Optimal HP filtering for South Africa

Among the various methods used to identify the business cycle from aggregate data, the Hodrick-Prescott filter has become an industry standard – it ‘identifies’ the business cycle by removing low-frequency information, thereby smoothing the data. Since the filter’s inception in 1980, the value of the smoothing constant for quarterly data has been set at a ‘default’ of 1600, following the suggestion of Hodrick and Prescott (1980). This paper argues that this ‘default value’ is inappropriate due to its ad hoc nature and problematic underlying assumptions. Instead this paper uses the method of optimal filtering, developed by Pedersen (1998, 2001, and 2002), to determine the optimal value of the smoothing constant for South Africa. The optimal smoothing constant is that value which least distorts the frequency information of the time series. The result depends on both the censoring rule for the duration of the business cycles and the structure of the economy. The paper raises a number of important issues concerning the practical use of the HP filter, and provides an easily replicable method in the form of MATLAB code.Hodrick-Prescott filter, Spectral analysis, Ideal filtering, Optimal filtering, Distortionary filtering, Business cycles, MATLAB

Economic Crises, Stabilisation Policy and Output in Emerging Market Economies

The recent macroeconomic history of emerging market economies is coloured with economic crises of all kinds, ranging from debt-crises, through hyperinflationary periods to currency crises to name but a few. Much of the empirical literature notes that alongside fast-paced structural change this has resulted in volatile business cycles and a difficult environment for stabilisation policy. Both short- and long-run output dynamics are shaped by the multidimensional exposure of EMEs to economic shocks. The paper uses an SVAR analysis and finds that in spite of high degrees of output volatility, the conduct of stabilisation policy has sometimes been successful in dampening short-run output fluctuations. However, even when stabilisation has been successful, the effect on overall output volatility has been negligible when compared to supply-side shocks. The results show that economic crises are associated with large negative supply shocks which are only counteracted by stabilisation policy to a very small extent. These crisis-related supply shocks, in turn, have large negative effects on potential GDP growth, which are only reversible when positive supply shocks regain lost ground. Given the institutional origin of the economic crises, the paper suggests that for stabilisation policy to become more effective in lowering output volatility and maintaining long-term growth potential, it must be supported by appropriate supply-side measures which insulate EMEs against large negative supply shocks and help them to recover in the wake of economic crises.Economic crises, Stabilisation policy, Emerging Market Economies, Business Cycles, Potential output

The National Committee for Liberation ("ARM"), 1960-1964 : sabotage and the question of the ideological subject

Subject Matter: The dissertation gives an account of the history of the National Committee for Liberation (NCL), an anti-apartheid sabotage organisation that existed between 1960 and 1964. The study is aimed both at narrating its growth and development in the context of South Africa in the 1950s and 1960s, and explaining its strategic and political choices. In particular, the reasons for its isolation from the broader muggle against Apartheid and its inability to transcend this isolation are investigated. Sources: Discussion of the context of the NCL's development depended on secondary historical works by scholars such as Tom Lodge, Paul Rich, C.J. Driver and Janet Robertson as well as archival sources. The analysis of liberal discourse in the 1950s and 1960s also drew heavily on primary sources such as the liberal journals Contact, Africa South and The New African. Secondary sources were also used for the discussion of the NCL's strategy in the context of the development of a theory of revolutionary guerrilla warfare after the Second World War: here the work of Robert Taber, John Bowyer Bell, Kenneth Grundy and Edward Feit was central. The history of the NCL itself was reconstructed from trial records, newspapers and personal interviews. Archival sources such as The Karis-Carter collection, the Hoover Institute microfilm collection of South African political documents, the Paton Papers, the Ernie Wentzel papers were also extensively used. Methodology: The discussion of the discourse of liberal NCL members depended on a post-structuralist theory of subjectivity. The conceptual underpinnings of the thesis were provided by on the work of Jacques Lacan, Louis Althusser, Michel Pecheux, Ernesto Laclau, Chantal Mouffe and Slavoj Zizek. Pechcux's elaboration of the Althusserian concept of interpellation formed the basis of a discourse analysis of NCL texts. In the interviews, some use was also made of techniques of ethnographic interviewing developed by qualitative sociologists such as James Spradley. Conclusions: The analysis focused on the way NCL discourse constructed NCL members as "ordinary persons", a subject-position which implied a radical opposition between political struggle and ideological commitment. The NCL's strategic difficulties were related to the contradictions this discourse, related to metropolitan political traditions that valorised civil society, manifested in the context of post-Sharpeville South Africa. These contradictions were explored in terms of the Lacanian notion of the "ideological fantasy". The dissertation thus closes with a consideration, both of the importance of the ideological traditions identified in the analysis of NCL discourse, and the methodological importance of non-reductive conceptualisations of political identity and ideology

