Nominal GDP Targeting and the Zero Lower Bound: Should We Abandon Inflation Targeting?

I compare nominal GDP level targeting to flexible inflation targeting in a small New Keynesian model subject to the zero lower bound on nominal policy rates. First, I study the performance of optimal discretionary policies. I find that, for a standard calibration, inflation targeting under discretion leaves the economy open to a deflationary trap. Nominal GDP level targeting under discretion, by contrast, provides a firm nominal anchor to the economy. Second, I study simple policy rules and the role of smoothing in the rules. With smoothing, a Taylor-type rule performs as well as a nominal GDP level rule. These result suggest that inflation targeting should not be ditched. Still, it can be improved significantly, by using policy rate smoothing to anchor inflation firmly

Updating Inflation Expectations

This paper investigates how inflation expectations evolve. In particular, we analyze the time-varying nature of the propensity to update expectations and its potential determinants. For this purpose we set up a flexible econometric model that tracks the formation of inflation expectations of consumers at each moment in time. We show that the propensity to update inflation expectations changes substantially over time and is related to the quantity and the quality of news

Is time-variant information stickiness state-dependent?

This paper estimates information stickiness with regard to inflation expectations in the United States and the Eurozone for the 1981/06–2015/12 and 1998/Q4–2015/Q2 periods, respectively, and further investigates whether such information stickiness is state- dependent. Based on a bootstrap sub-sample rolling-window estimation, we find that information stickiness varies over time, which contradicts the strict time dependency implied under sticky-information theory. We provide evidence that information stickiness depends on inflation volatility, which indicates that information stickiness is state-dependent and that it has a time trend. Using a threshold model, we estimate structural changes in the state- dependence and time-trend of information stickiness. The results show that information stickiness has been more dependent on inflation volatility and has had a higher time-trend in both regions following the 2008 financial crisis.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Anchoring of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata

In this paper we explore the degree of anchoring of consumers' long-run inflation expectations. If expectations are firmly anchored, short- and long-run expectations should show no comovement in response to transitory shocks. Utilizing the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer's rotating panel microstructure, we can identify changes in inflation expectations of individual consumers over time. Our results indicate that long-run inflation expectations became more anchored over the last decades. While the degree of comovement fell significantly after 1996, the probability of a joint adjustment stayed constant. Regarding the possible determinants, we find that consumers' rising interest rate expectations and perceived news on the monetary policy stance have a detrimental effect on the anchoring of long-run expectations. This effect is no longer present in the post-1996 period. Notably, a positive effect of perceived news on government debt on the degree of comovement emerges after 1996, alluding to a potentially problematic link between fiscal and monetary policy

What Broke First? Characterizing Sources of Structural Change Prior to the Great Recession

This paper identifies and characterizes episodes of structural change in the 27 years that preceded the Great Recession. This is done by performing Bai-Perron (2003a, 2003b) tests on 61,843 time series that span 34 countries, which collectively accounted for 81% of Gross World Product in 2013. Three major stylized facts are established. First, the rate of structural change increased throughout the early 1990s, stabilized in 2003, and then decreased slowly until 2007. Second, there were three large spikes in the pace of structural change after the 1990-1991 recession: 1993-1994, 2001-2003, and 2007-2009. The latter two overlap with recessions in the U.S. and many other major economies, but the first does not. This spike is associated with structural change in residential investment, consumption, exchange rates, and real estate. Across countries, the degree of structural change is highest in China during this episode. Third, the periods 1993-1994 and 1997-2000 contain heavy structural change in real estate and lending; however, the rate of structural change in house price and construction series was more pronounced in and after 2001

Challenges of Exporting Differentiated Products to Developed Countries: The Case of SME-Dominated Sectors in a Semi-Industrialized Country

This paper surveys four Argentinean industrieslight ships, television programs, wines, and wooden furniturethat have experienced substantial export growth in recent years, particularly to developed countries. The case studies first describe the structure of the industries, then characterize the emergence of export pioneers and the subsequent process of diffusion. Finally, they analyze the role played by public institutions. Across sectors, the appearance of a pioneer is largely explained by a knowledge advantage relative to other industry participants regarding foreign markets, which the pioneer acquired previously and independently of his decision to export. Diffusion occurs across as well as within sectors, as pioneers knowledge is relevant to other industries. Since diffusion does not necessarily hurt the pioneer, public policy has a potentially important role in fostering diffusion within and across sectors

Monetary Policy Shocks, Set-identifying Restrictions, and Asset Prices: A Benchmarking Approach for Analyzing Set-identified Models

A central question for monetary policy is how asset prices respond to a monetary policy shock. We provide evidence on this issue by augmenting a monetary SVAR for US data with an asset price index, using set-identifying structural restrictions. The impulse responses show a positive asset price response to a contractionary monetary policy shock. The resulting monetary policy shocks correlate weakly with the Romer and Romer (2004) (RR) shocks, which matters greatly when analyzing impulse responses. Considering only models with shocks highly correlated with the RR series uncovers a negative, but near-zero response of asset prices