Customer economics of residential photovoltaic systems: Sensitivities to changes in wholesale market design and rate structures

The customer economics of U.S. residential photovoltaics (PV) often depend on retail electricity rates, because most utilities compensate customer-sited PV generation via net metering. The future bill savings from net metering are uncertain and dependent on retail rate structures, wholesale market design, and renewable penetration levels, among other factors. We explore the impact of the following assumptions on the bill savings from residential PV: a wholesale electricity market design with a price cap (as opposed to an energy-only market); a retail rate with a fixed customer charge (as opposed to a fully volumetric rate); and increasing-block pricing (as opposed to a non-varying flat rate). A wholesale price cap can dampen the expected bill-savings erosion due to moving from a low to a high renewables scenario for customers with time-varying rates and net metering. Moving from a fully volumetric rate to a two-part tariff rate with a fixed customer charge could severely Erode the bill savings under net metering, because PV generation could only displace the (reduced) volumetric portion of the rate. Finally, increasing-block pricing might have an even greater impact on the bill savings from behind-the-meter PV than the other uncertainties explored in this paper

Cost–benefit analysis of rooftop PV systems on utilities and ratepayers in Thailand

Driven by falling photovoltaic (PV) installation costs and potential support policies, rooftop PV is expected to expand rapidly in Thailand. As a result, the relevant stakeholders, especially utilities, have concerns about the net economic impacts of high PV adoption. Using a cost–benefit analysis, this study quantifies the net economic impacts of rooftop PV systems on three utilities and on ratepayers in Thailand by applying nine different PV adoption scenarios with various buyback rates and annual percentages of PV cost reduction. Under Thailand’s current electricity tariff structure, Thai utilities are well-protected and able to pass all costs due to PV onto the ratepayers in terms of changes in retail rates. We find that when PV adoption is low, the net economic impacts on both the utilities and retail rates are small and the impacts on each utility depend on its specific characteristics. On the other hand, when PV adoption ranges from 9–14% in energy basis, five-year retail rate impacts become noticeable and are between 6% and 11% as compared to the projected retail rates in 2036 depending on the PV adoption level. Thus, it is necessary for Thailand to make tradeoffs among the stakeholders and maximize the benefits of rooftop PV adoption

Characterizing local rooftop solar adoption inequity in the US

Residential rooftop solar is slated to play a significant role in the changing US electric grid in the coming decades. However, concerns have emerged that the benefits of rooftop solar deployment are inequitably distributed across demographic groups. Previous work has highlighted inequity in national solar adopter deployment and income trends. We leverage a dataset of US solar adopter household income estimates - unique in its size and resolution - to analyze differences in adoption equity at the local level and identify those conditions that yield more equitable solar adoption, with implications for policy strategies to reduce inequities in solar adoption. The solar inequities observed at the national and state levels also exist at more granular levels, but not uniformly so; some US census tracts exhibit less solar inequity than others. Some demographic, solar system, and market characteristics robustly lead to more equitable solar adoption. Our findings suggest that while solar adoption inequity is frequently attributed to the relatively high costs of solar adoption, costs may become less relevant as solar prices decline. Results also indicate that racial diversity and education levels affect solar adoption patterns at a local level. Finally, we find that solar adoption is more equitable in census tracts served by specific types of installers. Future research and policy can explore ways to leverage these findings to accelerate the transition to equitable solar adoption

Income Trends of Residential PV Adopters: An analysis of household-level income estimates

The residential photovoltaic (PV) market has expanded rapidly over the past decade, but questions exist about how equitably that growth has occurred across income groups. Prior studies have investigated this question but are often limited by narrow geographic study regions, now-dated analysis timeframes, or coarse estimates of PV-adopter incomes. At the same time, a spate of new programs and initiatives, as well as innovations in business models and product design, have emerged in recent years with the aim of making solar more accessible and affordable to broader segments of the population. Yet, many of those efforts are proceeding without robust underlying information about the income characteristics of recent residential PV adopters. This work aims to establish basic factual information about income trends among U.S. residential solar adopters, with some emphasis on low- and moderate-income (LMI) households. The analysis is unique in its relatively extensive coverage of the U.S. solar market, relying on Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun dataset, which contains project-level data for the vast majority of all residential PV systems in the country (a subset of which are ultimately included in the analysis sample). This analysis is also unique in its use of household-level income estimates that provide a more-precise characterization of PV-adopter incomes than in most prior studies

