Evolution and risk in conservation of Pacific salmon

Identifying appropriate units for conservation requires knowledge of evolutionary patterns and risks of managing at different geographical and genetic scales. I examined genetic diversity at different geographical scales among 11,400 rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from 243 locations in 13 major river basins throughout much of their range and among coho salmon (O. kisutch) from 31 watersheds in Oregon, Washington, and northern California. I also developed a model of genetic vulnerability of managed populations that links sources of potential technological hazards, protective mechanisms and responses, and potential losses, using artificial propagation of Pacific salmon as an example. Across the range of rainbow trout, allozyme differences between inland and coastal populations were more localized than previously acknowledged. In contrast, evolutionary continuity was most related to stability and persistence of major river systems, such as upper Sacramento, Klamath, and Columbia rivers. Isolated, pluvial lake basins that contained divergent groups of redband trout (rainbow trout with plesiomorphic characteristics associated with cutthroat trout, O. clarki) were sources of evolutionary diversity within large river systems. Human effects on genetic organization occurred in local breeding populations to regional metapopulations. In coho salmon, regional differences in mitochondrial DNA existed among fish from Puget Sound, Columbia River, northern Oregon coastal streams, and southern coastal streams. Differences within regions lacked obvious geographical patterns but were most likely due to recent fish translocations and genetic drift. In the Umatilla River, Oregon, significant genetic differences were detected among rainbow trout, but temporal differences at sites were as great as differences among sites within tributaries. In 10 of 12 locations, rainbow trout became more similar to anadromous hatchery fish. Although small breeding sizes suggested a role for genetic drift, episodic gene flow from hatchery fish most likely explained temporal genetic changes. Program-specific genetic risk assessment of a large artificial propagation program in the Columbia River revealed that artificial supplementation would result in fewer hatchery-reared fish returning to the wild than were taken from the wild for brood stock, that proximate safeguards for reducing vulnerability were not available and appropriate, but that use of genetic reserves strengthened the program

The Fox and the Hound: Zeus’s Paradox and Prioritizing Ecosystem Recovery

In Greek mythology, Zeus solves the paradox of the giant Teumessian fox, which had the power to never be caught, and Laelaps, the magical hound that always caught its prey, by changing them into constellations (Canis major and Canis minor) where their battle could play out for eternity. Zeus’s paradox also aptly describes the play of politics and science in prioritizing ecosystem recovery actions. Faced with the problem of prioritizing across hundreds of actions identified to recover terrestrial, freshwater, and nearshore domains of the Puget Sound, we structured an interactive process to capture both the key socio-political values of decision makers and expert knowledge about ecological effectiveness. Decision makers identified four important values for prioritization: ecological outcomes, strategic outcomes, protection of tribal treaty rights, and implementation issues. At their direction we decomposed the first two into 27 attributes. Technical experts nominated by decision makers evaluated 74 suites of recovery actions proposed for terrestrial, freshwater, and nearshore ecoystems by the attributes. We used a multi-attribute utility theory model with attribute weights developed with the decision makers to rank the 74 suites of recovery actions. Highest ranked were suites of actions focused on protecting ecosystem structure and functions and on balancing the need to accommodate population growth with ecosystem stressors imposed by development

What Are the Odds? Reframing Fitness in a Changing Environment

Fitness – the propensity to survive and reproduce in a particular environment – is a function of different environments and genotypes. Fitness incorporates the notion of probability, but in fisheries management questions about hatcheries, these probabilities are rarely presented or discussed. This contributes to lack of transparency and confusion between the potential biological effects of artificial propagation and policy positions about the level of acceptable risk. Here we present a knowledge-based, Bayesian assessment tool that describes overall and disaggregated probabilities of loss of fitness from three different mechanisms associated with different salmon hatchery scenarios: antagonistic selection in hatchery and wild environments, relaxation of selection from the wild, and effects of small population size. Hatchery scenarios were based on an extensive review of anadromous hatchery programs in the Pacific Northwest and range from highly intensive intervention in salmonid life-cycles, such as captive breeding programs, to those where there is little intervention. We compare these results with examples of habitat change on fitness driven by society’s needs for development and transportation. We conclude by describing a framework for integrating management decisions about the potential effects of habitat change and hatchery production on fitness that is necessary for salmon recovery

Evaluating and ranking pressures threatening the recovery of the Puget Sound Ecosystem

