Identification of Demand through Statistical Distribution Modeling for Improved Demand Forecasting

Demand functions for goods are generally cyclical in nature with characteristics such as trend or stochasticity. Most existing demand forecasting techniques in literature are designed to manage and forecast this type of demand functions. However, if the demand function is lumpy in nature, then the general demand forecasting techniques may fail given the unusual characteristics of the function. Proper identification of the underlying demand function and using the most appropriate forecasting technique becomes critical. In this paper, we will attempt to explore the key characteristics of the different types of demand function and relate them to known statistical distributions. By fitting statistical distributions to actual past demand data, we are then able to identify the correct demand functions, so that the the most appropriate forecasting technique can be applied to obtain improved forecasting results. We applied the methodology to a real case study to show the reduction in forecasting errors obtained

Global dynamic modeling of a transmission system

The work performed on global dynamic simulation and noise correlation of gear transmission systems at the University of Akron is outlined. The objective is to develop a comprehensive procedure to simulate the dynamics of the gear transmission system coupled with the effects of gear box vibrations. The developed numerical model is benchmarked with results from experimental tests at NASA Lewis Research Center. The modal synthesis approach is used to develop the global transient vibration analysis procedure used in the model. Modal dynamic characteristics of the rotor-gear-bearing system are calculated by the matrix transfer method while those of the gear box are evaluated by the finite element method (NASTRAN). A three-dimensional, axial-lateral coupled bearing model is used to couple the rotor vibrations with the gear box motion. The vibrations between the individual rotor systems are coupled through the nonlinear gear mesh interactions. The global equations of motion are solved in modal coordinates and the transient vibration of the system is evaluated by a variable time-stepping integration scheme. The relationship between housing vibration and resulting noise of the gear transmission system is generated by linear transfer functions using experimental data. A nonlinear relationship of the noise components to the fundamental mesh frequency is developed using the hypercoherence function. The numerically simulated vibrations and predicted noise of the gear transmission system are compared with the experimental results from the gear noise test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center. Results of the comparison indicate that the global dynamic model developed can accurately simulate the dynamics of a gear transmission system

Low-energy excitations of the one-dimensional half-filled SU(4) Hubbard model with an attractive on-site interaction: Density-matrix renormalization-group calculations and perturbation theory

We investigate low-energy excitations of the one-dimensional half-filled SU(4) Hubbard model with an attractive on-site interaction U < 0 using the density matrix renormalization group method as well as a perturbation theory. We find that the ground state is a charge density wave state with a long range order. The ground state is completely incompressible since all the excitations are gapful. The charge gap which is the same as the four-particle excitation gap is a non-monotonic function of U, while the spin gap and others increase with increasing |U| and have linear asymptotic behaviors.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, submitte

Using MODIS Satellite Images to Confirm Distributed Snowmelt Model Results in a Small Arctic Watershed

Environmental analysts face the problem of obtaining distributed measurements to evaluate the performance of models with increasingly small spatiotemporal resolution. While U.S. government agencies readily provide both measurement products and data tools for the study of global change occurring over entire seasons and across continental areas, analysts need access to the low-level data that provides the basis for global products. Finally, analysts need to consider sensor errors inherent in low-level products that are accounted for in global, composite products. Hydrologists using tools for managing low-level snow swath measurements, in particular, must consider how measurements are affected by sensor errors like snow-cloud confusion and sensor errors due to low ground illumination at night. This thesis aims to explore the use of remotely sensed snow maps to confirm a time series of model maps. Specifically, snow covered area (SCA) measurements remotely sensed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are used to confirm SCA predictions modeled by the United States Agriculture Department (USDA). The measurements come from the two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard near-polar, sun-synchronous satellites named Aqua and Terra. The USDA calls the model TOPMODEL-Based Land-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (TOPLATS). The Upper Kuparuk River Watershed (UKRW) on the North Slope of Alaska acts as the case study location. To meet the map-comparison goal, the Kappa statistic, Kappa statistic variants, and probability density functions expressing measurement uncertainty in discrete scenes all evaluate the ability of MODIS measurements to confirm the accuracy of TOPLATS model maps. Data management objectives to make measured data accessible and comparable to the model output comprise a supporting goal. Results show that individual composite statistics, like the proportion of agreement between two maps, can easily obscure spatiotemporally distributed confirmation information without additional statistics and side-by-side images of measurement maps and model maps. These tools show some promise for using MODIS to confirm model predictions of snowmelt that occur across less than 150 km2 and less than a few days, however, clouds and malfunctioning sensors limit such use

Vibration and noise analysis of a gear transmission system

This paper presents a comprehensive procedure to predict both the vibration and noise generated by a gear transmission system under normal operating conditions. The gearbox vibrations were obtained from both numerical simulation and experimental studies using a gear noise test rig. In addition, the noise generated by the gearbox vibrations was recorded during the experimental testing. A numerical method was used to develop linear relationships between the gearbox vibration and the generated noise. The hypercoherence function is introduced to correlate the nonlinear relationship between the fundamental noise frequency and its harmonics. A numerical procedure was developed using both the linear and nonlinear relationships generated from the experimental data to predict noise resulting from the gearbox vibrations. The application of this methodology is demonstrated by comparing the numerical and experimental results from the gear noise test rig