Exploring the impact of increased solar deployment levels on residential electricity bills in India

In this study, the impact of increased solar penetration in the electricity generation mix on residential electricity consumer bills is explored. The study comprises of two sections: simulation of wholesale electricity rates and retail rate modeling. In the first stage, wholesale prices were modeled using a bottom-up long term unit commitment optimization model for different energy mix scenarios based on increased solar penetration, ranging from 5 to 40% on energy basis. The simulations indicated a fall in wholesale prices with increased solar penetration, a result of merit order effect. The simulated wholesale prices were then used to model retail rates for residential consumers. Four different types of retail rates were designed: flat rate, real time pricing, time of use and critical peak pricing. The impact of these retail rate mechanisms on electricity bills of residential consumers was analyzed and it was found that the bill savings achieved from time varying rates are greater than for time invariant rates. With increased solar penetration, customers with time-varying rates are likely to benefit the most from electricity bill savings. Although consumers with flat rate gain bill savings with increased solar penetration, the savings are likely to be lower than with time-varying rates

Solar PV as a mitigation strategy for the US education sector

Solar photovoltaic (PV) is an important strategy to de-carbonize the energy sector in the United States and to reduce the health, environmental, and climate change damages associated with the production of electricity from fossil fuel sources. While the potential for solar PV in the residential and commercial sectors has been widely studied, the potential in educational buildings is largely unknown. Educational institutions account for 11% of total US building electricity consumption and 14% of building floorspace. These buildings also contribute to approximately 4% of total US CO2 emissions, thus playing a potentially important role in climate mitigation strategies. We estimate the electricity use for 132k educational institutions across the US and estimate electricity generation, greenhouse gas and health damaging air emissions reductions, and private and social costs and benefits that would result from adopting rooftop solar PV. We find that solar PV in US educational institutions could provide 100 TWh of electricity services annually, meeting 75% of these buildings' current electricity consumption. We estimate the highest generation potential in Texas, California, and Florida with K-12 public educational institutions comprising the bulk of that generation. The provision of electricity services from rooftop solar PV on educational institutions could reduce health, environmental, and climate change damages by roughly $4 billion per year (assuming a social cost of carbon of$40/ton and value of statistical life of $10M in 2018 USD). Two key findings from this study are that: (i) the private costs of solar for educational institutions still exceed the private benefits from reduced electricity consumption across the entire country (unless a third party operation model is used, in which case some locations can have net-benefits), and (ii) with the exceptions of California and New York, the social health, environmental and climate change benefits exceed the levels of current incentives provided by the state and retail subsidies

Tracking the Sun 10: The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States

Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun report series is dedicated to summarizing trends in the installed price of grid-connected, residential and non-residential systems solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The present report, the tenth edition in the series, focuses on systems installed through year-end 2016, with preliminary data for the first half of 2017. The report provides an overview of both long-term and more-recent trends, highlighting key drivers for installed price declines over different time horizons. The report also extensively characterizes the widespread variability in system pricing, comparing installed prices across states, market segments, installers, and various system and technology characteristics. The trends described in this report derive from project-level data collected by state agencies and utilities that administer PV incentive programs, solar renewable energy credit (SREC) registration systems, or interconnection processes. In total, data for this report were compiled and cleaned for more than 1.1 million individual PV systems, though the analysis in the report is based on a subset of that sample, consisting of roughly 630,000 systems with available installed price data. The full underlying dataset of project-level data (excluding any confidential information) is available in a public data file, for use by other researchers and analysts