Evo, Pablo, Tony, Diego, and Sonny - general equilibrium analysis of the illegal drugs market

This paper presents a general equilibrium model for the production,trafficking, and consumption of illegal drugs which endogenously determines relative prices and quantities. The model is calibrated to characterize the market for cocaine and is used to analyze the effects of three types of policies: making the illegal activities riskier, increasing the penalties for conducting illegal activities, and legalizing previously illegal activities. Assessing the effects of these policies using the powerful tool of a general equilibrium model provides illuminating (and in cases surprising) results.Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Markets and Market Access,Consumption,Currencies and Exchange Rates

Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales with Automated Procedures

This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizonForecasting, Threshold, Artificial Neural Networks, Reality Check, Bootstrap.

Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production with Automated Procedures

This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizonForecasting, Time Series, Threshold, Artificial Neural Networks, Reality Check, Bootstrap

Estimating Stationary ARMA Models Efficiently

This paper discusses the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of the Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) when applied to estimating stationary ARMA models. Issues such of identification, model selection, and testing are also discussed. The properties of these estimators are compared to those of Maximum Likelihood (ML) by means of Monte Carlo experiments for bot invertible and non-invertible ARMA models.