System analysis and short-term forecasting of the impact of economic factors on the COVID-19 epidemic process to optimization of international transport communications in the pandemic conditions

Представлены результаты системного анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования влияния экономических факторов на развитие эпидемического процесса COVID-19 и оценки возможностей оптимизации транспортных коммуникаций и логистического взаимодействия между странами, характеризующимися различным социально-экономическим и демографическим развитием, а также географическим положением в условиях глобальной пандемии COVID-19. Разработана кинетическая модель развития эпидемического процесса, обусловленного вирусом SARS-CoV-2, представленная системой линейных дифференциальных уравнений. В результате исследования данной математической модели получены условия стабилизации и ограничения эпидемического процесса. Предложен комплекс множественных линейных регрессионных моделей, описывающих динамику заболеваемости и выживаемости заболевших в условиях эпидемического процесса, с учетом важных экономических показателей, включая цены на баррель нефти Brent, одной тройской унции золота и серебра, биткоина, а также курс китайского юаня к российскому рублю, курс доллара к российскому рублю, курс китайского юаня к доллару для таких стран, как Австралия, Австрия, Беларусь, Германия, Индия, Испания, Италия, Китай, Латвия, Литва, Польша, Россия, США, Украина, Франция, Эстония. Сформулирована гипотеза о двух градиентах ежедневного прироста – заболеваемости и выживаемости, которые могут иметь динамически нестабильную точку равновесия в условиях развития эпидемии COVID-19 в международном кластере стран (регионов). Данные положения могут быть использованы для предотвращения неоправданных человеческих потерь и дестабилизации социальных систем в условиях повторных эпидемий, обусловленных COVID-19 и подобных вызовов в обозримом будущем. Has been presented the results of system analysis and short-term forecasting of the impact of economic factors on the development of the epidemic process COVID-19 and to assess opportunities to optimize the transport communications and the logistic interactions between the countries with different socio-economic and demographic development, as well as geographical position in the global pandemic COVID-19. Has been developed a kinetic model of the development of the epidemic process caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, represented by a system of linear differential equations. As a result of the study of this mathematical model, the conditions for stabilization and limitation of the epidemic process are obtained. The complex multiple linear regression models describing the dynamics of the incidence and survival in diseased conditions of the epidemic process, given the important economic indicators, including the price of a barrel of Brent crude, one Troy ounce of gold and silver, bitcoin, and the Chinese yuan to Russian ruble, us dollar rate to the Russian ruble, the Chinese yuan to the dollar for countries such as Australia, Austria, Belarus, Germany, India, Spain, Italy, China, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, USA, Ukraine, France, Estonia. Has been formulated a hypothesis about two gradients of daily growth-morbidity and survival, which may have a dynamically unstable equilibrium point in the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in an international cluster of countries (regions). These provisions can be used to prevent unnecessary human losses and destabilization of social systems in the context of repeated epidemics caused by the COVID-19 and similar challenges in the foreseeable future

Processing images of technological objects

The paper considers the problem of creating a smoke detection and fire detection system for technological objects. Fire detection is carried out using a vision system. Monitoring of technological objects is carried out using an unmanned aerial vehicle. For further actions, processing and classification of images is necessary

Analysis of the Sleep Disorders in Students Under the Effect of Computer Games and Video Films

Introduction and wide use of information technologies in all spheres of human life including for the purpose of entertainment has led to the emergence and spread of various types of Internet addiction. Numerous studies have established the effect of the nature of activity in the virtual world on the state of the human mental condition. In our research was conducted analysis of the sleep disorders in technical university students, who use computer games and video films for recreation and entertainment. We have researched in the sleep disorder mechanisms in technical university students, who use computer games and video films for recreation and entertainment. The authors of the article K. N. Meziyanaya, K. D. Yashin, K. M. Karaneuski developed the questionnaire "Method of Screening Diagnostics of Computer Addiction and its Influence on Physical and Mental Health" to study of formation of sleep disorders [1]. Interviews with 142 2nd to 5th year students studying in one of the technical universities of Minsk city were conducted in order to study the formation of sleep disorders under the influence of the computer media environment: males – 119 (84.4%), females – 23 (16.2%). The average age of respondents was 19.7 (±1.5) years. The average duration of the virtual world use was 9 (±2) years. It is established that 101 students (71.1% of the number of respondents) are forced to wake up from fear and anxiety. The statistical relationship is shown between the symptom of sleep disturbance: they say in a dream "I just dream it" and the symptom: duration of stay in the virtual world 40 or more hours per week. χ2 criterion = 5.63; p = 0.05. The relationship between combining computer games with watching movies and waking up from fear and anxiety is found, χ2 criterion = 4.38, p = 0.05. The findings suggest that the continued use of computer games in combination with viewing video films contributes to the development of malfunction of the organization and maintenance of sleep. The results testify to the correlation between a sleep disorder and a prolonged stay in the virtual world, which can contribute to predicting the formation of anxiety disorders.

