Inflation persistence and price-setting in the euro area : results of the Eurosystem Inflation Persistence Network

This article presents a summary of the main results produced by the Inflation Persistence Network (IPN), a network of researchers from the twelve national central banks of the euro area, the ECB and the universities, which aimed to conduct a joint analysis of Inflation persistence and pricing mechanisms. This network carried out both macroeconomic and microeconomic surveys. As regards Inflation persistence, one of the research findings indicated that the degree of Inflation persistence in the euro area was relatively moderate under the current monetary policy regime, but that these estimates were not very accurate. As regards the pricing strategies of firms, the IPN demonstrated among other things that firms in the euro area changed their prices less often than American firms, but that this greater rigidity was not due to any excess nominal downward price rigidity. The findings should permit the development of theoretical models based on microeconomic foundations compatible with the observed behaviour, and provide a better understanding of Inflation and the impact of monetary policy.Inflation persistence, price rigidity, monetary policy

A global assessment of the degree of price stickiness – results from the NBB business survey

In this paper, we estimate the degree of price stickiness in Belgium using the NBB business survey. Compared to similar empirical exercises based on consumer or producer price data, the micro data set used allows us to cover most of the Belgian economy in one exercise and therefore provides a better estimate of the overall degree of price stickiness. Based on our estimates, 19.2% of prices are changed each month. In the manufacturing sector and the trade sectors, the frequency of price changes is close to 24.5%. In the construction sector the frequency of price changes is close to 20.5% and in the B2B service sectors it is almost 9%. Econometric analyses of the determinants of the sectoral frequency of price changes indicate, on the one hand, that the cost structure is the main explanatory variable of the sectoral discrepancies. On the other hand, we find that domestic competition does not seem to explain an excess or shortage of price changes at the sectoral levelprice rigidity, frequency of price changes, competition

Wages, labor or prices: How do firms react to shocks? National Bank of Belgium Working Paper, No. 193, July 2010

Survey results in 15 European countries for almost 15,000 firms reveal that Belgian firms react more than the average European firm to adverse shocks by reducing permanent and temporary employment. On the basis of a firm-level analysis, this paper confirms that the different reaction to shocks is significant and investigates what factors explain this difference. Although the explanatory value of the variables is limited, most of the explanatory power of the model being associated with the dummy variables coding for firm size, sector and country, the variables investigated provide valuable information. The importance of wage bargaining above the firm level, the automatic system of index-linking wages to past inflation, the limited use of flexible pay, the high share of low-skilled blue-collar workers, the labor intensive production process as well as the less stringent legislation with respect to the protection against dismissal are at the basis of the stronger employment reaction of Belgian firms. On the contrary, employment is safeguarded by the presence of many small firms and a wage cushion

Temporal Distribution of Price Changes : Staggering in the Large and Synchronization in the Small

Temporal distribution of individual price changes is of crucial importance for business cycle theory and for the micro-foundations of price adjustment. While it is routinely assumed that price changes are staggered over time, both theory and evidence are ambiguous. We use a large Belgian data set to analyze whether price changes are staggered or synchronized. We find that the more aggregate the data, the closer the distribution to perfect staggering. This result holds for both aggregation across goods and across locations. Our results provide support for Bhaskar’s (2002) model of synchronized adjustment within, and staggered adjustment across, industries.staggering, synchronization, aggregation, price setting

Wages, labor or prices: how do firms react to shocks?

Survey results in 15 European countries for almost 15,000 firms reveal that Belgian firms react more than the average European firm to adverse shocks by reducing permanent and temporary employment. On the basis of a firm-level analysis, this paper confirms that the different reaction to shocks is significant and investigates what factors explain this difference. Although the explanatory value of the variables is limited, most of the explanatory power of the model being associated with the dummy variables coding for firm size, sector and country, the variables investigated provide valuable information. The importance of wage bargaining above the firm level, the automatic system of index-linking wages to past inflation, the limited use of flexible pay, the high share of low-skilled blue-collar workers, the labor intensive production process as well as the less stringent legislation with respect to the protection against dismissal are at the basis of the stronger employment reaction of Belgian firms. On the contrary, employment is safeguarded by the presence of many small firms and a wage cushion. JEL Classification: D21, E30, J31Cost-push shocks, demand shock, indexation, survey, wage bargaining institutions, wage rigidity

