Modelling marine trophic transfer of radiocarbon (14C) from a nuclear facility

Sellafield marine discharges of 14C are the largest contributor to the global collective dose from the nuclear fuel industry. As such, it is important to understand the fate of these discharges beyond the limitations and scope of empirical analytical investigations for this highly mobile radioactive contaminant. Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) is widely used to model anthropogenic impacts on ecosystems, such as fishing, although very few EwE studies have modelled the fate of bioavailable contaminants. This work presents, for the first time, a spatial-temporal 14C model utilising recent developments in EwE software to predict the ecological fate of anthropogenic 14C in the marine environment. The model predicted observed trends in 14C activities between different species and through time. It also provided evidence for the integration of Sellafield 14C in species at higher trophic levels through time

Representing variable habitat quality in a spatial food web model

Why are marine species where they are? The scientific community is faced with an urgent need to understand aquatic ecosystem dynamics in the context of global change. This requires development of scientific tools with the capability to predict how biodiversity, natural resources, and ecosystem services will change in response to stressors such as climate change and further expansion of fishing. Species distribution models and ecosystem models are two methodologies that are being developed to further this understanding. To date, these methodologies offer limited capabilities to work jointly to produce integrated assessments that take both food web dynamics and spatial-temporal environmental variability into account. We here present a new habitat capacity model as an implementation of the spatial-temporal model Ecospace of the Ecopath with Ecosim approach. The new model offers the ability to drive foraging capacity of species from the cumulative impacts of multiple physical, oceanographic, and environmental factors such as depth, bottom type, temperature, salinity, oxygen concentrations, and so on. We use a simulation modeling procedure to evaluate sampling characteristics of the new habitat capacity model. This development bridges the gap between envelope environmental models and classic ecosystem food web models, progressing toward the ability to predict changes in marine ecosystems under scenarios of global change and explicitly taking food web direct and indirect interactions into account

A century of fish biomass decline in the ocean

We performed a global assessment of how fish biomass has changed over the last 100 yr, applying a previously developed methodology using ecological modeling. Our assessment built on more than 200 food web models representing marine ecosystems throughout the world covering the period from 1880 to 2007. All models were constructed based on the same approach, and have been previously documented. We spatially and temporally distributed fish biomasses delivered by these models based on fish habitat preferences, ecology, and feeding conditions. From these distributions, we extracted over 68000 estimates of biomass (for predatory and prey fishes separately, including trophic level of 3.5 or higher, and trophic level between 2.0 and 3.0, respectively), and predicted spatial-temporal trends in fish biomass using multiple regression. Our results predicted that the biomass of predatory fish in the world oceans has declined by two-thirds over the last 100 yr. This decline is accelerating, with 54% occurring in the last 40 yr. Results also showed that the biomass of prey fish has increased over the last 100 yr, likely as a consequence of predation release. These findings allowed us to predict that there will be fish in the future ocean, but the composition of fish assemblages will be very different from current ones, with small prey fish dominating. Our results show that the trophic structure of marine ecosystems has changed at a global scale, in a manner consistent with fishing down marine food webs

Representing Variable Habitat Quality in a Spatial Food Web Model

Conference and workshops Ecopath 30 years – Modelling ecosystem dynamics: beyond boundaries with EwE, 4-14 November 2014, Barcelona, Spain.-- 2 pages, 1 figureWhy are marine species where they are? The scientific community is faced with an urgent need to understand aquatic ecosystem dynamics in the context of global change. This requires development of scientific tools with the capability to predict how biodiversity, natural resources, and ecosystem services will change in response to stressors such as climate change and further expansion of fishingMC was funded by the European Commission through the Marie Curie Career Integration Grant Fellowships to the BIOWEB project and the Spanish National Program Ramon y Cajal. This study forms a contribution to the Spanish Research project ECOTRANS. VC acknowledges support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaPeer Reviewe

