The J2 Status of Chaos in Period Macroeconomic Models

We reconsider the issue of the (non-)equivalence of period and continuous time analysis in macroeconomic theory and its implications for the existence of chaotic dynamics in empirical macro. We start from the methodological precept that period and continuous time representations of the same macrostructure should give rise to the same qualitative outcome, i.e. in particular, that the results of period analysis should not depend on the length of the period. A simple example where this is fulfilled is given by the Solow growth model, while all chaotic dynamics in period models of dimension less than 3 are in conflict with this precept. We discuss a recent and typical example from the literature, where chaos results from an asymptotically stable continuous-time macroeconomic model when this is reformulated as a discrete-time model with a long period length.Period models, continuous time, (non-)equivalence, chaotic dynamics.

Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in Economies with Partial Dollarisation of Liabilities

The right response to a speculative attack on the domestic currency by monetary authorities in a country with liabilities in US dollars has been a matter of hot debate among academics and policy makers especially after the East Asian Crisis. Using a modified version of the currency crisis model discussed in Proano, Flaschel and Semmler (2005) the authors show that an increase of the domestic interest rate by the central bank as a response to the speculative attack can have serious negative effects on aggregate demand by depressing the investment activity of those domestic firms which are not indebted in foreign currency. The authors demonstrate that in specific situations the standard (IMF supported) increase of the domestic interest rate might not be the best response to a speculative attack on the domestic currency from a medium term point of view.Mundell-Fleming-Tobin model, liability dollarisation, debt-financed investment, financial crisis, currency crisis, deflation.

Recession Forecasting with Dynamic Probit Models under Real Time Conditions

In this paper a dynamic probit model for recession forecasing under pseudo-real time is set up using a large set of macroeconomic and financial monthly indicators for Germany. Using different initial sets of explanatory variables, alternative dynamic probit specifications are obtained through an automatized general-to-specific lag selection procedure, which are then pooled in order to decrease the volatility of the estimated recession probabilities and increase their forecasting accuracy. As it is shown in the paper, this procedure does not only feature good in-sample forecast statistics, but has also good out-of-sample performance, as pseudo-real time evaluation exercises show.Dynamic probit models, out-of-sample forecasting, yield curve, real-time econometrics

On the Determinacy of New Keynesian Models with Staggered Wage and Price Setting

This paper shows that an analytical determinacy analysis of the baseline New Keynesian model with both staggered wages and prices developed by Erceg, Henderson and Levin (2000) is possible despite the high dimensional nature of this model. It is possible if the formulation of the model is translated from discrete to continuous time. Our findings corroborates in an analytical manner Galí's (2008) numerical findings regarding the determinacy frontier and the Taylor principle for this model type, where a generalized Taylor rule that employs a weighted combination of wage and price inflation is used as a measure for the inflation gap.Period models, continuous time, (in)determinacy.

Currency Runs, International Reserves Management and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules

This paper studies the design of optimal monetary policy rules for emerging economies confronted to sharp capital outflows and speculative attacks. We extend Taylor type monetary policy rules by allowing the central bank to give some weight to the level of precautionary foreign reserve balances as one of its targets. We show that a currency crisis scenario can easily occur when the weight is zero, and that it can be avoided when the weight is positive. The impacts of the central bank's monetary control on the output level, the inflation rate, the exchange rate, and the foreign reserve level are investigated as well. By applying both the Hamiltonian as well as the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation (the latter leading to a dynamic programming formulation of the problem), we can explore safe domains of attractions in a variety of complicated model variants. Given the uncertainties the central banks faces, we also show of how central banks can enlarge safe domains of attraction.Currency Crises, Capital Outflows, Monetary Policy Rules

Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves

The authors of this paper formulate a disequilibrium AS-AD model based on sticky wages and prices, perfect foresight of current inflation rates and adaptive expectations concerning the inflation climate in which the economy operates. The model consists of a wage and a price Phillips curves, a dynamic IS curve as well as a dynamic employment adjustment equation and a Taylor-rule-type interest rate law of motion. Through instrumental variables GMM system estimation with aggregate time series data for the U.S. and the euro area economies, the authors obtain structural parameter estimates which support the specification of their theoretical model and show the importance of the inflationary climate, as well as of the Blanchard-Katz error correction terms, and indirectly of income distribution, in the dynamics of wage and price inflation in the U.S. and the euro area economies.AS-AD disequilibrium, wage and price Phillips curves, real wage adjustment

Sustainable Capitalism: Full-Employment Flexicurity Growth with Real Wage Rigidities

In this paper we present a model of flexicurity capitalism that exhibits a second labor market with the government as an employer of first resort, where all workers not employed by firms in the private sector find meaningful employment. We show that the model exhibits a unique interior steady state which is asymptotically stable under real wage adjustment dynamics of the type considered in Blanchard and Katz (1999), and under a type of Okun's Law that links the level of utilization of firms to their hiring and firing decision. The introduction of a company pension fund can be shown to contribute to the viability of the analyzed economic system. However, when credit is incorporated in the model, in place of savings-driven supply side fluctuations in economic activity, investment-driven demand side business cycle fluctuations (of a probably much more volatile type) can take place.Flexicurity, employer of ¯rst resort, Solovian growth, company pension funds, sustainability

Employment Cycles, Low Income Work and the Dynamic Impact of Minimum Wages. A Macro Perspective

In this paper we investigate the macroeconomic consequences of the introduction of an unemployment benefit system and a minimum wage barrier for both skilled and unskilled workers against the background of Goodwin's (1967) model. In the analyzed framework, characterized by free "hiring" and "firing" in the first labor markets, we can show a) that large fluctuations in employment are made (at least partially) socially acceptable through the workfare nature of the unemployment benefit system and b) that minimum real wages provide additional stability to the system dynamics by decreasing the amplitude of the fluctuations in employment and income distribution (and the related degradation of the workforce skills and family structures they are otherwise subject to).Distributive cycles, minimum wages, stability, combined wages, base income, workfare

Overconsumption, Credit Rationing and Bailout Monetary Policy: A Minskyan Perspective

We consider a Keynes-Goodwin model of effective demand and the distributive cycle where workers purchase goods and houses with marginal propensity significantly larger than one. They therefore need credit, supplied from asset holders, and have to pay interest on their outstanding debt. In this initial situation, the steady state is attracting, while a marginal propensity closer to one makes it repelling. The stable excessive overconsumption case can easily turn from a stable boom to explosiveness and from there through induced processes of credit rationing into a devastating bust. In such a situation the Central Bank may prevent the worst by acting as creditor of last resort, purchasing loans where otherwise debt default (and bankruptcy regarding house ownership) would occur. This bail-out policy can stabilize the economy and also reduces the loss of homes of worker families.mortgage loans, booms, debt default, busts, creditor of last resort.