus seems reasonable to assume that player experience becomes important as the environment gets more complicated. We find that subject experience indeed plays an important role. While inexperienced symmetric duopolies play around the Nash-Cournot quantity, experienced duopolies reduce output and get closer to the monopolistic outcome. Both inexperienced and experienced symmetric quadropolies,however, produce output above the Nash-Coumot equilibrium but, even in this case, output is lower for experienced quadropolies. Experience, however, does not make markets less competitive with the introduction of cost asymmetry. Under cost asymmetry, and relative to the equilibrium prediction, high cost firms produce more output than low cost firms. Analysis of individual data tells us that experienced duopolies and quadropolies adjust output in the same direction as their rivals. Due to the strategic substitutability of quantity choice, we interpret this as an attempt at tacitly colluding. This is true for both duopolies and quadropolies.

Do we buy more or less when we want to learn? The knowledge strategies and structural forms of US cross-border acquisitions

Cross-border acquisitions may be a primary mode for accessing novel knowledge and the building up of knowledge capabilities. However, the successful exploration of novel business and/or location knowledge may require specific structural forms for the incorporation and internal transfer to occur. In this paper we examine the relationship between the knowledge strategy and the structural form of the acquisition, specifically the degree of equity acquired. Our analyses of 439 US cross-border acquisitions revealed a curvilinear effect of location-related knowledge exploration but a linear effect of business-related knowledge exploration on the structural form of cross-border acquisition. We conclude that the knowledge strategy, and perhaps the type of knowledge being sought, is related in complex manners to the structural form adopted.cross-border acquisitions, knowledge strategy, equity ownership, structural forms, learning

Application of Gravity-Geologic Method over South China Sea

The Gravity-Geologic Method (GGM) was used to estimate a bathymetry map over an area from 8.60, 110.00 to 16.90,116.40 (latitude and longitude) in the South China Sea. The goal of this thesis was to create a bathymetry map that more accurately estimates ocean bathymetry heights from an incomplete data set. This was achieved using free-air gravity anomalies obtained from satellite radar altimetry data. Through the Gravity-Geologic Method (GGM), the anomaly data was used to estimate missing data points from a set of control points taken from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) data set. The produced bathymetry map correlated more with the existing bathymetry from the GEBCO data set. Some error can be observed in the produced bathymetry map, but it was shown that accurate bathymetry could be predicted from an incomplete set of data using the GGM over the South China Sea study region.No embarg

Blinded patient preference for morphine compared to placebo in the setting of chronic refractory breathlessness – an exploratory study

Context Patients’ preference for morphine therapy has received little attention in the setting of chronic refractory breathlessness. However, this is one important factor in considering longer term therapy. Objectives The aim of this secondary analysis is to explore blinded patient preference of morphine compared to placebo for this indication and to define any predictors of preference. Methods Data were pooled from three randomized, double-blind, crossover, placebo-controlled studies of morphine (four days each) in chronic refractory breathlessness. Blinded patient preferences were chosen at the end of each study. A multivariable regression model was used to establish patient predictors of preference. Results Sixty-five participants provided sufficient data (60 males; median age 74 years; heart failure 55%, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 45%; median Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 2). Forty-three percent of participants preferred morphine (32% placebo and 25% no preference). Morphine preference and younger age were strongly associated: odds ratio = 0.85, 95% confidence interval 0.78, 0.93;

Indirect Exchange and Ruderman-Kittel-Kasuya-Yosida (RKKY) Interactions in Magnetically-Doped Graphene

crystal

The Effect of the 18-Year Old Drinking Age on Auto Accidents

The effect of Massachusetts' reduced drinking age on auto accidents is examined by employing an interrupted time series analysis of monthly accident data covering the period January, 1969, through September 1973. The data were stratified by driver age, accident type and (to a limited extent) operating-after-drinking. These raw data were adjusted using monthly mileage and seasonal indices and, where possible, a control group not affected by the drinking law. Correlograms of the adjusted series were computed to check for remaining systematic bias. Finally, the average accident rates for the adjusted, well-behaved series before and after the March 1973 change were compared using standard t-tests. Accident rates among 18-20 year olds did increase significantly-- about 40% for involvement in fatalities. Nevertheless, the results are consistent with the hypothesis that, as a result of the reduced drinking age, 18-20 year old driving-after-drinking behavior has become comparable to that of older drivers.This research was supported in part by NSF Grant GI 38004, by the MIT Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program, and by the U. S. Army Research Office (Durham) under Contract No. DA HC04-73-C-003