A century of fish biomass decline in the ocean

We performed a global assessment of how fish biomass has changed over the last 100 yr, applying a previously developed methodology using ecological modeling. Our assessment built on more than 200 food web models representing marine ecosystems throughout the world covering the period from 1880 to 2007. All models were constructed based on the same approach, and have been previously documented. We spatially and temporally distributed fish biomasses delivered by these models based on fish habitat preferences, ecology, and feeding conditions. From these distributions, we extracted over 68000 estimates of biomass (for predatory and prey fishes separately, including trophic level of 3.5 or higher, and trophic level between 2.0 and 3.0, respectively), and predicted spatial-temporal trends in fish biomass using multiple regression. Our results predicted that the biomass of predatory fish in the world oceans has declined by two-thirds over the last 100 yr. This decline is accelerating, with 54% occurring in the last 40 yr. Results also showed that the biomass of prey fish has increased over the last 100 yr, likely as a consequence of predation release. These findings allowed us to predict that there will be fish in the future ocean, but the composition of fish assemblages will be very different from current ones, with small prey fish dominating. Our results show that the trophic structure of marine ecosystems has changed at a global scale, in a manner consistent with fishing down marine food webs

Advances in spatial-temporal food web modelling with Ecospace

Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research Open Science Conference (IMBER OSC 2014), Future Oceans, Research for marine sustainability: multiple stressors, drivers, challenges and solutions, 23-27 June 2014, Bergen, NorwayPeer Reviewe

Representing Variable Habitat Quality in a Spatial Food Web Model

16 pages, 8 figures, 1 tableWhy are marine species where they are? The scientific community is faced with an urgent need to understand aquatic ecosystem dynamics in the context of global change. This requires development of scientific tools with the capability to predict how biodiversity, natural resources, and ecosystem services will change in response to stressors such as climate change and further expansion of fishing. Species distribution models and ecosystem models are two methodologies that are being developed to further this understanding. To date, these methodologies offer limited capabilities to work jointly to produce integrated assessments that take both food web dynamics and spatial-temporal environmental variability into account. We here present a new habitat capacity model as an implementation of the spatial-temporal model Ecospace of the Ecopath with Ecosim approach. The new model offers the ability to drive foraging capacity of species from the cumulative impacts of multiple physical, oceanographic, and environmental factors such as depth, bottom type, temperature, salinity, oxygen concentrations, and so on. We use a simulation modeling procedure to evaluate sampling characteristics of the new habitat capacity model. This development bridges the gap between envelope environmental models and classic ecosystem food web models, progressing toward the ability to predict changes in marine ecosystems under scenarios of global change and explicitly taking food web direct and indirect interactions into account. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media New YorkMC was funded by the European Commission through the Marie Curie Career Integration Grant Fellowships to the BIOWEB project and the Spanish National Program Ramon y Cajal. This study forms a contribution to the Spanish Research project ECOTRANS. VC acknowledges support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaPeer Reviewe

The global ocean is an ecosystem : simulating marine life and fisheries

AimThere has been considerable effort allocated to understanding the impact of climate change on our physical environment, but comparatively little to how life on Earth and ecosystem services will be affected. Therefore, we have developed a spatial-temporal food web model of the global ocean, spanning from primary producers through to top predators and fisheries. Through this, we aim to evaluate how alternative management actions may impact the supply of seafood for future generations. LocationGlobal ocean. MethodsWe developed a modelling complex to initially predict the combined impact of environmental parameters and fisheries on global seafood production, and initially evaluated the model's performance through hindcasting. The modelling complex has a food web model as core, obtains environmental productivity from a biogeochemical model and assigns global fishing effort spatially. We tuned model parameters based on Markov chain random walk stock reduction analysis, fitting the model to historic catches. We evaluated the goodness-of-fit of the model to data for major functional groups, by spatial management units and globally. ResultsThis model is the most detailed ever constructed of global fisheries, and it was able to replicate broad patterns of historic fisheries catches with best agreement for the total catches and good agreement for species groups, with more variation at the regional level. Main conclusionsWe have developed a modelling complex that can be used for evaluating the combined impact of fisheries and climate change on upper-trophic level organisms in the global ocean, including invertebrates, fish and other large vertebrates. The model provides an important step that will allow global-scale evaluation of how alternative fisheries management measures can be used for mitigation of climate change