Interpretation of active-control randomised trials: the case for a new analytical perspective involving averted events

Active-control trials, where an experimental treatment is compared with an established treatment, are performed when the inclusion of a placebo control group is deemed to be unethical. For time-to-event outcomes, the primary estimand is usually the rate ratio, or the closely-related hazard ratio, comparing the experimental group with the control group. In this article we describe major problems in the interpretation of this estimand, using examples from COVID-19 vaccine and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis trials. In particular, when the control treatment is highly effective, the rate ratio may indicate that the experimental treatment is clearly statistically inferior even when it is worthwhile from a public health perspective. We argue that it is crucially important to consider averted events as well as observed events in the interpretation of active-control trials. An alternative metric that incorporates this information, the averted events ratio, is proposed and exemplified. Its interpretation is simple and conceptually appealing, namely the proportion of events that would be averted by using the experimental treatment rather than the control treatment. The averted events ratio cannot be directly estimated from the active-control trial, and requires an additional assumption about either: (a) the incidence that would have been observed in a hypothetical placebo arm (the counterfactual incidence) or (b) the efficacy of the control treatment (relative to no treatment) that pertained in the active-control trial. Although estimation of these parameters is not straightforward, this must be attempted in order to draw rational inferences. To date, this method has been applied only within HIV prevention research, but has wider applicability to treatment trials and other disease areas

The value of kinetic glomerular filtration rate estimation on medication dosing in acute kidney injury.

BackgroundIn acute kidney injury (AKI), medication dosing based on Cockcroft-Gault creatinine clearance (CrCl) or Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) are not valid when serum creatinine (SCr) is not in steady state. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of a kinetic estimating equation that incorporates fluctuations in SCrs on drug dosing in critically ill patients.MethodsWe used data from participants enrolled in the NIH Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network Fluid and Catheters Treatment Trial to simulate drug dosing category changes with the application of the kinetic estimating equation developed by Chen. We evaluated whether kinetic estimation of renal function would change medication dosing categories (≥60, 30-59, 15-29, and <15mL/min) compared with the use of CrCl or CKD-EPI eGFR.ResultsThe use of kinetic CrCl and CKD-EPI eGFR resulted in a large enough change in estimated renal function to require medication dosing recategorization in 19.3% [95 CI 16.8%-21.9%] and 23.4% [95% CI 20.7%-26.1%] of participants, respectively. As expected, recategorization occurred more frequently in those with AKI. When we examined individual days for those with AKI, dosing discordance was observed in 8.5% of total days using the CG CrCl and 10.2% of total days using the CKD-EPI equation compared with the kinetic counterparts.ConclusionIn a critically ill population, use of kinetic estimates of renal function impacted medication dosing in a substantial proportion of AKI participants. Use of kinetic estimates in clinical practice should lower the incidence of medication toxicity as well as avoid subtherapeutic dosing during renal recovery

Evaluating the impact of policies recommending PrEP to subpopulations of men and transgender women who have sex with men based on demographic and behavioral risk factors.

IntroductionDeveloping guidelines to inform the use of antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention in resource-limited settings must necessarily be informed by considering the resources and infrastructure needed for PrEP delivery. We describe an approach that identifies subpopulations of cisgender men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) to prioritize for the rollout of PrEP in resource-limited settings.MethodsWe use data from the iPrEx study, a multi-national phase III study of PrEP for HIV prevention in MSM/TGW, to build statistical models that identify subpopulations at high risk of HIV acquisition without PrEP, and with high expected PrEP benefit. We then evaluate empirically the population impact of policies recommending PrEP to these subpopulations, and contrast these with existing policies.ResultsA policy recommending PrEP to a high risk subpopulation of MSM/TGW reporting condomless receptive anal intercourse over the last 3 months (estimated 3.3% 1-year HIV incidence) yields an estimated 1.95% absolute reduction in 1-year HIV incidence at the population level, and 3.83% reduction over 2 years. Importantly, such a policy requires rolling PrEP out to just 59.7% of MSM/TGW in the iPrEx population. We find that this policy is identical to that which prioritizes MSM/TGW with high expected PrEP benefit. It is estimated to achieve nearly the same reduction in HIV incidence as the PrEP guideline put forth by the US Centers for Disease Control, which relies on the measurement of more behavioral risk factors and which would recommend PrEP to a larger subset of the MSM/TGW population (86% vs. 60%).ConclusionsThese findings may be used to focus future mathematical modelling studies of PrEP in resource-limited settings on prioritizing PrEP for high-risk subpopulations of MSM/TGW. The statistical approach we took could be employed to develop PrEP policies for other at-risk populations and resource-limited settings

