Joint modeling of teleseismic and tsunami wave observations to constrain the 16 September 2015 Illapel, Chile, M_w 8.3 earthquake rupture process

The 16 September 2015 Illapel, Chile, M_w 8.3 earthquake ruptured ~170 km along the plate boundary megathrust fault from 30.0°S to 31.6°S. A patch of offshore slip of up to 10 m extended to near the trench, and a patch of ~3 m slip occurred downdip below the coast. Aftershocks fringe the large-slip zone, extending along the coast from 29.5°S to 32.5°S between the 1922 and 1971/1985 ruptures. The coseismic slip distribution is determined by iterative modeling of teleseismic body waves as well as tsunami signals recorded at three regional DART stations and tide gauges immediately north and south of the rupture. The tsunami observations tightly delimit the rupture length, suppressing bilateral southward extension of slip found in unconstrained teleseismic-wave inversions. The spatially concentrated rupture area, with a stress drop of ~3.2 MPa, is validated by modeling DART and tide gauge observations in Hawaii, which also prove sensitive to the along-strike length of the rupture

Two regions of seafloor deformation generated the tsunami for the 13 November 2016, Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake

The 13 November 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand, M_w 7.8 earthquake ruptured multiple crustal faults in the transpressional Marlborough and North Canterbury tectonic domains of northeastern South Island. The Hikurangi trench and underthrust Pacific slab terminate in the region south of Kaikoura, as the subdution zone transitions to the Alpine fault strike-slip regime. It is difficult to establish whether any coseismic slip occurred on the megathrust from on-land observations. The rupture generated a tsunami well recorded at tide gauges along the eastern coasts and in Chatham Islands, including a ~4 m crest-to-trough signal at Kaikoura where coastal uplift was about 1 m, and at multiple gauges in Wellington Harbor. Iterative modeling of teleseismic body waves and the regional water-level recordings establishes that two regions of seafloor motion produced the tsunami, including an M_w ~7.6 rupture on the megathrust below Kaikoura and comparable size transpressional crustal faulting extending offshore near Cook Strait

The 2017 M_W 8.2 Chiapas, Mexico Earthquake: Energetic Slab Detachment

On 8 September 2017, a great (M_w 8.2) normal faulting earthquake ruptured within the subducting Cocos Plate ~70 km landward from the Middle American Trench beneath the Tehuantepec gap. Iterative inversion and modeling of teleseismic and tsunami data and prediction of GPS displacements indicate that the steeply dipping rupture extended ~180 km to the northwest along strike toward the Oaxaca coast and from ~30 to 70 km in depth, with peak slip of ~13 m. The rupture likely broke through the entire lithosphere of the young subducted slab in response to downdip slab pull. The plate boundary region between the trench and the fault intersection with the megathrust appears to be frictionally coupled, influencing location of the detachment. Comparisons of the broadband body wave magnitude (m_B) and moment-scaled radiated energy (E_R/M_0) establish that intraslab earthquakes tend to be more energetic than interplate events, accounting for strong ground shaking observed for the 2017 event

Effects of dispersion in tsunami Green's functions and implications for joint inversion with seismic and geodetic data: a case study of the 2010 Mentawai M_W 7.8 earthquake

Tsunami observations play an important role in resolving offshore earthquake slip distributions. Nondispersive shallow-water models are often used with a static initial sea surface pulse derived from seafloor deformation in computation of tsunami Green's functions. We compare this conventional approach with more advanced techniques based on a dispersive model with a static initial sea surface pulse and with the surface waves generated from kinematic seafloor deformation. These three sets of tsunami Green's functions are implemented in finite-fault inversions with and without seismic and geodetic data for the 2010 Mentawai M_w 7.8 tsunami earthquake. Seafloor excitation and wave dispersion produce more spread-out waveforms in the Green's functions leading to larger slip with more compact distribution through the inversions. The fit to the recorded tsunami and the deduced seismic moment, which reflects the displaced water volume, are relatively insensitive to the approach used for computing Green's functions

Ratio estimators of intervention effects on event rates in cluster randomized trials.

We consider five asymptotically unbiased estimators of intervention effects on event rates in non-matched and matched-pair cluster randomized trials, including ratio of mean counts r 1 , ratio of mean cluster-level event rates r 2 , ratio of event rates r 3 , double ratio of counts r 4 , and double ratio of event rates r 5 . In the absence of an indirect effect, they all estimate the direct effect of the intervention. Otherwise, r 1 , r 2 , and r 3 estimate the total effect, which comprises the direct and indirect effects, whereas r 4 and r 5 estimate the direct effect only. We derive the conditions under which each estimator is more precise or powerful than its alternatives. To control bias in studies with a small number of clusters, we propose a set of approximately unbiased estimators. We evaluate their properties by simulation and apply the methods to a trial of seasonal malaria chemoprevention. The approximately unbiased estimators are practically unbiased and their confidence intervals usually have coverage probability close to the nominal level; the asymptotically unbiased estimators perform well when the number of clusters is approximately 32 or more per trial arm. Despite its simplicity, r 1 performs comparably with r 2 and r 3 in trials with a large but realistic number of clusters. When the variability of baseline event rate is large and there is no indirect effect, r 4 and r 5 tend to offer higher power than r 1 , r 2 , and r 3 . We discuss the implications of these findings to the planning and analysis of cluster randomized trials

Effects of dispersion in tsunami Green's functions and implications for joint inversion with seismic and geodetic data: a case study of the 2010 Mentawai M_W 7.8 earthquake

Tsunami observations play an important role in resolving offshore earthquake slip distributions. Nondispersive shallow-water models are often used with a static initial sea surface pulse derived from seafloor deformation in computation of tsunami Green's functions. We compare this conventional approach with more advanced techniques based on a dispersive model with a static initial sea surface pulse and with the surface waves generated from kinematic seafloor deformation. These three sets of tsunami Green's functions are implemented in finite-fault inversions with and without seismic and geodetic data for the 2010 Mentawai M_w 7.8 tsunami earthquake. Seafloor excitation and wave dispersion produce more spread-out waveforms in the Green's functions leading to larger slip with more compact distribution through the inversions. The fit to the recorded tsunami and the deduced seismic moment, which reflects the displaced water volume, are relatively insensitive to the approach used for computing Green's functions

The 2017 M_W 8.2 Chiapas, Mexico Earthquake: Energetic Slab Detachment

On 8 September 2017, a great (M_w 8.2) normal faulting earthquake ruptured within the subducting Cocos Plate ~70 km landward from the Middle American Trench beneath the Tehuantepec gap. Iterative inversion and modeling of teleseismic and tsunami data and prediction of GPS displacements indicate that the steeply dipping rupture extended ~180 km to the northwest along strike toward the Oaxaca coast and from ~30 to 70 km in depth, with peak slip of ~13 m. The rupture likely broke through the entire lithosphere of the young subducted slab in response to downdip slab pull. The plate boundary region between the trench and the fault intersection with the megathrust appears to be frictionally coupled, influencing location of the detachment. Comparisons of the broadband body wave magnitude (m_B) and moment-scaled radiated energy (E_R/M_0) establish that intraslab earthquakes tend to be more energetic than interplate events, accounting for strong ground shaking observed for the 2017 event