Where Economics Has Been Headed? Multiple Identities And Diversity In Economic Literature Evidence From Top Journals Over The Period 2000-2006 A First Note

This short paper presents some preliminary results of an ongoing research work focusing on richness and diversity of economic literature. The key idea is that each article published in an economic journal retains multiple identities. These multiple identities are captured through the use of Jel codes. A sample of ten top generalist journals has been selected. The relative abundance of all Jel categories has been computed for the period 2000-2006. Moreover, a degree of diversity has been proposed for both the sampled journals and the entire Econlit database.JEL; Econlit; Economic Journals; multiple identities; identity; relative abundance; diversity; evenness; richness

WHERE ECONOMICS HAS BEEN HEADED? MULTIPLE IDENTITIES AND DIVERSITY IN ECONOMIC LITERATURE EVIDENCE FROM TOP JOURNALS OVER THE PERIOD 2000-2006 A FIRST NOTE

This short paper presents some preliminary results of an ongoing research work focusing on richness and diversity of economic literature. The key idea is that each article published in an economic journal retains multiple identities. These multiple identities are captured through the use of JEL codes. A sample of top generalist journals has been selected. The relative abundance of all JEL categories has been computed for the period 2000-2006. Moreover, a degree of diversity has been proposed for both the sampled journals and the entire Econlit database.JEL, Econlit, Economic Journals, multiple identities, identity, relative abundance, diversity, evenness, richness

Employment and the “Investment Gap”: An Econometric Model of European Imbalances

We specify a VEC model based on six main macroeconomic imbalances to explain the Great European Recession, in Germany, France, Spain and Italy, from 1999 to 2013, estimating their long-term relationships. We focus on employment and unemployment as the main imbalances and identify consumption and investment slumps, prompted by fiscal consolidation, as the causes and current account rebalance and low inflation as the main consequences. Our main results are the following: a) public investment is the main policy instrument which can foster employment, prompting private investment and growth, exports can only partly balance a falling domestic demand; b) the unemployment-current account trade-off is a structural constraint to a lower unemployment level; c) mild deflation set in as a consequence of the consumption slump and oil price decline; d) breaks dates for consumption and inflation thresholds are estimated; and e) Germany successfully passed through the European recession by sharply increasing its exports and reshaping its economic role

Employment and the “Investment Gap”: An Econometric Model of European Imbalances

We specify a VEC model based on six main macroeconomic imbalances to explain the Great European Recession, in Germany, France, Spain and Italy, from 1999 to 2013, estimating their long-term relationships. We focus on employment and unemployment as the main imbalances and identify consumption and investment slumps, prompted by fiscal consolidation, as the causes and current account rebalance and low inflation as the main consequences. Our main results are the following: a) public investment is the main policy instrument which can foster employment, prompting private investment and growth, exports can only partly balance a falling domestic demand; b) the unemployment-current account trade-off is a structural constraint to a lower unemployment level; c) mild deflation set in as a consequence of the consumption slump and oil price decline; d) breaks dates for consumption and inflation thresholds are estimated; and e) Germany successfully passed through the European recession by sharply increasing its exports and reshaping its economic role

Why Italy's saving rate became (so) low?

The aim of this paper is to explain why a low and declining saving rate should be a problem in a world of free capital flows and increasing wealth. In Italy consumer households\u2019 saving have been the main driver of economic stability and growth, funding investments and public debt, and despite international turbulences Italy was acknowledged as a high saving country until the early 1990\u2019s. Ever since, however, households saving rate plunged, in spite of an increasing financial wealth, and our aim is to explain why: we suggest two main causes. The first is related to the economic policies implemented to deal with four major economic events, prompted by economic misalignments: a) the 1992\u2019s currency crisis, b) the run-up to the Euro, c) the 2006\u2019 turning point, preceding the 2008\u2019s crisis, and d) the 2009\u2019s public debt crisis and the following policy of fiscal consolidation. These four events were dealt with economic policies which overlooked the huge income and saving shifts from households to government and private sectors: rising tax burden, especially indirect taxes, freezing of nominal public expenditures and falling real wages were the main policy instruments, while a decreasing households\u2019 income and saving was a primary consequences. Households have been struggling to smooth their standard of life drawing on their saving and wealth, but the effort became all the more difficult as the saving rate was falling below a critical level, increasing the probability of negative saving and debt. Gross national saving turned less than aggregate investment, prompting an increasing borrowing from abroad and a corresponding negative current account. The second cause is structural and covers two crucial issues: the first is the deep economy impacts of a changing age structure, as a consequence of a sudden fertility drop. The second issue is related to the falling households size composition jointly with the rising share of quasi-fixed costs necessary for a decent life. We show how and why a well designed Welfare State could help to restore income stability and saving, tackling the widespread problem of changing age structure in most countries

