Reclassifying historical disasters: From single to multi-hazards

Data availability: Data will be made available on request.Multi-hazard events, characterized by the simultaneous, cascading, or cumulative occurrence of multiple natural hazards, pose a significant threat to human lives and assets. This is primarily due to the cumulative and cascading effects arising from the interplay of various natural hazards across space and time. However, their identification is challenging, which is attributable to the complex nature of natural hazard interactions and the limited availability of multi-hazard observations. This study presents an approach for identifying multi-hazard events during the past 123 years (1900–2023) using the EM-DAT global disaster database. Leveraging the ‘associated hazard’ information in EM-DAT, multi-hazard events are detected and assessed in relation to their frequency, impact on human lives and assets, and reporting trends. The interactions between various combinations of natural hazard pairs are explored, reclassifying them into four categories: preconditioned/triggering, multivariate, temporally compounding, and spatially compounding multi-hazard events. The results show, globally, approximately 19 % of the 16,535 disasters recorded in EM-DAT can be classified as multi-hazard events. However, the multi-hazard events recorded in EM-DAT are disproportionately responsible for nearly 59 % of the estimated global economic losses. Conversely, single hazard events resulted in higher fatalities compared to multi-hazard events. The largest proportion of multi-hazard events are associated with floods, storms, and earthquakes. Landslides emerge as the predominant secondary hazards within multi-hazard pairs, primarily triggered by floods, storms, and earthquakes, with the majority of multi-hazard events exhibiting preconditioned/triggering and multivariate characteristics. There is a higher prevalence of multi-hazard events in Asia and North America, whilst temporal overlaps of multiple hazards predominate in Europe. These results can be used to increase the integration of multi-hazard thinking in risk assessments, emergency management response plans and mitigation policies at both national and international levels.The authors acknowledge the European COST Action DAMOCLES (CA17109). CJW, MSGA, JD, MJR and ET were supported by the European Union's Horizon Europe ‘Multi-hazard and risk informed system for Enhanced local and regional Disaster risk management (MEDiate)’ project under grant agreement no. 10049641. CJW also acknowledges support from the NERC Global Partnerships Seedcorn Fund ‘EMERGE’ project though grant no. NE/W003775/1. PJW received support from the MYRIAD-EU project, which received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003276. MDM and JZ received support from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003469 (XAIDA). AMR was supported by the Helmholtz ‘Changing Earth’ program and acknowledges the Portuguese Science Foundation (FCT) through the project AMOTHEC (DRI/India/0098/2020)

Investigating the impact of mindfulness meditation training on working memory: A mathematical modeling approach

We investigated whether mindfulness training (MT) influences information processing in a working memory task with complex visual stimuli. Participants were tested before (T1) and after (T2) participation in an intensive one-month MT retreat, and their performance was compared with that of an age- and education-matched control group. Accuracy did not differ across groups at either time point. Response times were faster and significantly less variable in the MT versus the control group at T2. Since these results could be due to changes in mnemonic processes, speed–accuracy trade-off, or nondecisional factors (e.g., motor execution), we used a mathematical modeling approach to disentangle these factors. The EZ-diffusion model (Wagenmakers, van der Maas, & Grasman, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 14:(1), 3–22, 2007) suggested that MT leads to improved information quality and reduced response conservativeness, with no changes in nondecisional factors. The noisy exemplar model further suggested that the increase in information quality reflected a decrease in encoding noise and not an increase in forgetting. Thus, mathematical modeling may help clarify the mechanisms by which MT produces salutary effects on performance

Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a ‘storyline’ approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change

Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss: recent developments in observation and modeling

Surface processes currently dominate Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) mass loss. We review recent developments in the observation and modelling of GrIS surface mass balance (SMB), published after the July 2012 deadline for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). Since IPCC AR5 our understanding of GrIS SMB has further improved, but new observational and model studies have also revealed that temporal and spatial variability of many processes are still poorly quantified and understood, e.g. bio-albedo, the formation of ice lenses and their impact on lateral meltwater transport, heterogeneous vertical meltwater transport (‘piping’), the impact of atmospheric circulation changes and mixed-phase clouds on the surface energy balance and the magnitude of turbulent heat exchange over rough ice surfaces. As a result, these processes are only schematically or not at all included in models that are currently used to assess and predict future GrIS surface mass loss

Mouse TRIP13/PCH2 Is Required for Recombination and Normal Higher-Order Chromosome Structure during Meiosis

Accurate chromosome segregation during meiosis requires that homologous chromosomes pair and become physically connected so that they can orient properly on the meiosis I spindle. These connections are formed by homologous recombination closely integrated with the development of meiosis-specific, higher-order chromosome structures. The yeast Pch2 protein has emerged as an important factor with roles in both recombination and chromosome structure formation, but recent analysis suggested that TRIP13, the mouse Pch2 ortholog, is not required for the same processes. Using distinct Trip13 alleles with moderate and severe impairment of TRIP13 function, we report here that TRIP13 is required for proper synaptonemal complex formation, such that autosomal bivalents in Trip13-deficient meiocytes frequently displayed pericentric synaptic forks and other defects. In males, TRIP13 is required for efficient synapsis of the sex chromosomes and for sex body formation. Furthermore, the numbers of crossovers and chiasmata are reduced in the absence of TRIP13, and their distribution along the chromosomes is altered, suggesting a role for TRIP13 in aspects of crossover formation and/or control. Recombination defects are evident very early in meiotic prophase, soon after DSB formation. These findings provide evidence for evolutionarily conserved functions for TRIP13/Pch2 in both recombination and formation of higher order chromosome structures, and they support the hypothesis that TRIP13/Pch2 participates in coordinating these key aspects of meiotic chromosome behavior