University drop-out. The case of Italy

We combine individual and aggregate-level level data on educational attainment to study the determinants of university drop-out in Italy, one of the worst performers among developed countries. Based on detailed information on a representative sample of secondary school graduates and on local university supply we first show that family and educational background are relevant determinants of continuation probability. In particular, our results show that accounting for enrollment-induced sample selection significantly enhances the estimated coefficients with respect to standard probit analysis. We then combine our estimates with data on family and educational backgrounds of secondary school graduates in comparable European countries and find that differences in endowments only explain a minor fraction of the observed cross-country gap in studentsÂ’ attainments.University drop-out, School transitions, Social mobility, Tobit estimation

Identifying the Sources of Local Productivity Growth

Using firm-level based TFP indicators (as opposed to employment-based proxies) we estimate the effects of alternative sources of dynamic externalities at the local geographic level. Contrary to previous empirical work, we find that industrial specialization and scale indicators positively affect TFP growth at the city-industry level, while we do not find evidence that either the degree of local competition or productive variety impact on subsequent productivity growth. Employment-based regressions yield nearly the opposite results, in line with previous empirical work. We show that such regressions could suffer from serious identification problems when interpreted as evidence of dynamic externalities. This calls into question the conclusions of the existing literature on dynamic agglomeration economies.local growth, productivity, dynamic externalities

Service regulation and growth: evidence from OECD countries

We study the effects of anti-competitive service regulation by examining whether OECD countries with less anti-competitive regulation see a better economic performance of manufacturing industries using less-regulated services more intensively. Our results indicate that lower service regulation translates into faster value added, productivity, and export growth of downstream service-intensive industries. The negative growth-effect of anti-competitive regulation is particularly relevant in the case of professional services and energy provision. Our estimates prove robust to accounting for alternative forms of regulation (such as product and labor market regulation), for the degree of financial development and also to a number of other specification checks.Regulation, financial development, sector analysis, growth

People I Know: Workplace Networks and Job Search Outcomes

We examine the role of information networks in job-search outcomes of displaced individuals. We draw on longitudinal Social Security records covering the universe of worker-firm matches in a tight labor market in Northern Italy. Unlike previous research, we focus on workplace networks whose labor market attributes we are able to describe extensively. A workplace network is defined as all coworkers a displaced individual worked with prior to displacement. Estimates of network effects are thus affected by omitted variable bias if the labor market sorts workers across firms along relevant determinants of search outcomes and network characteristics or if past coworkers are exposed to the same shocks. The empirical strategy accounts for these possibilities by comparing subsequent outcomes of workers displaced by the same firm; in addition, we exploit the longitudinal dimension to develop controls for potential residual within-firm heterogeneity. In particular, we control for pre-displacement wages and employment status as well as descriptions of pre-displacement firms and their workforce. ContactsÂ’ labor market attributes have a significant effect on a variety of job search outcomes. Employed contacts significantly increase the probability of re-employment. They are more effective if they experienced a recent job change and when geographically and technologically closer to the displaced. Stronger ties and lower competition for the available information also speed up re-employment. While largely irrelevant for unemployment duration, contactsÂ’ quality is a significant determinant of entry wages and subsequent job stability.Unemployment, Wages, Job Stability, Social Networks

Politicians at work. The private returns and social costs of political connections

We quantify the private returns and social costs of political connections exploiting a unique longitudinal dataset that combines matched employer-employee data for a representative sample of Italian firms with administrative archives on the universe of individuals appointed in local governments over the period 1985-97. According to our results, the revenue premium granted by political connections amounts to 5% on average, it is obtained through changes in domestic sales but not in exports, and it is not related to improvements in firm productivity. The connection premium is positive for upstream producers for the public administration only, and larger (up to 25%) in areas characterized by high public expenditure and high levels of corruption. These findings suggest that the gains in market power derive from public demand shifts towards politically connected firms. We estimate such shifts reduce the provision of public goods by approximately 20%.political connections, social welfare, productivity, employer-employee data

The private and social return to schooling in Italy

We estimate the private (individual) and social return to schooling in Italy and four macro regions. Our estimates take into account the effects of schooling on employment and wages as well as the key features of the Italian tax and social insurance system. We find that the individual return to schooling compares favorably to the return to financial assets (especially in the South). At the social level, the available infrastructure-capital data indicates that the return to schooling exceeds that to infrastructures in the South.Education, Regional Development, Wages, Employment probability

The effect of employment protection legislation and financial market imperfections on investment : evidence from a firm-level panel of EU countries

This paper analyzes the joint effect of EPL and financial market imperfections on investment, capital-labour substitution, labour productivity and job reallocation in a cross-country framework. In the spirit of Rajan and Zingales (1998) and Ciccone and Papaioannou (2006), we exploit variation in the need for reallocation at the sectoral and aggregate level to assess the average effect of EPL on firms’ policies. Then, exploiting firm-level information we study if the effect of EPL is stronger in firms with lower levels of internal resources. We find that, on average, EPL reduces investment per worker, capital per worker and value added per worker in high reallocation sectors relative to low reallocation sectors. The reduction in the capital-labour ratio is less pronounced in firms with higher internal resources, suggesting that financial constraints exacerbate the negative effects of EPL on capital deepenin

International financial flows and misallocation

We study the impact of international financial flows on credit allocation exploiting the early 2000s boom of capital inflows in Italy. Using detailed bank-firm matched data we compare the patterns of credit allocation of banks with different exposure to the shock. Exposed banks significantly expand lending to high productivity and low credit-constraint firms. Constrained but high productivity firms also benefit from the shock. These results hold using alternative measures of firm productivity and credit constraints or of bank exposure to the flows, and do not seem to be driven by concurrent changes in bank funding or by the sorting of borrowers and lenders. We also find that the patterns of credit allocation induced by capital inflows have a positive, albeit small, impact on aggregate TFP. These results show that international financial flows did not contribute to increase misallocation

The private and social return to schooling in Italy

We estimate the private (individual) and social return to schooling in Italy and its macro regions. Our estimates take into account the effects of schooling on employment and wages, as well as the key features of the Italian tax and social security system. We find that the individual return to schooling compares favourably with the return to financial assets (especially in the South). At the social level, the available infrastructure-capital data indicates that the return to schooling exceeds that to infrastructures in the South. Recent evidence on peer effects and the consequences of increased education for health and crime suggest the overall social effects of schooling could be even greaterschooling, wages, employment probability

The unintended consequences of an Italian labour protection law

Fewer people were hired; firms increased their capital stock but their productivity declined, write Federico Cingano, Marco Leonardi, Julián Messina and Giovanni Pic