How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?

This paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major greenhouse gas, and examines how these gases affect the frequency and strength of El Niño on the global economy. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility accurately, and that 1998 is a turning point, which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased since 1998. Moreover, the increasing ENSO strength is due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The ENSO strengths for Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are predicted for the year 2030 to increase from 29.62% to 81.5% if global CO2 emissions increase by 40% to 110%, respectively. This indicates that we will be faced with even stronger El Nino or La Nina effects in the future if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unabated

Modelling the Effects of Oil Prices on Global Fertilizer Prices and Volatility

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models, including GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR models, are used to investigate the relationship between crude oil price and six global fertilizer prices. The empirical results from ARDL show that most fertilizer prices are significantly affected by the crude oil price while the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in other periods

Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, and GJR model, are used to investigate the relationship between crude oil price and six global fertilizer prices. Weekly data for 2003-2008 for the seven price series are analyzed. The empirical results from ARDL show that most fertilizer prices are significantly affected by the crude oil price, which explains why global fertilizer prices reached a peak in 2008. We also find that that the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in other periods, and that the peak crude oil price caused greater volatility in the crude oil price and global fertilizer prices. As volatility invokes financial risk, the relationship between oil price and global fertilizer prices and their associated volatility is important for public policy relating to the development of optimal energy use, global agricultural production, and financial integration

An econometric analysis of SARS and Avian flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia

This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu will be compared directly according to human deaths. The nature of the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively. Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus, while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of SARS

The Source Detection of 28 September 2018 Sulawesi Tsunami by Using Ionospheric GNSS Total Electron Content Disturbance

The 28 September 2018 magnitude Mw7.8 Palu, Indonesia earthquake (0.178° S, 119.840° E, depth 13 km) occurred at 10:02 UTC. The major earthquake triggered catastrophic liquefaction, landslides, and a near-field tsunami. The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) derived from records of 5 ground-based global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers is employed to detect tsunami traveling ionospheric disturbances (TTIDs). In total, 15 TTIDs have been detected. The ray-tracing and beamforming techniques are then used to find the TTID source location. The bootstrap method is applied in order to further explore the possible location of the tsunami source based on results of the two techniques, which show the beamforming technique has a slightly better performance on finding possible locations of the tsunami source. Meanwhile, the circle method is employed to examine tsunami signatures of the sea-surface height and video records, and find possible tsunami origin locations. The coincidence of the TTID source location and the tsunami location shows that the ionospheric TEC recorded by local ground-based GNSS receivers can be used to confirm the tsunami occurrence, find the tsunami location, and support the tsunami early warning

Scalar-Torsion Mode in a Cosmological Model of the Poincar\'{e} Gauge Theory of Gravity

We investigate the equation of state (EoS) of the scalar-torsion mode in Poincar\'{e} gauge theory of gravity. We concentrate on two cases with the constant curvature solution and positive kinetic energy, respectively. In the former, we find that the torsion EoS has different values in the various stages of the universe. In particular, it behaves like the radiation (matter) EoS of $w_r=1/3$ ($w_m=0$) in the radiation (matter) dominant epoch, while in the late time the torsion density is supportive for the accelerating universe. In the latter, our numerical analysis shows that in general the EoS has an asymptotic behavior in the high redshift regime, while it could cross the phantom divide line in the low redshift regime.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, title changed, revised version accepted for publication in JCA

Tellurium substitution effect on superconductivity of the alpha-phase Iron Selenide

We have carried out a systematic study of the PbO-type compound FeSe_{1-x}Te_x (x = 0~1), where Te substitution effect on superconductivity is investigated. It is found that superconducting transition temperature reaches a maximum of Tc=15.2K at about 50% Te substitution. The pressure-enhanced Tc of FeSe0.5Te0.5 is more than 10 times larger than that of FeSe. Interestingly, FeTe is no longer superconducting. A low temperature structural distortion changes FeTe from triclinic symmetry to orthorhombic symmetry. We believe that this structural change breaks the magnetic symmetry and suppresses superconductivity in FeTe.Comment: Some typing errors are corrected; we take out one figures, now the paper has 14 pages, 5 figure

Spanning trees on the Sierpinski gasket

We obtain the numbers of spanning trees on the Sierpinski gasket $SG_d(n)$ with dimension $d$ equal to two, three and four. The general expression for the number of spanning trees on $SG_d(n)$ with arbitrary $d$ is conjectured. The numbers of spanning trees on the generalized Sierpinski gasket $SG_{d,b}(n)$ with $d=2$ and $b=3,4$ are also obtained.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, 1 tabl