The Effect of Biased Communications On Both Trusting and Suspicious Voters

In recent studies of political decision-making, apparently anomalous behavior has been observed on the part of voters, in which negative information about a candidate strengthens, rather than weakens, a prior positive opinion about the candidate. This behavior appears to run counter to rational models of decision making, and it is sometimes interpreted as evidence of non-rational "motivated reasoning". We consider scenarios in which this effect arises in a model of rational decision making which includes the possibility of deceptive information. In particular, we will consider a model in which there are two classes of voters, which we will call trusting voters and suspicious voters, and two types of information sources, which we will call unbiased sources and biased sources. In our model, new data about a candidate can be efficiently incorporated by a trusting voter, and anomalous updates are impossible; however, anomalous updates can be made by suspicious voters, if the information source mistakenly plans for an audience of trusting voters, and if the partisan goals of the information source are known by the suspicious voter to be "opposite" to his own. Our model is based on a formalism introduced by the artificial intelligence community called "multi-agent influence diagrams", which generalize Bayesian networks to settings involving multiple agents with distinct goals

The supreme values in human nature

A sermon preached to the fourteenth graduating class of the Rice Institute, by the Reverend William Douglas MacKenzie, D.D., LL.D., President of the Hartford Seminary Foundation, Hartford, Connecticut

Hydrogeologic significance of depositional systems and facies ...

UT Librarie

Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, Purse Seine Fishery, 1972-84, with a brief discussion of age and size composition of the Landings

This report summarizes (I) annual purse seine landings of Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, for 1972-84, (2) estimated numbers of fish caught by fishing area. (3) estimates of nominal fishing effort and catch-per-unit-effort, (4) mean fish length and weight, and (5) major changes in the fishery. During the 1970s stock size and recruitment increased and the age composition broadened. reversing trends witnessed during the fishery's decline in the 1960s. Landings steadily improved and by 1980 the total coast wide landings exceeded 400,000 metric tons. Nevertheless, the character of the fishery changed considerably. Eleven reduction plants processed fish at seven ports in 1972, but in 1984 only eight plants operated at live ports. Beginning in the mid-1960s the center of fishing aclivity shifted from the Middle Atlantic area to the Chesapeake Bay area, which has continued to dominate the fishery in landings and effort through the 1970s and 1980s. During this period the average size and age of fish in the catches declined. (PDF file contains 30 pages.

Patterns of pleasure--the design and development of customer satisfaction

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1994.Vita.Includes bibliographical references (leaves [130-133]).by Douglas W. Lamm.M.S

Humanism and the Artist Raphael: a View of Renaissance History Through his Humanist Accomplishments

The thesis advances the name of Raphael Santi, the High Renaissance artist, to be included among the famous and highly esteemed Humanists of the Renaissance period. While the artistic creativity of the Renaissance is widely recognized, the creators have traditionally been viewed as mere craftsmen. In the case of Raphael Santi, his skills as a painter have proven to be a timeless medium for the immortalizing of the elevated thinking and turbulent challenges of the time period. His interests outside of painting, including archaeology and architecture, also offer strong testimony of his Humanist background and pursuits

An integrated Rotorcraft Avionics/Controls Architecture to support advanced controls and low-altitude guidance flight research

Salient design features of a new NASA/Army research rotorcraft--the Rotorcraft-Aircrew Systems Concepts Airborne Laboratory (RASCAL) are described. Using a UH-60A Black Hawk helicopter as a baseline vehicle, the RASCAL will be a flying laboratory capable of supporting the research requirements of major NASA and Army guidance, control, and display research programs. The paper describes the research facility requirements of these programs together with other critical constraints on the design of the research system. Research program schedules demand a phased development approach, wherein specific research capability milestones are met and flight research projects are flown throughout the complete development cycle of the RASCAL. This development approach is summarized, and selected features of the research system are described. The research system includes a real-time obstacle detection and avoidance system which will generate low-altitude guidance commands to the pilot on a wide field-of-view, color helmet-mounted display and a full-authority, programmable, fault-tolerant/fail-safe, fly-by-wire flight control system

Risk Aversion and Clientele Effects

We use traded options on growth and value indices to test for clientele differences in risk preferences. Value investors appear to have exhibited a higher average level of risk aversion than growth investors for two different time periods in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. We construct a model of time-varying clientele preferences that allows investors with different levels of risk-aversion to switch between investment styles conditional upon the evolution of returns and risk. The model makes predictions about the autocorrelations structure of measured risk parameters and also about the autocorrelation and cross-autocorrelation of fund flows by style. Empirical tests of the model provide evidence consistent with the existence of style switchers—investors who move funds between growth and value securities. We construct trading strategies in the value and growth index options markets that effectively buy risk from one clientele and sell it to another. These strategies generated modest positive returns over the period of study