Effects and Costs of Colorectal Cancer Screening and Follow-up after Polypectomy

Colorectal cancer is a major public health problem in many countries. In 1997, approximately 8,500 new cases of colorectal cancer were diagnosed in the Netherlands and more than 4,000 individuals died from this disease. Screening for colorectal cancer in the general population has the potential to save lives. Potential screening tests are the fecal occult blood test (FOBT), colonoscopy and sigmoidoscopy. FOBT tests detect blood in stool from bleeding asymptomatic colorectal cancer or large adenomas. Sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy are both endoscopic tests that visualize the colorectal tract. If adenomas, precursors of cancer, are detected at the screening test, they can be removed immediately. It is recommended that patients with removed adenomas undergo regular colonoscopic surveillance. In this thesis, aspects of colorectal cancer screening and of colonoscopic surveillance (follow-up) of adenoma patients are studied by analysis of relevant data and with the use of the MISCAN-COLON model. This is a micro-simulation model that simulates a large number of fictitious individual life histories. The three main uses of the model are analysis of data of population studies in the field of screening and surveillance of adenoma patients, testing of hypotheses about the natural history of adenomas and colorectal cancer, and evaluation of screening policies. General conclusions The MISCAN-COLON model is a useful tool for the analysis of screening and surveillance studies and for the evaluation of screening strategies. A wide variation is seen among the different models regarding the assumptions on the adenoma dwell time and the percentage of colorectal cancers that originate from adenomas. Screening for colorectal cancer using fecal occult blood tests reduces colorectal cancer mortality and is cost-effective

Endoscopic colorectal cancer screening: a cost-saving analysis

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive analyses have shown that screening for cancer usually induces net costs. In this study, the possible costs and savings of endoscopic colorectal cancer screening are explored to investigate whether the induced savings may compensate for the costs of screening. METHODS: A simulation model for evaluation of colorectal cancer screening, MISCAN-COLON, is used to predict costs and savings for the U.S. population, assuming that screening is performed during a period of 30 years. Plausible baseline parameter values of epidemiology, natural history, screening test characteristics, and unit costs are based on available data and expert opinion. Important parameters are varied to extreme but plausible values. RESULTS: Given the expert opinion-based assumptions, a program based on every 5-year sigmoidoscopy screenings could result in a net savings of direct health care costs due to prevention of cancer treatment costs that compensate for the costs of screening, diagnostic follow-up, and surveillance. This result persists when costs and health effects are discounted at 3%. The "break-even" point, the time required before savings exceed costs, is 35 years for a screening program that terminates after 30 years and 44 years for a screening program that continues on indefinitely. However, net savings increase or turn into net costs when alternative assumptions about natural history of colorectal cancer, costs of screening, surveillance, and diagnostics are considered. CONCLUSIONS: Given the present, limited knowledge of the disease process of colorectal cancer, test characteristics, and costs, it may well be that the induced savings by endoscopic colorectal cancer screening completely compensate for the costs

Chapter 10: Deciding Whether to Complement a Systematic Review of Medical Tests with Decision Modeling

Limited by what is reported in the literature, most systematic reviews of medical tests focus on “test accuracy” (or better, test performance), rather than on the impact of testing on patient outcomes. The link between testing, test results and patient outcomes is typically complex: even when testing has high accuracy, there is no guarantee that physicians will act according to test results, that patients will follow their orders, or that the intervention will yield a beneficial endpoint. Therefore, test performance is typically not sufficient for assessing the usefulness of medical tests. Modeling (in the form of decision or economic analysis) is a natural framework for linking test performance data to clinical outcomes. We propose that (some) modeling should be considered to facilitate the interpretation of summary test performance measures by connecting testing and patient outcomes. We discuss a simple algorithm for helping systematic reviewers think through this possibility, and illustrate it by means of an example

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses of a colorectal cancer screening programme in a high adenoma prevalence scenario using MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model

This economic evaluation showed a screening intervention with a major health gain that also produced net savings when a long follow-up was used to capture the late economic benefit. The number of colonoscopies required was high but remain within the capacity of the Basque Health Service. So far in Europe, no other population Colorectal Cancer screening programme has been evaluated by budget impact analysis

Cost-effectiveness analysis of 3-D computerized tomography colonography versus optical colonoscopy for imaging symptomatic gastroenterology patients.

BACKGROUND: When symptomatic gastroenterology patients have an indication for colonic imaging, clinicians have a choice between optical colonoscopy (OC) and computerized tomography colonography with three-dimensional reconstruction (3-D CTC). 3-D CTC provides a minimally invasive and rapid evaluation of the entire colon, and it can be an efficient modality for diagnosing symptoms. It allows for a more targeted use of OC, which is associated with a higher risk of major adverse events and higher procedural costs. A case can be made for 3-D CTC as a primary test for colonic imaging followed if necessary by targeted therapeutic OC; however, the relative long-term costs and benefits of introducing 3-D CTC as a first-line investigation are unknown. AIM: The aim of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of 3-D CTC versus OC for colonic imaging of symptomatic gastroenterology patients in the UK NHS. METHODS: We used a Markov model to follow a cohort of 100,000 symptomatic gastroenterology patients, aged 50 years or older, and estimate the expected lifetime outcomes, life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs (£, 2010-2011) associated with 3-D CTC and OC. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the base-case cost-effectiveness results to variation in input parameters and methodological assumptions. RESULTS: 3D-CTC provided a similar number of LYs (7.737 vs 7.739) and QALYs (7.013 vs 7.018) per individual compared with OC, and it was associated with substantially lower mean costs per patient (£467 vs £583), leading to a positive incremental net benefit. After accounting for the overall uncertainty, the probability of 3-D CTC being cost effective was around 60 %, at typical willingness-to-pay values of £20,000-£30,000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: 3-D CTC is a cost-saving and cost-effective option for colonic imaging of symptomatic gastroenterology patients compared with OC

