Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: A Bayesian Analysis of Structural-Break Models

Using Bayesian methods, we re-examine the empirical evidence from Ben-David, Lumsdaine and Pappell (“Unit Roots, Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence from Two Structural Breaks”, Empirical Economics, 28, 2003) regarding structural breaks in the long-run growth path of real output series for a number of OECD countries. Our Bayesian framework allows the number and pattern of structural changes in trend and variance to be endogenously determined. We find little evidence of postwar growth slowdowns across countries, and we find smaller output volatility for most of the developed countries after the end of World War II. Our empirical findings are consistent with neoclassical growth models, which predict increasing growth over the long run. The majority of the countries we analyze have grown faster in the postwar era as opposed to the period before the first break.

Affine Macdonald conjectures and special values of Felder-Varchenko functions

We refine the statement of the denominator and evaluation conjectures for affine Macdonald polynomials proposed by Etingof-Kirillov Jr. and prove the first non-trivial cases of these conjectures. Our results provide a q-deformation of the computation of genus 1 conformal blocks via elliptic Selberg integrals by Felder-Stevens-Varchenko. They allow us to give precise formulations for the affine Macdonald conjectures in the general case which are consistent with computer computations. Our method applies recent work of the second named author to relate these conjectures in the case of $U_q(\widehat{\mathfrak{sl}}_2)$ to evaluations of certain theta hypergeometric integrals defined by Felder-Varchenko. We then evaluate the resulting integrals, which may be of independent interest, by well-chosen applications of the elliptic beta integral introduced by Spiridonov.Comment: 26 pages. v3: minor edits for published versio

Estimating age-status-specific demographic rates that are consistent with the projected summary measures in family households projection

This paper proposes procedures for estimating age-status-specific demographic rates to ensure that the projected summary measures of marriage/union formation and dissolution and marital and non-marital fertility in the future years are achieved consistently. The procedures proposed in this paper can be applied in both macro and micro models for family household or actuarial/welfare projections and simulations that need the time-varying age-status-specific demographic rates as input.family demography

Estimating time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation

This article presents a procedure for estimating time-varying sex-age-specific occurrence/exposure (o/e) rates of marital status transitions to ensure that the projected life course propensities of marriage/union formation and dissolution are achieved consistently in the one-sex family status life table model. Procedures for estimating time-varying sex-age-specific marital status transition o/e rates that are consistent with the two-sex constraints and projected summary measures of marriage/union formation and dissolution in the future years in the two-sex family household projection model is proposed. The procedures proposed in this article are practically useful and can be applied in both macro and micro models for family household projections or simulations that need time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions.family, household, marriage, projections, simulation