The Puget Sound Partnership (PSP) and its partner agencies established ecosystem restoration goals to achieve recovery of the Puget Sound ecosystem by 2020. In support of effective ecosystem recovery planning, the PSP’s Biennial Science Work Plan highlights the need for a clear and comprehensive understanding of the relative potential impacts of the various sources of stress (pressures) on ecosystem and human well-being components, which are described using a system of assessment endpoints. To address this need, members of the PSP Science Panel have led the development of a multi-scaled ecosystem pressures assessment approach that builds on a conceptual model of intrinsic ecosystem vulnerability. This conceptual model describes the vulnerability of ecosystem endpoints to individual stressors, within marine & nearshore, terrestrial, and freshwater aquatic ecosystem domains, at the scale of watersheds and marine sub-basins. This presentation will describe: 1) the basis for the ecosystem vulnerability approach, 2) the process used for choosing and defining assessment endpoints and stressors, 3) the structure of the underlying sub-models for intrinsic vulnerability, stressor intensity and distribution, and endpoint distribution, and 4) the expert elicitation process used to parameterize these models. The pressures assessment was designed to support the Partnership’s complicated ecosystem recovery planning processes, which includes integrated basin-scale planning as well as multiple local watershed-scale planning processes. While this presentation focuses on the underpinnings of, and the processes used within, the approach, its workshop-driven implementation and the assessment results and interpretation will be discussed in a separate talk

Puget Sound Pressures Assessment -- What stressors most affect Puget Sound recovery and long-term protection? How is this information being used?

The 2014 Puget Sound Pressures Assessment (PSPA) was an effort commissioned by the Puget Sound Partnership’s Science Panel to better understand the stressors on the Sound’s freshwater, marine-nearshore, and terrestrial resources and identify the critical vulnerabilities that should be addressed to ensure sustainable long-term protection and recovery. The assessment rated the vulnerability of 60 ‘endpoints’ – which are discrete species, habitat types, landforms, or ecological processes – to 47 ‘stressors’ – which are the human and natural processes that are the proximate agents for change to the Puget Sound ecosystem. Key findings include: stressors with the most potential for harm and endpoints that are most vulnerable to harm (intrinsic vulnerability), relative uncertainty about stressor-endpoint relationships, current stressor intensity for geographic assessment unit and Sound-wide, and potential impact of stressors at the assessment unit and Sound-wide scales. Two land cover conversion stressors and two non-point pollution stressors are highly rated in both intrinsic vulnerability and potential impact. Throughout 2015 Partnership staff used PSPA findings to update its evaluation of ecosystem recovery processes and communicated PSPA findings to guide a number of entities’ decisions about priority stressors and sources of stress. The Partnership has also begun to use the PSPA findings as the foundation of a climate vulnerability assessment. These uses of the PSPA findings provide insights into some of the benefits provided by the assessment, limitations and challenges in supporting decisions about priority stressors and sources of stress, and the most-pressing improvements to the 2014 effort and products

A pressure taxonomy and pressure network diagrams for Puget Sound ecosystem recovery

Puget Sound ecosystems, species, and human wellbeing are affected by both natural events and human activities. Broadly, these activities and events that ultimately effect change in the ecosystem via a variety of pathways of effect can be called “pressures” or “threats. In its conceptual models of the Puget Sound ecosystem and of ecosystem recovery efforts, the Puget Sound Partnership (PSP) identifies key components of the ecosystem and the pressures that directly threaten these components. We have developed a pressure taxonomy that is intended to support recovery efforts by improving the ability of practitioners, managers, scientists and decision-makers to communicate, coordinate and collaborate more effectively within and across projects. The taxonomy is hierarchical, including three levels of information – pressure categories, pressure classes, and stressors – and examples of how the elements can be combined to describe pathways of effect. By adopting a standard nomenclature and presenting examples of pressure network diagrams, the PSP pressure taxonomy serves as a starting point for describing the multiple pathways of effect of pressures to Puget Sound ecosystems. The taxonomy has guided the development and implementation of the 2014 Puget Sound Pressure Assessment and will help make the results of that assessment useful to others. Ultimately, if all Puget Sound ecosystem recovery partners are able to reference the common taxonomy, we will increase the region’s capacity to assess risks to Puget Sound ecosystems and develop more effective approaches to managing and reducing threats to the Sound