Estimated parameters for ZIKV infection.

<p>Estimates for the basic reproduction number, <i>R</i>₀; the proportion of infected individuals that were reported as suspected cases at all sites (with reports following a negative binomial distribution with reporting proportion <i>r</i> and dispersion parameter <i>ϕ</i>); the total proportion of the population infected, including both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases; and the initial number of infectious humans, . Median estimates are given, with 95% credible intervals in parentheses. The full posterior distributions are shown in <a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726#pntd.0004726.s002" target="_blank">S2</a>–<a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726#pntd.0004726.s008" target="_blank">S8</a> Figs.</p

Estimated growth in effective reproduction number as susceptible pool increases over time.

<p>(A) Tahiti, (B) Sous-le-vent, (C) Moorea, (D) Tuamotu-Gambier, (E) Marquises, (F) Australes. Line shows median from 1,000 samples of the posterior distribution, shaded region shows 95% credible interval.</p

Human-vector transmission model schematic.

<p><i>S</i>^<i>H</i> represents the number of susceptible people, <i>E</i>^<i>H</i> the number of people incubating the virus, <i>I</i>^<i>H</i> the number of infectious people, <i>R</i>^<i>H</i> the number recovered people. Similarly, <i>S</i>^<i>V</i> represents the proportion of mosquitoes currently susceptible, <i>E</i>^<i>V</i> the proportion in their incubation period, and <i>I</i>^<i>V</i> the proportion of mosquitoes infectious. Mosquitoes are assumed to remain infectious for life. <i>β</i>_<i>V</i> is the transmission rate from humans to mosquitoes; <i>β</i>_<i>H</i> is transmission from mosquitoes to humans; 1/<i>α</i>_<i>H</i> and 1/<i>α</i>_<i>V</i> are the mean latent periods for humans and mosquitoes respectively; 1/<i>γ</i> is the mean infectious period for humans; 1/<i>δ</i> is the mean lifespan of mosquitoes; and <i>N</i> is the human population size.</p

Comparison of reported cases and fitted model trajectories.

<p>Black dots show weekly reported confirmed and suspected ZIKV cases from sentinel sites. Blue line shows median of 2,000 simulated trajectories from the fitted model, adjusted for variation in reporting over time; shaded region shows 95% credible interval.</p

Parameters used in the model.

<p>Prior distributions are given for all parameters, along with source if the prior incorporates a specific mean value. All rates are given in units of days⁻¹.</p

Geographical breakdown of the 2013–14 French Polynesia ZIKV outbreak.

<p>Geographical breakdown of the 2013–14 French Polynesia ZIKV outbreak.</p

Associations between positive MAT for <i>Leptospira</i> and animal exposure at home and in the community.

<p>Associations between positive MAT for <i>Leptospira</i> and animal exposure at home and in the community.</p

Community-level seroprevalence at the 81 communities included in the study; a) prevalence varied from 0% to 60%; b) enlargement of the Suva area in eastern Viti Levu; c) enlargement of Taveuni and eastern Vanua Levu; and d) enlargement of northwestern Viti Levu including Ba.

<p>Community-level seroprevalence at the 81 communities included in the study; a) prevalence varied from 0% to 60%; b) enlargement of the Suva area in eastern Viti Levu; c) enlargement of Taveuni and eastern Vanua Levu; and d) enlargement of northwestern Viti Levu including Ba.</p

Overview of sampling strategy used in 2015 field study.

<p>Overview of sampling strategy used in 2015 field study.</p

Percentage of positive MAT reactions associated with each of the 6 serovars included in the final panel by: a) age groups, and b) regions.

<p>Positive MAT reactions defined as titre of ≥ 1:50.</p