Exact Bayesian Analysis of Mixtures

In this paper, we show how a complete and exact Bayesian analysis of a parametric mixture model is possible in some cases when components of the mixture are taken from exponential families and when conjugate priors are used. This restricted set-up allows us to show the relevance of the Bayesian approach as well as to exhibit the limitations of a complete analysis, namely that it is impossible to conduct this analysis when the sample size is too large, when the data are not from an exponential family, or when priors that are more complex than conjugate priors are used.Comment: 2 figures, 3 tables, 2 R codes. Chapter to appear in Mixtures: Estimation and Application

Robert Fogel: spiritual son of Simon Kuznets and master in cliometrics

"This paper is devoted to Robert Fogel, the spiritual and/or intellectual son of Simon Kuznets. Master in cliometrics, he is the winner (with Douglass North) of the 1993 Nobel Memorial Prize in economics for having renewed research in economic history by applying economic theory and quantitative methods in order to explain economic and institutional change." (author's abstract

Where are we now in cliometrics?

"That cliometrics is an indispensable tool in the study of economic history is no longer a very controversial statement. It is now generally agreed that economic theory, combined with new data as well as historical, statistical and mathematical methods are necessary at the theoretical level, to formulate problems precisely, to draw conclusions from postulates and to gain insight into workings of complicated processes and, at the applied level, to measure variables, to estimates parameters and to organize the elaborate calculations involved in reaching empirical results. This article is an illustration of the author's belief in this principle." (author's abstract

Reassessment of German aggregate wage earnings in the long run

'This article produces a new estimate of aggregate wage earnings in Germany from 1810 to 1989. Wages play a fundamental role in the determination of economic equilibria. They form an essential component of household incomes and have a direct effect in the setting of final demand and savings. Determinants in company production costs, their movements affecting the behaviour of businesses in price setting, employment and investment. Their multiple effects on physical flows and on monetary magnitudes mean that wages and the way in which they are set are central to the short-term regulation and long-term evolution of developed capitalist economies. However, in Germany for example, although the statistics on wages and the occupations of workers are plentiful and varied, their heterogeneity and the gaps in them mean that it is not possible to obtain a rapid and accurate appraisal of the mass of wages distributed over a long period. The difficulties increase further when breakdowns that display a degree of aggregation are required for specific subgroups: occupational sectors, professional categories, regions, etc. Taking up this point, this article has one main purpose. It aims at developing a reassessment of the long-term movements of wages and wage-earners and thus to obtain an original estimate of aggregate wage earnings in Germany from 1810 to 1989. The points are addressed in three parts. The first defines the concept of wages. The second presents the spatial field covered. The third describes the methodological constraints and shows our cliometric results.' (text extract)

The stakes of cliometrics in ancient history

"According to Finley, markets and economic motivations played little, if any, role in ancient economies. Status and civic ideology governed the allocation of scarce resources. Hence, the application of economic theory to the ancient economy was at best a futile exercise and at worst a source of grave misunderstandings. Temin's contributions lead to other conclusions and, as in the myth of Sisyphus, the boulder seems again to be at the bottom of the hill! The author's feeling is that the Gordian knot remains the same now as over the past decades: should cliometrics be used in the social sciences/humanities in general, and ancient history especially?" (author's abstract

Towards a new social structure of accumulation?

