The Impact of Migration on Foreign Trade: A Developing Country Approach

While the causal relationship between migration and trade has not been studied thoroughly, estimation results of gravity model approach suggest that important aspects determining trade volumes can be missed if additional factors, including migration, are not considered. The current paper aims at testing the impact of migration on foreign trade in a relatively closed small economy. We use the data of Bolivia, for the years 1990–2003. We apply gravity model, adding a migration variable to the explanatory variables. We test the impact of both, immigration and emigration on exports and imports and also on intra-industry trade. We use panel estimation including data of 30 trade partners (selected according to higher trade intensity with Bolivia). We control for the economic size and geographical location of trade partners, and for changes in terms of trade. Previous studies show an increasing effect of immigration on both exports and imports elasticities. Some studies find larger exports elasticity compared to imports elasticity, some vice versa. We could not find any studies on emigration impact on trade. Our results show relatively similar impact of both immigration and emigration on foreign trade. Positive significant effect of immigration on exports and imports is confirmed also in Bolivia, even when the migration flows in Bolivia are not as high as in the case of most countries analyzed previously. We can conclude positive effect of migration flows also on intra-industry trade. In the following analysis, we intend to control for the impact of trade agreements and openness of trade partners. We will also try to broaden the sample of trade partners used in the current estimation and to test the hypotheses on other developing countries.migration; trade; gravity model; Bolivia

Financial Development and the Distribution of Income in Latin America and the Caribbean

One of the central concerns in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has been the reduction of poverty and inequality so prevalent in the continent. Using large world samples, the literature has found that financial development increases economic growth, increases the income of the poor, and reduces inequality. This paper studies the effects of financial development on the whole distribution of income in LAC. We find that the income of the poorest quintile has not been affected by expansion in the financial system. However, we do find that financial development has had a disproportionate positive effect on the incomes of the second, third and fourth quintiles. We also find some evidence for the Greenwood-Jovanovic (1991) hypothesis that this positive effect only begins after a country crosses a certain economic development threshold.distribution of income, financial development, inequality

Domestic Violence and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from a Mixed-Race Developing Country

This study investigates the heterogeneous effects of domestic violence over labor markets in an ethnically fragmented country such as Bolivia. Among developing countries, Bolivia “excels” in having one of the highest levels of domestic violence in the region. Anecdotal evidence and empirical evidence suggest that response to domestic violence is not homogeneous across different ethnic groups. Using information from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Bolivia, we examine the heterogeneous impacts of domestic violence over one of the key labor market outcomes such as employment. We employ a probabilistic decision model and treatment regression techniques to examine this effect. We claim that the impact of domestic violence on labor markets is limited among indigenous people, given that violence is, to some extent, socially recognized and accepted. We find that for most of the cases, indigenous women are less responsive to domestic violence than non-indigenous ones, except for groups with a high income level. Our results are robust for alternative methodologies to address possible endogeneity problems.labor markets, domestic violence, Bolivia, indigenous

The Impact of Migration on Foreign Trade: A Developing Country Approach

While the causal relationship between migration and trade has not been studied thoroughly, estimation results of gravity model approach suggest that important aspects determining trade volumes can be missed if additional factors, including migration, are not considered. The current paper aims at testing the impact of migration on foreign trade in a relatively closed small economy. We use the data of Bolivia, for the years 1990–2003. We apply gravity model, adding a migration variable to the explanatory variables. We test the impact of both, immigration and emigration on exports and imports and also on intra-industry trade. We use panel estimation including data of 30 trade partners (selected according to higher trade intensity with Bolivia). We control for the economic size and geographical location of trade partners, and for changes in terms of trade. Previous studies show an increasing effect of immigration on both exports and imports elasticities. Some studies find larger exports elasticity compared to imports elasticity, some vice versa. We could not find any studies on emigration impact on trade. Our results show relatively similar impact of both immigration and emigration on foreign trade. Positive significant effect of immigration on exports and imports is confirmed also in Bolivia, even when the migration flows in Bolivia are not as high as in the case of most countries analyzed previously. We can conclude positive effect of migration flows also on intra-industry trade. In the following analysis, we intend to control for the impact of trade agreements and openness of trade partners. We will also try to broaden the sample of trade partners used in the current estimation and to test the hypotheses on other developing countries

Polarized Education Levels and Civil War

This paper suggests that societies exhibiting a large degree of educational polarization among its populace are systematically more likely to slip into civil conflict and civil war. Intuitively, political preferences and beliefs of highly educated citizens are likely to differ fundamentally from those of uneducated citizens. We propose an index of educational polarization and test its predictive power in explaining the likelihood of civil conflict and civil war, analyzing 146 countries (equivalent to over 93 percent of the world population) from 1950 to 2014. Our results produce strong evidence for a positive, statistically powerful, and economically sizeable relationship. In our benchmark estimation, a one standard deviation increase in educational polarization is associated with a 4.6 and 3.8 percentage point rise in the chances of civil conflict and civil war, respectively. These results are robust to the inclusion of the conventional control variables, country-fixed effects, and country-specific time trends

