Industry Structure Similarities, Trade Agreements, and Business Cycle Synchronization

This paper analyzes the effects of industry structure similarities, free trade agreements, and geographic borders on regional business cycle correlation, using fifty US states, 10 Canadian provinces, and 1 Canadian territory as a case study. Using two cross-sectional OLS regressions and one panel data OLS regression, this study finds that pair-wise gross territorial product growth correlation decreased significantly after NAFTA ratification for state-state, province-province, and state-province territorial pairs, contrary to previous literature’s results. NAFTA effectively decoupled intra-national business cycles in the US and Canada while also desynchronizing cross-border pair-wise GSP growth correlation, but cross-border pair-wise GSP growth correlation was much less desynchronized post-NAFTA relative to intra-national pairs. These results indicate that NAFTA and the US-Canada border may produce two opposing forces that dampen each other’s desynchronizing effects

Is Self-Interacting Dark Matter Undergoing Dark Fusion?

We suggest that two-to-two dark matter fusion may be the relaxation process that resolves the small-scale structure problems of the cold collisionless dark matter paradigm. In order for the fusion cross section to scale correctly across many decades of astrophysical masses from dwarf galaxies to galaxy clusters, we require the fractional binding energy released to be greater than v^n ~ [10^{-(2-3)}]^n, where n=1,2 depends on local dark sector chemistry. The size of the dark-sector interaction cross sections must be sigma ~ 0.1-1 barn, moderately larger than for Standard Model deuteron fusion, indicating a dark nuclear scale Lambda ~ O(100 MeV). Dark fusion firmly predicts constant sigma v below the characteristic velocities of galaxy clusters. Observations of the inner structure of galaxy groups with velocity dispersion of several hundred kilometer per second, of which a handful have been identified, could differentiate dark fusion from a dark photon model.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, comments welcom

On the density of the odd values of the partition function, II: An infinite conjectural framework

We continue our study of a basic but seemingly intractable problem in integer partition theory, namely the conjecture that $p(n)$ is odd exactly $50\%$ of the time. Here, we greatly extend on our previous paper by providing a doubly-indexed, infinite framework of conjectural identities modulo 2, and show how to, in principle, prove each such identity. However, our conjecture remains open in full generality. A striking consequence is that, under suitable existence conditions, if any $t$-multipartition function is odd with positive density and $t\not \equiv 0$ (mod 3), then $p(n)$ is also odd with positive density. These are all facts that appear virtually impossible to show unconditionally today. Our arguments employ a combination of algebraic and analytic methods, including certain technical tools recently developed by Radu in his study of the parity of the Fourier coefficients of modular forms.Comment: 14 pages. To appear in the J. of Number Theor

Opportunities and Challenges: The Caribbean Involvement in the Free Trade Area of the Americas

This Article will examine the region\u27s participation in the process leading to the establishment of the FTAA, and the benefits and challenges associated with its involvement in this hemispheric undertaking. Part One of the Article sets out the rationale for the establishment of the FTAA and the structure of the negotiations. The section also identifies some elements of the unique nature of the proposed grouping. Part Two discusses the challenges facing Caribbean countries as they participate in multilateral trade negotiations, including the FTAA. In Part Three, the Article critically reviews the early stages of the integration process in the Caribbean and examines the most recent developments in the process, particularly in the context of the process of globalization and liberalization. This is followed by Part Four, which discusses the Caribbean\u27s participation in the FTAA

The uniform general signed rank test and its design sensitivity

A sensitivity analysis in an observational study tests whether the qualitative conclusions of an analysis would change if we were to allow for the possibility of limited bias due to confounding. The design sensitivity of a hypothesis test quantifies the asymptotic performance of the test in a sensitivity analysis against a particular alternative. We propose a new, non-asymptotic, distribution-free test, the uniform general signed rank test, for observational studies with paired data, and examine its performance under Rosenbaum's sensitivity analysis model. Our test can be viewed as adaptively choosing from among a large underlying family of signed rank tests, and we show that the uniform test achieves design sensitivity equal to the maximum design sensitivity over the underlying family of signed rank tests. Our test thus achieves superior, and sometimes infinite, design sensitivity, indicating it will perform well in sensitivity analyses on large samples. We support this conclusion with simulations and a data example, showing that the advantages of our test extend to moderate sample sizes as well.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figure

Confronting Wartime Sexual Violence: Public Support for Survivors in Bosnia

Existing research on conflict-related sexual violence focuses on the motivations of perpetrators and effects on survivors. What remains less clear is how postconflict societies respond to the hardships survivors face. In survey experiments in Bosnia, we examine public support for financial aid, legal aid, and public recognition for survivors. First, we find a persistent ethnocentric view of sexual violence, where respondents are less supportive when the perpetrator is identified as co-ethnic and survivors are perceived as out-groups. Second, respondents are less supportive of male survivors than female survivors, which we attribute to social stigmas surrounding same-gender sexual activity. Consistent with our argument, those who are intolerant of homosexuality are especially averse to providing aid to male survivors. This study points to the long-term challenges survivors face due to ethnic divisions and social stigmatization from sexual violence

Algorithm Instance Games

This paper introduces algorithm instance games (AIGs) as a conceptual classification applying to games in which outcomes are resolved from joint strategies algorithmically. For such games, a fundamental question asks: How do the details of the algorithm's description influence agents' strategic behavior? We analyze two versions of an AIG based on the set-cover optimization problem. In these games, joint strategies correspond to instances of the set-cover problem, with each subset (of a given universe of elements) representing the strategy of a single agent. Outcomes are covers computed from the joint strategies by a set-cover algorithm. In one variant of this game, outcomes are computed by a deterministic greedy algorithm, and the other variant utilizes a non-deterministic form of the greedy algorithm. We characterize Nash equilibrium strategies for both versions of the game, finding that agents' strategies can vary considerably between the two settings. In particular, we find that the version of the game based on the deterministic algorithm only admits Nash equilibrium in which agents choose strategies (i.e., subsets) containing at most one element, with no two agents picking the same element. On the other hand, in the version of the game based on the non-deterministic algorithm, Nash equilibrium strategies can include agents with zero, one, or every element, and the same element can appear in the strategies of multiple agents.Comment: 14 page