Der Ansatz 'Social Structure of Accumulation' (SSA) entwickelte sich seit Ende der 70er Jahre als Schule in Anlehnung an eine Revision des Marxismus. Die Theorie versteht sich als ein neuer Ansatz zur Analyse der langfristigen Entwicklungsstrukturen der kapitalistischen Ökonomien und Gesellschaften. Der Ausdruck SSA bezieht sich auf den komplexen Satz von Institutionen, die den Prozess der kapitalistischen Akkumulation ermöglichen und begleiten. Grundgedanke des Ansatzes ist es, dass langfristige Expansionen der kapitalistischen Gesellschaftsformation eine effektive SSA erfordern. Die SSA schließt dabei sowohl politische, wie kulturelle als auch ökonomische Institutionen ein. Dieses Institutionenarrangement stabilisiert sich sowohl in nationalen wie globalen Zusammenhängen. Der vorliegende Beitrag diskutiert die These des Ansatzes, dass die nationalen Ökonomien - sie sind zugleich Teile eines globalen Akkumulationsregimes - bestimmten zyklischen Schwankungen zwischen Boom und Krise unterworfen sind. Diese 'langen Wellen' werden jedoch durch die jeweils nationenspezifischen Institutionenarrangements modifiziert. In diesen Kontexten entstehen neue Formen des Akkumulationsregimes. (ICA)'The Social Structure of Accumulation (SSA) approach provides a new way of analysing the structure and development of capitalist economies and societies. The term SSA refers to the complex of institutions which support the process of capital accumulation. The central idea of the SSA approach is that a long period of relatively rapid and stable economic expansion requires an effective SSA. The SSA includes political and cultural institutions as well as economic ones. The institutions comprising an SSA include both domestic and international arrangements. Domestic institutions may include the state of labour-management relations, the organisation of the work process, the character of industrial organisation, the role of money and banking and their relation to industry, the role of the state in the economy, the line-up of political parties, the state of race and gender relations and the state of the educational system. International institutions may concern the trade, investment, monetary-financial and political environments. The development of the SSA approach was motivated by at least three analytical concerns: historical, comparative, and programmatic. An historical concern suggests that individual economic systems, and the world system of which each is a part, go through periodic booms and periodic times of trouble. These alternating periods have been called long waves'. These long waves appear to be associated with the bunching of institutional changes, which take place in a discontinuous manner. Such patterns require an explanation. The SSA approach is not directed only at the problem of uneven economic expansion and discontinuous institutional change over time. It is also concerned with differences between the economic systems of various nations. The comparative concern suggests that, contrary to the view of traditional neoclassical economics, institutions and social structure make a difference to the functioning of economic systems. While Japan, Germany, the United States, Sweden and South Africa are all market-oriented economies, their structures and performances also differ considerably from one another. To explain these different outcomes, we need a theory that incorporates the institutional differences between countries. A programmatic policy concern asks how new institutions develop and are consolidated. Why do some attempts to reform and transform the economy and social structure meet considerable success, while others have only a limited impact, and yet others fail completely? We need a theory that can help answer these questions.' (author's abstract

Advances in historical time series analysis

'Dieser Artikel fasst ein neues ökonometrisches Verfahren für wirtschaftshistorische (kliometrische) Shockanalyse zusammen: die outliers Methodologie.' (Autorenreferat)'This article summarises a new econometric technique for shock analysis in historical economics (cliometrics): the outlier methodology.' (author's abstract

Government expenditure on education and economic cycles in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries: the case of Spain and special reference to France and Germany

Der Zusammenhang von Staatsausgaben für Bildung und Wirtschaftswachstum in Spanien zwischen 1850 und 1965 wird untersucht. Im theoretischen Teil werden Konzepte ökonomischer Zyklen und Staatstheorien vorgestellt. Das Konzept begleitender Investitionen wird durch ein Modell keynesianischen Zuschnitts formalisiert und empirisch untersucht. Bis zum zweiten Weltkrieg waren Investitionen im Bildungsbereich motiviert durch eine Erhöhung der Arbeitsqualität. Nach dem zweiten Weltkrieg ist der Bildungsbereich ein integraler Bestandteil des ökonomischen Systems und ein bedeutender Wachstumsfaktor geworden: Bildung erhöht nicht nur die Produktionskapazität des ökonomischen Systems, sondern auch die Nachfrage nach Konsumgütern. (prg)'This paper is intended to provide a new reading of the way in which aggregate series of government expenditure on education and economic growth in Spain were related from 1850 to 1965. The research is in two parts. The first concerns the theoretical framework with two Major conceptualisation aspects: economic cycles and theories of the state. In the second, the concept of accompanying investment, formalised by a model of Keynesian inspiration, is developed through the presentation of empirical results.' (author's abstract