Skating on thin ice: stimulant use and sub‐optimal adherence to HIV pre‐exposure prophylaxis

IntroductionStimulant and heavy alcohol use are prevalent and associated with elevated risk for HIV seroconversion among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women. In addition, each can pose difficulties for antiretroviral adherence among people living with HIV. Scant research has examined the associations of stimulant and heavy alcohol use with adherence to daily oral pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM and transgender women. To address this gap in the literature, we evaluated the hypothesis that stimulant use and binge drinking are prospectively associated with sub‐optimal PrEP adherence.MethodsWe analysed data from participants in a nested case‐cohort in the iPrEx open label extension. Stimulant use (i.e. powder cocaine, crack‐cocaine, cocaine paste, methamphetamine, cathinone) and binge drinking (i.e. ≥5 drinks in a single day) in the last 30 days were assessed. Baseline urine was tested for stimulants using immunoassays to reduce misclassification. Sub‐optimal adherence was defined as tenofovir drug concentrations in dried blood spots less than 700 fmol per punch, indicative of less than four doses per week. We tested the prospective association of stimulant use and binge drinking with sub‐optimal adherence at the 4‐week follow‐up visit.Results and DiscussionData from 330 participants were analysed. The majority of the participants were MSM (89%) with a median age at baseline of 29 years (interquartile range 24 to 39). Approximately 16% (52/330) used stimulants and 22% (72/330) reported binge drinking in the last 30 days. Stimulant users had fivefold greater odds of sub‐optimal PrEP adherence compared to non‐users in adjusted analysis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.04; [95% CI 1.35 to 18.78]). Self‐reported binge drinking was not significantly associated with sub‐optimal adherence after adjusting for stimulant use and baseline confounders (aOR 1.16 [0.49 to 2.73]). Depressive symptoms, being transgender, and number of sex partners were also not significantly associated with sub‐optimal PrEP adherence (p > 0.05).ConclusionsStimulant use is a risk factor for sub‐optimal PrEP adherence in the month following PrEP initiation. Comprehensive prevention approaches that reduce stimulant use may optimize PrEP adherence. Creating adherence plans that specifically address PrEP dosing in the context of ongoing stimulant use should also be considered.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142946/1/jia225103.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142946/2/jia225103_am.pd

Depression and Oral FTC/TDF Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Among Men and Transgender Women Who Have Sex With Men (MSM/TGW).

We conducted a longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis of depressive symptomology in iPrEx, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of daily, oral FTC/TDF HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in men and transgender women who have sex with men. Depression-related adverse events (AEs) were the most frequently reported severe or life-threatening AEs and were not associated with being randomized to the FTC/TDF arm (152 vs. 144 respectively OR 0.66 95 % CI 0.35-1.25). Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale (CES-D) and a four questions suicidal ideation scale scores did not differ by arm. Participants reporting forced sex at anal sexual debut had higher CES-D scores (coeff: 3.23; 95 % CI 1.24-5.23) and were more likely to have suicidal ideation (OR 2.2; 95 % CI 1.09-4.26). CES-D scores were higher among people reporting non-condom receptive anal intercourse (ncRAI) (OR 1.46; 95 % CI 1.09-1.94). We recommend continuing PrEP during periods of depression in conjunction with provision of mental health services

Public preferences for social distancing policy measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in Missouri

