Identification of Causal Effects on Binary Outcomes Using Structural Mean Models

Structural mean models (SMMs) are used to estimate causal effects among those selecting treatment in randomised controlled trials affected by non-ignorable non-compliance. These causal effects can be identified by assuming that there is no effect modification, namely, that the causal effect is equal for the treated subgroups randomised to treatment and to control. By analysing simple structural models for binary outcomes, we argue that the no effect modification assumption does not hold in general, and so SMMs do not estimate causal effects for the treated. An exception is for designs in which those randomised to control can be completely excluded from receiving the treatment. However, when there is non-compliance in the control arm, local (or complier) causal effects can be identified provided that the further assumption of monotonic selection into treatment holds. We demonstrate these issues using numerical examples.structural mean models, identification, local average treatment effects, complier average treatment effects

Instrumental Variable Estimators for Binary Outcomes

The estimation of exposure effects on study outcomes is almost always complicated by non-random exposure selection - even randomised controlled trials can be affected by participant non-compliance. If the selection mechanism is non-ignorable then inferences based on estimators that fail to adjust for its effects will be misleading. Potentially consistent estimators of the exposure effect can be obtained if the data are expanded to include one or more instrumental variables (IVs). An IV must satisfy core conditions constraining it to be associated with the exposure, and indirectly (but not directly) associated with the outcome through this association. Here we consider IV estimators for studies in which the outcome is represented by a binary variable. While work on this problem has been carried out in statistics and econometrics, the estimators and their associated identifying assumptions have existed in the separate domains of structural models and potential outcomes with almost no overlap. In this paper, we review and integrate the work in these areas and reassess the issues of parameter identification and estimator consistency. Identification of maximum likelihood estimators comes from strong parametric modelling assumptions, with consistency depending on these assumptions being correct. Our main focus is on three semi-parametric estimators based on the generalised method of moments, marginal structural models and structural mean models (SMM). By inspecting the identifying assumptions for each method, we show that these estimators are inconsistent even if the true model generating the data is simple, and argue that this implies that consistency is obtained only under implausible conditions. Identification for SMMs can also be obtained under strong exposure-restricting design constraints that are often appropriate for randomised controlled trials, but not for observational studies. Finally, while estimation of local causal parameters is possible if the selection mechanism is monotonic, not all SMMs identify a local parameter.Econometrics, Generalized methods of moments, Parameter identification, Marginal structural models, Structural mean models, Structural models

Instrumental Variable Estimators for Binary Outcomes

Instrumental variables (IVs) can be used to construct estimators of exposure effects on the outcomes of studies affected by non-ignorable selection of the exposure. Estimators which fail to adjust for the effects of non-ignorable selection will be biased and inconsistent. Such situations commonly arise in observational studies, but even randomised controlled trials can be affected by non-ignorable participant non-compliance. In this paper, we review IV estimators for studies in which the outcome is binary. Recent work on identification is interpreted using an integrated structural modelling and potential outcomes framework, within which we consider the links between different approaches developed in statistics and econometrics. The implicit assumptions required for bounding causal effects and point-identification by each estimator are highlighted and compared within our framework. Finally, the implications for practice are discussed.bounds, causal inference, generalized method of moments, local average treatment effects, marginal structural models, non-compliance, parameter identification, potential outcomes, structural mean models, structural models

Comparison of the simplified methods of the ISO 13790 standard and detailed modelling programs in a regulatory context

The CEN Standards that support the European Energy Performance of Buildings Directive requirement for calculation of the energy consumption of buildings allow various methods to be used for the same calculation. The impact of using the different methods within the updated ISO 13790 Standard for space heating and cooling energy calculations was examined with a parametric analysis of a common building specification. The impact was assessed by considering the energy band which would be assigned for the building based on the calculation results. The Standard describes three different methods that can be used for the calculations: a monthly quasi-steady state method, a simplified hourly method and detailed simulation. For most cases studied, differences in the building rating given by the various methods were a maximum of one band. More significant differences were noticed in some cases. Parameter values in the monthly method were determined which would lead to improved matching

A hierarchy of SPI activities for software SMEs: results from ISO/IEC 12207-based SPI assessments

In an assessment of software process improvement (SPI) in 15 software small- and –medium-sized enterprises (software SMEs), we applied the broad spectrum of software specific and system context processes in ISO/IEC 12207 to the task of examining SPI in practice. Using the data collected in the study, we developed a four-tiered pyramidal hierarchy of SPI for software SMEs, with processes in the higher tiers undergoing SPI in more companies than processes on lower level tiers. The development of the hierarchy of SPI activities for software SMEs can facilitate future evolutions of process maturity reference frameworks, such as ISO/IEC 15504, in better supporting software development in software SMEs. Furthermore, the findings extend our body of knowledge concerning the practice of SPI in software SMEs, a large and vital sector of the software development community that has largely avoided the implementation of established process maturity and software quality management standards

Impact of using different models in practice - a case study with the simplified methods of ISO 13790 standard and detailed modelling programs

The updated ISO 13790 Standard is part of the new set of CEN Standards that supports the European Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) requirement for a general framework for calculation of the energy consumption of buildings. The Standard sets out procedures for space heating and cooling energy calculations, allowing the use of three different methods: a simplified monthly quasi-steady state method, a simple-hourly method and detailed simulation. This paper examines the implications of allowing different methods to be used for assessing the energy usage. The research method used was to undertake a comparison of the various methods applied to a common building specification, with parametric analyses of variations in this specification. The paper discusses differences in results for heating and cooling requirements between the simplified methods and when a detailed simulation program (ESP-r) is used with constrained (according to the Standard) inputs and with a number of unconstrained inputs. The case where two different detailed simulation programs (ESP-r and EnergyPlus) are used in practice for the same building is also included and conclusions are drawn regarding the practical use of different detailed modelling programs against the simplified methods, as well as against each other

The political ethics of consumerism

This article draws on research into the development and growth of ethical consumption in the UK to suggest why consumerism and citizenship are not necessarily opposed practices. Consumer-oriented activism offers important pathways to political participation for ordinary people. The organisations involved in this field embed consumer-oriented activism in wider programs of mobilisation, activism, lobbying and campaigning, enrolling ordinary people in active political engagement