Biogenic Amines in Wine: Understanding the Headache

The presence of biogenic amines in wine is becoming increasingly important to consumers and producers alike,due to the potential threats of toxicity to humans and consequent trade implications. In the scientific field, biogenicamines have the potential to be applied as indicators of food spoilage and/or authenticity. Biogenic amines can beformed from their respective amino acid precursors by various microorganisms present in the wine, at any stageof production, ageing or storage. To understand the large number of factors that could influence the formation ofbiogenic amines, the chemical, biochemical, enzymatic and genetic properties relating to these compounds have tobe considered. Analytical and molecular methods to detect biogenic amines in wine, as well as possibilities that couldenable better control over their production levels in wine will also be explored in this review

Impact of market deregulation on the competitiveness of commercial milk producers in East Griqualand: a unit cost ratio (UCR) analysis: 1983-2006

This study investigates the impact of dairy market deregulation on the competitiveness of milk producers who comprise the East Griqualand (EG) study group in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. The study uses a microeconomic approach, the unit cost ratio (UCR) method of competitiveness analysis, to assess changes in the relative competitiveness of EG milk producers from 1983 – 2006. Findings of previous research indicate that dairy market deregulation in the 1980s and 1990s caused lower real milk producer prices, increased uncertainty and higher exit rates in the South African dairy industry. Results of the UCR analysis suggest that EG milk producers were not competitive based on the net local price received for milk but were competitive when dairy cattle trading income was included. This suggests that dairy cattle trading income played an important role in enhancing the profitability of EG dairy enterprises in the study period. Further UCR analysis revealed that the top one-third of EG milk producers were relatively competitive from 1983 – 2006 due to higher real milk prices and lower unit costs. A panel data study of individual EG milk producers could be used to identify other important factors affecting milk producer competitiveness over time.dairy market deregulation, East Griqualand milk producers, competitiveness, unit cost ratio analysis, Livestock Production/Industries,

Extending the frontiers of employment regulation: the case of domestic employment in South Africa

Domestic workers form one of the most vulnerable and exploited sectors of the workforce in the world economy. In 2002 South Africa became one of relatively few countries to promulgate special legislation aimed at extending protection to domestic workers in the form of Sectoral Determination 7: Domestic Worker Sector, South Africa. In the context of current debate about setting international standards for the domestic employment sector by means of a Convention and/or Recommendation of the International Labour Organisation, the article examines what has been achieved in South Africa over the past decade in extending legal protection to domestic workers, problems that have been encountered and possible ways in which those problems may be addressed.Department of HE and Training approved lis

Constitutionalism, public policy and discriminatory testamentary bequests - a good fit between common law and civil law in South Africa's mixed jurisdiction

This article investigates South African courts' treatment of discriminatory testamentary bequests in the pre- and post-constitutional eras. It shows a change in judicial attitude towards such bequests from an accommodating, tolerant stance, purportedly founded on South Africa's Roman-Dutch common law, during the pre-constitutional era to a firm normative approach with a focus on equality and non-discrimination during the post-constitutional years. The Article assesses critically this post-constitutional approach against precedent and scholarship from Common Law and Civil Law jurisdictions and asks whether, given the mixed nature of its legal system, the current South African position in regard to such bequests achieves a good fit between the Common Law and Civil Law

Business restructuring and operational requirements dismissals: Algorax and beyond

Introduction:This article revisits a vexed and much-debated question: when is it 'fair' for an employer, in the course of restructuring its business, to dismiss an employee for declining to accept changes in her or his terms and conditions of employment? The background to this question is the fiercely competitive climate in which many businesses, exposed to the full force of global economic pressures, find themselves, giving rise to the need for constant adaptation and, conversely, the spectre of dismissal for many employees. The legal context is a lengthening series of Labour Court (LC) and Labour Appeal Court (LAC) decisions in which the meaning of substantive fairness under these circumstances has been considered in great detail, but in divergent ways.Department of HE and Training approved lis

Oil on troubled waters? The slippery interface between the contract of employment and statutory labour law

Introduction: Although in labour law the term ‘employment relationship’ means more than a contractual relationship, in the vast majority of cases the contract of employment serves as ‘port of entry’ to the employment relationship. In general, its terms (express or implied) will govern the employment relationship except to the extent that they are unlawful or have been superseded by statute or collective agreement. This is the essence of what used to be known as the law of master and servant.Department of HE and Training approved lis