Importance: Policies to promote social distancing can minimize COVID-19 transmission but come with substantial social and economic costs. Quantifying relative preferences among the public for such practices can inform locally relevant policy prioritization and optimize uptake. Objective: To evaluate relative utilities (ie, preferences) for COVID-19 pandemic social distancing strategies against the hypothetical risk of acquiring COVID-19 and anticipated income loss. Design, Setting, and Participants: This survey study recruited individuals living in the Missouri area from May to June 2020 via randomly distributed unincentivized social media advertisements and local recruitment platforms for members of minority racial and ethnic groups. Participants answered 6 questions that asked them to choose between 2 hypothetical counties where business closures, social distancing policy duration, COVID-19 infection risk, and income loss varied. Main Outcomes and Measures: Reweighted population-level relative preferences (utilities) for social distancing policies, subgroups, and latent classes. Results: The survey had a 3% response rate (3045 of 90 320). Of the 2428 respondents who completed the survey, 1669 (75%) were 35 years and older, 1536 (69%) were women, and 1973 (89%) were White. After reweighting to match Missouri population demographic characteristics, the strongest preference was for the prohibition of large gatherings (mean preference, -1.43; 95% CI, -1.67 to -1.18), with relative indifference to the closure of social and lifestyle venues (mean preference, 0.05; 95% CI, -0.08 to 0.17). There were weak preferences to keep outdoor venues (mean preference, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.61) and schools (mean preference, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.30) open. Latent class analysis revealed 4 distinct preference phenotypes in the population: risk averse (48.9%), conflicted (22.5%), prosocial (14.9%), and back to normal (13.7%), with men twice as likely as women to belong to the back to normal group than the risk averse group (relative risk ratio, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.54 to 3.12). Conclusions And relevance: In this survey study using a discrete choice experiment, public health policies that prohibited large gatherings, as well as those that closed social and lifestyle venues, appeared to be acceptable to the public. During policy implementation, these activities should be prioritized for first-phase closures. These findings suggest that policy messages that address preference heterogeneity (eg, focusing on specific preference subgroups or targeting men) could improve adherence to social distancing measures for COVID-19 and future pandemics

Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks.

BackgroundIn many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome.MethodsWe develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard.ResultsThe proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care.ConclusionsA valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived

Longitudinal care cascade outcomes among people eligible for antiretroviral therapy who are newly linking to care in Zambia: A multistate analysis

BACKGROUND: Retention in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care is dynamic, with patients frequently transitioning in and out of care. Analytical approaches (eg, survival analyses) commonly used to assess HIV care cascade outcomes fail to capture such transitions and therefore incompletely represent care outcomes over time. METHODS: We analyzed antiretroviral therapy (ART)-eligible adults newly linking to care at 64 clinics in Zambia between 1 April 2014 and 31 July 2015. We used electronic medical record data and supplemented these with updated care outcomes ascertained by tracing a multistage random sample of patients lost to follow-up (LTFU, \u3e90 days late for last appointment). We performed multistate analyses, incorporating weights from sampling, to estimate the prevalence of 9 care states over time since linkage with respect to ART initiation, retention in care, transfers, and mortality. RESULTS: In sum, 23 227 patients (58% female; median age 34 years [interquartile range 28-41]) were ART-eligible at enrollment. At 1 year, 75.2% had initiated ART and were in care: 61.8% were continuously retained, 6.1% had reengaged after LTFU, and 7.3% had transferred. Also, 10.1% were LTFU within 7 days of enrollment, and 15.2% were LTFU at 1 year (6.7% prior to ART). One year after LTFU, 51.6% of those LTFU prior to ART remained out of care compared to 30.2% of those LTFU after initiating ART. Overall, 6.9% of patients had died by 1 year with 3.0% dying prior to ART. CONCLUSION: Multistate analyses provide more complete assessments of longitudinal HIV cascade outcomes and reveal treatment gaps at distinct timepoints in care that will still need to be addressed even with universal treatment