System analysis of the «driver-car-roadenvironment» reliability based on a sociotechnical approach as a Big Data problem

Статья посвящена системному анализу обеспечения надежности системы «водитель-автомобиль-дорога-среда» на основе социотехнического подхода с использованием технологий Big Data. Разработаны восемь базовых социотехнических схем для системного анализа и моделирования структурнофункциональной организации системы «водитель–автомобиль–дорога–среда». С помощью предложенных социотехнических схем разработаны формальные стохастические модели надежности системы «водитель– автомобиль–дорога–среда». Подобные стохастические модели и сценарии функционирования системы «водитель–автомобиль–дорога–среда» могут составить основу для обучения нейросетевых информационноаналитических интеллектуальных технологий в управлении транспортными потоками и интермодальными терминалами и интегрированными транспортными системами. Обоснована целесообразность разработки электронного «индивидуального риск-паспорта водителя» на основе нейросетевых информационно-аналитических интеллектуальных технологий, технологий Big Data и облачных сервисов. The article is devoted to the system analysis of ensuring the reliability of the «driver–car-road–environment» system based on the sociotechnical approach based using Big Data technologies. Based on the sociotechnical approach, eight basic sociotechnical schemes have been developed for system analysis and modeling of the structural and functional organization of the driver-car–road–environment system. Have been developed the formal stochastic models of reliability of the «driver–car–road–environment» system for proposed sociotechnical schemes. Similar stochastic models and scenarios for the operation of the driver-car-road-environment system. they can form the basis for training neural network information and analytical intelligent technologies in the management of transport flows and intermodal terminals and integrated transport systems. The expediency of developing an electronic «individual driver's risk passport» based on neural network information and analytical intelligent technologies, Big Data technologies and cloud services is proved

Simulation of the operator working capacity of unmanned aircraft complexes based on cardiac rhythm

Представлены параметры сердечного ритма для анализа работоспособности операторов беспилотных авиационных комплексов. Предложены три математические модели динамики работоспособности и функциональной активности операторов на основе параметров сердечного ритма. The number of parameters of the cardiac rhythm to analyze the health of operators of unmanned aircraft systems has been presented. Three mathematical models of the dynamics of health and functional operators activity made on the basis of parameters of cardiac rhythm were proposed

The modeling of information system for reliability assessment of motor vehicles drivers under stress

Предложена концептуальная модель информационной системы оценки надежности водителей автотранспортных средств в условиях психологического стресса. Модель информационной системы включает 10 структурно-функциональных модулей и может рассматриваться как основа для разработки информационной технологии мониторинга, комплексной диагностики и прогнозирования функциональной надежности операторов автотранспортных и других человеко-машинных систем в различных сферах профессиональной деятельности. А conceptual model of the information system reliability assessment of motor vehicle drivers under conditions of psychological stress is proposed. The model of the information system includes 10 structural-functional modules and can be considered as the basis for the development of information technology monitoring, comprehensive diagnostics and prediction of functional reliability of operators, vehicles and other man-machine systems in various fields of professional activity

The modeling of information system for reliability assessment of motor vehicles drivers under stress

Предложена концептуальная модель информационной системы оценки надежности водителей автотранспортных средств в условиях психологического стресса. Модель информационной системы включает 10 структурно-функциональных модулей и может рассматриваться как основа для разработки информационной технологии мониторинга, комплексной диагностики и прогнозирования функциональной надежности операторов автотранспортных и других человеко-машинных систем в различных сферах профессиональной деятельности. А conceptual model of the information system reliability assessment of motor vehicle drivers under conditions of psychological stress is proposed. The model of the information system includes 10 structural-functional modules and can be considered as the basis for the development of information technology monitoring, comprehensive diagnostics and prediction of functional reliability of operators, vehicles and other man-machine systems in various fields of professional activity

Influence of computer games on the sleep quality and the nature of dreams in students

This study explored the use of different forms of the virtual world among students and the study of its influence on unconscious processes in students. The test group was comprised of 141 participants who were second to fifth year students at a technical university of Minsk city. We found that 38.3% of the participants spent more than 40 hours per work in the virtual world and 26.2% spent 25–39 hours per week. Moreover, 90.8% of the students engaged in computer games and game plots were present in the dreams of 16.3% of students. Nightmares and incubi were the cause of being awoken in 71.6% of students. Moreover, 14.9% of respondents expressed changes in depth psychology. Computer games are especially popular in the students’ environment, and their substantial impact on the gamers’ sleep quality and the nature of dreams was observed

Anxiety Disorders in Students Under the Influence of Computer Media

The influence of the virtual world forms on sleep and emotions of users has been studied. The test group was comprised of 142 students studying information technology in one of the technical universities in Minsk. The structure of the virtual world forms used by the students and their combined effect on the sleep disturbances and formation of anxiety disorders has been analyses. It was established that 36,2% of respondents used to spend 40 or more hours a week in the virtual world. The majority of the respondents, 90,8%, is fond of computer games and devote to it about 55% of the time on average (100% is the total time spent at the computer). 78 students (54,9%) wake up due to fear and anxiety. The analysis showed that the number of people to wake up due to fear and anxiety among the users who combine computer games with watching movies is credibly higher: the criterion χ2 = 5,83

The criteria of entropy-information analysis of the educational process in master degree of technical university

Entropy-information criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of the educational process are proposed. The expediency of improvement and optimization of educational process in magistracy in the conditions of magistracy of modern technical University is shown. Предложены критерии энтропийно-информационного анализа для мониторинга и оценки эффективности образовательного процесса. Показана целесообразность совершенствования и оптимизации образовательного процесса в магистратуре в условиях магистратуры современного технического университета