Econometrics of the Effects of Stock Market Development on Growth and Private Investment in Lower Income Countries

Recent literature suggests that stock market liberalisation has positive effects on macroeconomic growth and private investment. However, econometric relations are largely dependent on the inclusion of higher income countries in such samples, which quite conceivably limits the relevance for lower income nations. Indeed, some evidence in this study indicates that stock market development has a more positive impact on growth for greater levels of per capita GDP. Similarly, lagged equity price appreciation seems to boost private investment growth, but only in rich countries. Curiously, neither financial nor legal development variables, which are more serviceably relevant than initial income, seem to be mitigating factors, but these data imply subdued enthusiasm regarding emerging equity market development.

Time-Series Econometrics of the Real and Financial Effects of Capital Flows: Selected Cases in Africa and Southern Asia

Few studies address the real effects of international capital flows. Instead of a cross-sectional design, this study exclusively examines time-series data from nine countries. Four cases - Nigeria, Zimbabwe, India, and Pakistan - produce evidence that either FDI or FPI adversely affect growth or savings rates, while two cases produce some evidence of a benevolent effect - Uganda and Sri Lanka. The data for Kenya, Zambia, and Bangladesh largely produce ambiguous results, and in fact, the vast majority of models across all cases indicate no significant relation. The preponderance of negative effects is largely consistent with the notion that lower income countries lack sufficient 'absorptive capacity' to harness foreign investment.

Econometrics of the Real Effects of Cross-Border Capital Flows in Emerging Markets

This study examines the effects of cross-border flows - FDI, FPI, and FBL - on growth and savings rates using data on 56 countries from 1969 through 1998. Very generally, few flow measures are significant determinants of real variables. However, consideration of the initial level of financial depth - including measures of private credit, bank lending, and stock market development - seems to produce more significant results, as some data indicate that flows have a more deleterious (benevolent) effect in countries with lower (higher) levels of development. Moreover, extreme bound analysis (EBA) of significant results indicates that these findings are robust.

Convex cocompactness and stability in mapping class groups

We introduce a strong notion of quasiconvexity in finitely generated groups, which we call stability. Stability agrees with quasiconvexity in hyperbolic groups and is preserved under quasi-isometry for finitely generated groups. We show that the stable subgroups of mapping class groups are precisely the convex cocompact subgroups. This generalizes a well-known result of Behrstock and is related to questions asked by Farb-Mosher and Farb.Comment: 15 pages, 1 figur

Recent PHENIX Results on Open Heavy Flavor

Throughout the history of the RHIC physics program, questions concerning the dynamics of heavy quarks have generated much experimental and theoretical investigation. A major focus of the PHENIX experiment is the measurement of these quarks through their semi-leptonic decay channels at mid and forward rapidity. Heavy quark measurements in $p+p$ collisions give information on the production of heavy flavor, without complications from medium effects. New measurements in $d+$Au and Cu+Cu indicate surprising cold nuclear matter effects on these quarks at midrapidity, and provide a new baseline for interpretation of the observed suppression in Au+Au collisions. When considered all together, these measurements present a detailed study of nuclear matter across a wide range of system size and temperature. Here we present preliminary PHENIX measurements of non-photonic electron spectra and their centrality dependence in $d$+Au and Cu+Cu, and discuss their implications on the current understanding of parton energy loss in the nuclear medium.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, to appear in the proceedings of Quark Matter 201

Arbitrage-free models of stocks and bonds

A small but ambitious literature uses affine arbitrage-free models to estimate jointly U.S. Treasury term premiums and the term structure of equity risk premiums. Within this approach, this paper identifies the parameter restrictions that are consistent with a simple dividend discount model, extends the cross-section to Germany and France, averages across multiple observable-factor and market prices of risk specifications, and considers alternative samples for parameter estimation. The results produce intuitive trajectories for both sets of premiums given standard samples starting from July 1993. However, the decomposition of nominal U.S. Treasury yields, but not long-run equity risk premiums, is sensitive to data beyond 2008, which raises some questions about the net effects of unconventional monetary policy measures. Nonetheless, the rotation from sharp inversion during the financial crisis to an upward-sloping term structure of equity risk premiums more recently, with modest readings at the front end, is not inconsistent with some net moderation in required compensation for equity risk in the United States