Vibration signature analysis of multistage gear transmission

An analysis is presented for multistage multimesh gear transmission systems. The analysis predicts the overall system dynamics and the transmissibility to the gear box or the enclosed structure. The modal synthesis approach of the analysis treats the uncoupled lateral/torsional model characteristics of each stage or component independently. The vibration signature analysis evaluates the global dynamics coupling in the system. The method synthesizes the interaction of each modal component or stage with the nonlinear gear mesh dynamics and the modal support geometry characteristics. The analysis simulates transient and steady state vibration events to determine the resulting torque variations, speeds, changes, rotor imbalances, and support gear box motion excitations. A vibration signature analysis examines the overall dynamic characteristics of the system, and the individual model component responses. The gear box vibration analysis also examines the spectral characteristics of the support system

Modal simulation of gearbox vibration with experimental correlation

A newly developed global dynamic model was used to simulate the dynamics of a gear noise rig at NASA Lewis Research Center. Experimental results from the test rig were used to verify the analytical model. In this global dynamic model, the number of degrees of freedom of the system are reduced by transforming the system equations of motion into modal coordinates. The vibration of the individual gear-shaft system are coupled through the gear mesh forces. A three-dimensional, axial-lateral coupled, bearing model was used to couple the casing structural vibration to the gear-rotor dynamics. The coupled system of modal equations is solved to predict the resulting vibration at several locations on the test rig. Experimental vibration data was compared to the predictions of the global dynamic model. There is excellent agreement between the vibration results from analysis and experiment

Analytical and experimental study of vibrations in a gear transmission

An analytical simulation of the dynamics of a gear transmission system is presented and compared to experimental results from a gear noise test rig at the NASA Lewis Research Center. The analytical procedure developed couples the dynamic behaviors of the rotor-bearing-gear system with the response of the gearbox structure. The modal synthesis method is used in solving the overall dynamics of the system. Locally each rotor-gear stage is modeled as an individual rotor-bearing system using the matrix transfer technique. The dynamics of each individual rotor are coupled with other rotor stages through the nonlinear gear mesh forces and with the gearbox structure through bearing support systems. The modal characteristics of the gearbox structure are evaluated using the finite element procedure. A variable time steping integration routine is used to calculate the overall time transient behavior of the system in modal coordinates. The global dynamic behavior of the system is expressed in a generalized coordinate system. Transient and steady state vibrations of the gearbox system are presented in the time and frequency domains. The vibration characteristics of a simple single mesh gear noise test rig is modeled. The numerical simulations are compared to experimental data measured under typical operating conditions. The comparison of system natural frequencies, peak vibration amplitudes, and gear mesh frequencies are generally in good agreement

Dynamics of Multistage Gear Transmission with Effects of Gearbox Vibrations

A comprehensive approach is presented in analyzing the dynamic behavior of multistage gear transmission systems with the effects of gearbox induced vibrations and mass imbalances of the rotor. The modal method, with undamped frequencies and planar mode shapes, is used to reduce the degrees of freedom of the gear system for time-transient dynamic analysis. Both the lateral and torsional vibration modes of each rotor-bearing-gear stage as well as the interstage vibrational characteristics are coupled together through localized gear mesh tooth interactions. In addition, gearbox vibrations are also coupled to the rotor-bearing-gear system dynamics through bearing support forces between the rotor and the gearbox. Transient and steady state dynamics of lateral and torsional vibrations of the geared system are examined in both time and frequency domains to develop interpretations of the overall modal dynamic characteristics under various operating conditions. A typical three-stage geared system is used as an example. Effects of mass imbalance and gearbox vibrations on the system dynamic behavior are presented in terms of modal excitation functions for both lateral and torsional vibrations. Operational characteristics and conclusions are drawn from the results presented

Modal analysis of multistage gear systems coupled with gearbox vibrations

An analytical procedure to simulate vibrations in gear transmission systems is presented. This procedure couples the dynamics of the rotor-bearing gear system with the vibration in the gear box structure. The model synthesis method is used in solving the overall dynamics of the system, and a variable time-stepping integration scheme is used in evaluating the global transient vibration of the system. Locally each gear stage is modeled as a multimass rotor-bearing system using a discrete model. The modal characteristics are calculated using the matrix-transfer technique. The gearbox structure is represented by a finite element models, and modal parameters are solved by using NASTRAN. The rotor-gear stages are coupled through nonlinear compliance in the gear mesh while the gearbox structure is coupled through the bearing supports of the rotor system. Transient and steady state vibrations of the coupled system are examined in both time and frequency domains. A typical three-geared system is used as an example for demonstration of the developed procedure