Unemployment duration and labor mobility in Argentina: a socioeconomic-based pre and post-crisis analysis

This paper evaluates the unemployment duration and labor mobility using data from the household surveys provided by the National Statistical office (INDEC) for the period 1998 to 2005. The paper aims to understand and explain the evolution and main determinants of labor mobility and unemployment duration, two of the main problems that labor markets present. Unemployment duration is studied in terms of welfare and its determinants by applying stochastic dominance and econometric techniques. Labor mobility is analyzed using conditional multinomial probit techniques in order to evaluate its evolution, the impact of a crisis and the recovery period, that Argentina faced over the period 1998-2005. We found that there was deterioration in welfare measured by unemployment duration especially during the crisis period. We found that human capital played a key role in the unemployment duration and labour mobility. Unemployment duration is higher for people with higher educational levels, which shows that less educated people have lower reservations wages; similar result was found for females and males. The labour mobility results show that more educated people enter easier to formal labor markets which changes during the crisis when their probability of entering to formal labor market reduces; this would suggest that more educated people tend to adjust their wages and push out of the market less educated people. The labour mobility patterns do not reflect inflexibility in labour markets. We conclude that the apparent duality -formal and informal- in the Argentinean labour market which seems to reflect differences in access to productive resources (human capital) outside labour market is the one that determines the integration into labour markets and later labour mobility of a big part of labour force.Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS

Medium and long run economic assimilation of Venezuelan migrants to Peru

In a span of six years, the proportion of Venezuelans in Perú has surged nearly fourfold, rising from virtually zero to over 4% of the population. This study delves into the dynamics of medium- and long-term labor market integration in Perú, combining data from the Venezuelan Population Residing in Perú Survey and the Peruvian National Household Survey. Our findings reveal that Venezuelan workers experience low returns on foreign postsecondary education and there is minimal relation between foreign work experience and monthly income. Importantly, these outcomes remain consistent irrespective of the time spent in the host country, indicating a gradual economic assimilation process. Lastly, our estimation demonstrates that if Venezuelans' human capital yielded returns equivalent to Peruvian human capital, the average income of Venezuelans would witness a substantial increase of 20%

Understanding the growth of the middle class in Bolivia

In this paper we aim to disentangle how sectoral economic growth affects the size of the middle class, using state-level data of Bolivia from 2000 to 2017 and breaking the three main economic activities into subsectors to attain more-specific results. Because the data from Bolivia are limited, we utilize a Bayesian hierarchical longitudinal model for small samples. We find that the commerce and services sectors have the biggest impact on the size of the middle class in Bolivia and that mining and agriculture have a similar though smaller effect. Our results also suggest that both formality and public social investment do have significant effects, albeit smaller ones

Unemployment Duration and Labor Mobility in Argentina: A Socioeconomic-Based Pre- and Post-Crisis Analysis

This paper evaluates the unemployment duration and labor mobility using data from the household surveys provided by the National Statistical office (INDEC) for the period 1998 to 2005. The paper aims to understand and explain the evolution and main determinants of labor mobility and unemployment duration, two of the main problems that labor markets present. Unemployment duration is studied in terms of welfare and its determinants by applying stochastic dominance and econometric techniques. Labor mobility is analyzed using conditional multinomial probit techniques in order to evaluate its evolution, the impact of a crisis and the recovery period, that Argentina faced over the period 1998-2005. We found that there was deterioration in welfare measured by unemployment duration especially during the crisis period. We found that human capital played a key role in the unemployment duration and labour mobility. Unemployment duration is higher for people with higher educational levels, which shows that less educated people have lower reservations wages; similar result was found for females and males. The labour mobility results show that more educated people enter easier to formal labor markets which changes during the crisis when their probability of entering to formal labor market reduces; this would suggest that more educated people tend to adjust their wages and push out of the market less educated people. The labour mobility patterns do not reflect inflexibility in labour markets. We conclude that the apparent duality – formal and informal - in the Argentinean labour market which seems to reflect differences in access to productive resources (human capital) outside labour market is the one that determines the integration into labour markets and later labour mobility of a big part of labour force

Efficiency in Poverty Reduction: A State-Level Analysis for Bolivia

A decline in poverty generally masks regional disparities that are due to varying efficiency among states. Using a generalized true random-effects model, we distinguish between persistent and transient inefficiencies on subnational efficiency to reduce poverty and its determinants in Bolivia. Our findings reveal that states differ in terms of efficiency, with some excelling and others facing challenges. Persistent inefficiency emerges as pivotal, emphasizing the need for long-term policy recalibration. We find that when the macroeconomic conditions in Bolivia allow for a 10 percent reduction in the poverty rate, states can achieve at most an 8.2 percent reduction, and on average, they reduce it by 7.3 percent. Efficiency correlates positively with the tertiary sector's size; relationships with the primary and secondary sectors depend on their size, showing positive associations only if these sectors are fairly large. Additionally, states with lower unemployment and informality tend to be more efficient, highlighting the labor market's crucial role