Unbundling the Great European Recession (2009-2013): Unemployment, Consumption, Investment, Inflation and Current Account

The aim of the paper is to unbundle the main economic variables involved in the European Crisis and clarify their reciprocal relationship. The variable considered are: unemployment, inflation, consumptions, investments and current accounts. We use annual, quarterly and monthly data, until 2012, mid-2013 or an estimate of 2013 for the main European countries. The main results are the following: a) we show an emerging European economic divide, b) we detect a quasi-Okun relationship between investment and unemployment, c) we show the revival of the Phillips curve, especially in Germany, d) we test for the relationship between unemployment and the Government deficit, e) we show the existence of a relationship between unemployment and current account, f) we show how countries with high unemployment rate could bear the burden, g) we unbundle the unemployment-current account relationship, showing first the relationship between unemployment and final consumption, h) and then between final consumption, imports and corrent account, i) we show why a stable and growing inflation differential is not sustainable, but argue that internal devalution is not an effective policy, pushing inflation rates to a worrisome lower level and even outright deflation, l) we argue and show how to implement a more effective policy looking to the inflation differentials of specific products, looking to the case of Italy, m) we analyze the trade relationship between Germany and China, arguing that since the onset of the EMU and the successive membership of China to the WTO a European structural break occurred, with some European countries relying much more on exports rather than domestic demand. A more general issue of sustainability and replicability of the Germany’s export led growth model is raised

Employment and the “Investment Gap”: An Econometric Model of European Imbalances

We specify a VEC model based on six main macroeconomic imbalances to explain the Great European Recession, in Germany, France, Spain and Italy, from 1999 to 2013, estimating their long-term relationships. We focus on employment and unemployment as the main imbalances and identify consumption and investment slumps, prompted by fiscal consolidation, as the causes and current account rebalance and low inflation as the main consequences. Our main results are the following: a) public investment is the main policy instrument which can foster employment, prompting private investment and growth, exports can only partly balance a falling domestic demand; b) the unemployment-current account trade-off is a structural constraint to a lower unemployment level; c) mild deflation set in as a consequence of the consumption slump and oil price decline; d) breaks dates for consumption and inflation thresholds are estimated; and e) Germany successfully passed through the European recession by sharply increasing its exports and reshaping its economic role

Famiglia e pressione fiscale

We construct a detailed dataset, base on National Accounts, from 1991 to 2012, and the Bank of Italy survey on households in 2010, to measure the global tax burden on households consumer in Italy, distinguishing between direct, indirect taxes and social contributions. Global tax burden is estimated to 402 billions in 2012, compared with 1.567 billions of GDP, with a steadily increasing tax rate since 1991: we provide econometric estimates on the impact of each component on the household saving rate. A 1% increase of the global tax burden rate on consumer households decreases 2,9% their saving rate, which fell from 24% of disposable income in 1991 to 8% in 2012. We measure the economic impact of the decresing household saving rate on domestic investments and current account: over the period 2007-2012 only the financial sector recorded a significant increase in saving. We estimate the impact of direct and indirect taxes in 2010, in relation to households disposable income: the average direct tax rate increases from the third decile while the average indirect tax rate decrease from the 1st decile onward. The two tax rates crosses at the 5th decile. We compare two different type of households, single and double earners, at two different level of family income: the results allow a more careful analysis of horizontal equity and provide insights on the observed patterns of income inequality, family allowances and labor supply

Unbundling the Great European Recession (2009-2013): Unemployment, Consumption, Investment, Inflation and Current Account

The aim of the paper is to unbundle the main economic variables involved in the European Crisis and clarify their reciprocal relationship. The variable considered are: unemployment, inflation, consumptions, investments and current accounts. We use annual, quarterly and monthly data, until 2012, mid-2013 or an estimate of 2013 for the main European countries. The main results are the following: a) we show an emerging European economic divide, b) we detect a quasi-Okun relationship between investment and unemployment, c) we show the revival of the Phillips curve, especially in Germany, d) we test for the relationship between unemployment and the Government deficit, e) we show the existence of a relationship between unemployment and current account, f) we show how countries with high unemployment rate could bear the burden, g) we unbundle the unemployment-current account relationship, showing first the relationship between unemployment and final consumption, h) and then between final consumption, imports and corrent account, i) we show why a stable and growing inflation differential is not sustainable, but argue that internal devalution is not an effective policy, pushing inflation rates to a worrisome lower level and even outright deflation, l) we argue and show how to implement a more effective policy looking to the inflation differentials of specific products, looking to the case of Italy, m) we analyze the trade relationship between Germany and China, arguing that since the onset of the EMU and the successive membership of China to the WTO a European structural break occurred, with some European countries relying much more on exports rather than domestic demand. A more general issue of sustainability and replicability of the Germany’s export led growth model is raised