How frequently do prices change? Evidence based on the micro data underlying the Belgian CPI

This paper examines the degree of price rigidity in Belgian consumer prices, using a large database. As to the observed degree of rigidity, the results reveal a substantial amount of heterogeneity, not only across but also within product categories. While prices turn out to be perfectly flexible for some product categories, they tend to be very sticky for others. Each month, nearly 17 p.c. of the consumer prices change on average and the median duration of a price spell is close to 13 months. A substantial subset of our results is compatible with state-dependent pricing, while other results suggest that some timedependency exists as well. The majority of price changes are price increases, but price decreases are not uncommon, except for services. The size of price changes is important. Price changes do not seem to be highly synchronised across price-setters within relatively homogenous product categories. JEL Classification: D21, D40, E31consumer prices, price rigidity, staggered pricing, state-dependent pricing, time-dependent pricing

Wages, labor or prices : How do firms react to shocks ?

Survey results in 15 European countries for almost 15,000 firms reveal that Belgian firms react more than the average European firm to adverse shocks by reducing permanent and temporary employment. On the basis of a firm-level analysis, this paper confirms that the different reaction to shocks is significant and investigates what factors explain this difference. Although the explanatory value of the variables is limited, most of the explanatory power of the model being associated with the dummy variables coding for firm size, sector and country, the variables investigated provide valuable information. The importance of wage bargaining above the firm level, the automatic system of index-linking wages to past inflation, the limited use of flexible pay, the high share of low-skilled blue-collar workers, the labor intensive production process as well as the less stringent legislation with respect to the protection against dismissal are at the basis of the stronger employment reaction of Belgian firms. On the contrary, employment is safeguarded by the presence of many small firms and a wage cushionsurvey, wage rigidity, cost-push shocks, demand shock, wage bargaining institutions, indexation

How frequently do prices change? Evidence based on the micro data underlying the Belgian CPI.

This paper examines the degree of price rigidity in Belgian consumer prices, using a large database. As to the observed degree of rigidity, the results reveal a substantial amount of heterogeneity, not only across but also within product categories. While prices turn out to be perfectly flexible for some product categories, they tend to be very sticky for others. Each month, nearly 17 p.c. of the consumer prices change on average and the median duration of a price spell is close to 13 months. A substantial subset of our results is compatible with state-dependent pricing, while other results suggest that some timedependency exists as well. The majority of price changes are price increases, but price decreases are not uncommon, except for services. The size of price changes is important. Price changes do not seem to be highly synchronised across price-setters within relatively homogenous product categories.consumer prices, price rigidity, state-dependent pricing, time-dependent pricing, staggered pricing

Temporal Distribution of Price Changes: Staggering in the Large and Synchronization in the Small

Temporal distribution of individual price changes is of crucial importance for business cycle theory and for the microfoundations of price adjustment. While it is routinely assumed that price changes are staggered over time, both theory and evidence are ambiguous. We use a large Belgian data set to analyze whether price changes are staggered or synchronized. We find that the more aggregated are the data, the closer is the distribution to perfect staggering. This result holds both for aggregation across goods, and across locations. Our results provide support for BhaskarÕs (2002) model of synchronized adjustment within, and staggered adjustment across, industries.

Learning about demand abroad from wholesalers: a B2B analysis. NBB Working Paper No 377, November 2019

This paper uses Business to Business (B2B) transaction level data. It shows that manufacturing firms that initially export via a wholesaler are much more likely to become direct exporters to the same destination in subsequent periods. Theoretically, we rationalise this finding by demonstrating how a connection to a wholesaler reduces uncertainty about the foreign demand. In the data we isolate the channel for demand learning from productivity spillovers. Non-exporting manufacturing firms, previously serving a foreign destination through an exporting wholesaler, have a much higher probability of becoming direct exporters to the same export market in subsequent periods. A connection to an exporting wholesaler results in a probability of exporting to the same destination that is six times higher than a comparable firm without any exposure to the foreign destination