Precision measurements of the top quark mass from the Tevatron in the pre-LHC era

The top quark is the heaviest of the six quarks of the Standard Model. Precise knowledge of its mass is important for imposing constraints on a number of physics processes, including interactions of the as yet unobserved Higgs boson. The Higgs boson is the only missing particle of the Standard Model, central to the electroweak symmetry breaking mechanism and generation of particle masses. In this Review, experimental measurements of the top quark mass accomplished at the Tevatron, a proton-antiproton collider located at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, are described. Topologies of top quark events and methods used to separate signal events from background sources are discussed. Data analysis techniques used to extract information about the top mass value are reviewed. The combination of several most precise measurements performed with the two Tevatron particle detectors, CDF and \D0, yields a value of \Mt = 173.2 \pm 0.9 GeV/$c^2$.Comment: This version contains the most up-to-date top quark mass averag

Number and Size Distribution of Colorectal Adenomas under the Multistage Clonal Expansion Model of Cancer

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is believed to arise from mutant stem cells in colonic crypts that undergo a well-characterized progression involving benign adenoma, the precursor to invasive carcinoma. Although a number of (epi)genetic events have been identified as drivers of this process, little is known about the dynamics involved in the stage-wise progression from the first appearance of an adenoma to its ultimate conversion to malignant cancer. By the time adenomas become endoscopically detectable (i.e., are in the range of 1–2 mm in diameter), adenomas are already comprised of hundreds of thousands of cells and may have been in existence for several years if not decades. Thus, a large fraction of adenomas may actually remain undetected during endoscopic screening and, at least in principle, could give rise to cancer before they are detected. It is therefore of importance to establish what fraction of adenomas is detectable, both as a function of when the colon is screened for neoplasia and as a function of the achievable detection limit. To this end, we have derived mathematical expressions for the detectable adenoma number and size distributions based on a recently developed stochastic model of CRC. Our results and illustrations using these expressions suggest (1) that screening efficacy is critically dependent on the detection threshold and implicit knowledge of the relevant stem cell fraction in adenomas, (2) that a large fraction of non-extinct adenomas remains likely undetected assuming plausible detection thresholds and cell division rates, and (3), under a realistic description of adenoma initiation, growth and progression to CRC, the empirical prevalence of adenomas is likely inflated with lesions that are not on the pathway to cancer

Colorectal cancer surveillance in Hodgkin lymphoma survivors at increased risk of therapy-related colorectal cancer: Study design

Background: Second primary malignancies are a major cause of excess morbidity and mortality in cancer survivors. Hodgkin lymphoma survivors who were treated with infradiaphragmatic radiotherapy and/or high-dose procarbazine have an increased risk to develop colorectal cancer. Colonoscopy surveillance plays an important role in colorectal cancer prevention by removal of the precursor lesions (adenomas) and early detection of cancer, resulting in improved survival rates. Therefore, Hodgkin lymphoma survivors treated with infradiaphragmatic radiotherapy and/or high-dose procarbazine could benefit from colonoscopy, or other surveillance modalities, which are expected to reduce colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Current knowledge on clinicopathological and molecular characteristics of therapy-related colorectal cancer is limited. The pathogenesis of such colorectal cancers might be different from the pathogenesis in the general population and therefore these patients might require a different clinical approach. We designed a study with the primary aim to assess the diagnostic yield of a first surveillance colonoscopy among Hodgkin lymphoma survivors at increased risk of colorectal cancer and to compare these results with different screening modalities in the general population. Secondary aims include assessment of the test characteristics of stool tests and evaluation of burden, acceptance and satisfaction of CRC surveillance through two questionnaires. Methods/Design: This prospective multicenter cohort study will include Hodgkin lymphoma survivors who survived =8years after treatment with infradiaphragmatic radiotherapy and/or procarbazine (planned inclusion of 259 participants). Study procedures will consist of a surveillance colonoscopy with removal of precursor lesions (adenomas) and 6-8 normal colonic tissue biopsies, a fecal immunochemical test and a stool DNA test. All neoplastic lesions encountered will be classified using relevant histomorphological, immunohistochemical and molecular analyses in order to obtain more insight into colorectal carcinogenesis in Hodgkin lymphoma survivors. The Miscan-model will be used for cost-effectiveness analyses. Discussion: Evaluation of the diagnostic performance, patient acceptance and burden of colorectal cancer surveillance is necessary for future implementation of an individualized colorectal cancer surveillance program for Hodgkin lymphoma survivors. In addition, more insight into treatment-induced colorectal carcinogenesis will provide the first step towards prevention and personalized treatment. This information may be extrapolated to other groups of cancer survivors. Trial registration: Registered at the Dutch Trial Registry (NTR): NTR4961