Improving Hurricane Power Outage Prediction Models Through the Inclusion of Local Environmental Factors

Tropical cyclones can significantly damage the electrical power system, so an accurate spatiotemporal forecast of outages prior to landfall can help utilities to optimize the power restoration process. The purpose of this article is to enhance the predictive accuracy of the Spatially Generalized Hurricane Outage Prediction Model (SGHOPM) developed by Guikema et al. (2014). In this version of the SGHOPM, we introduce a new two‐step prediction procedure and increase the number of predictor variables. The first model step predicts whether or not outages will occur in each location and the second step predicts the number of outages. The SGHOPM environmental variables of Guikema et al. (2014) were limited to the wind characteristics (speed and duration of strong winds) of the tropical cyclones. This version of the model adds elevation, land cover, soil, precipitation, and vegetation characteristics in each location. Our results demonstrate that the use of a new two‐step outage prediction model and the inclusion of these additional environmental variables increase the overall accuracy of the SGHOPM by approximately 17%.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147200/1/risa12728_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147200/2/risa12728.pd

Supersymmetric particle mass measurement with the boost-corrected contransverse mass

A modification to the contransverse mass (MCT) technique for measuring the masses of pair-produced semi-invisibly decaying heavy particles is proposed in which MCT is corrected for non-zero boosts of the centre-of-momentum (CoM) frame of the heavy states in the laboratory transverse plane. Lack of knowledge of the mass of the CoM frame prevents exact correction for this boost, however it is shown that a conservative correction can nevertheless be derived which always generates an MCT value which is less than or equal to the true value of MCT in the CoM frame. The new technique is demonstrated with case studies of mass measurement with fully leptonic ttbar events and with SUSY events possessing a similar final state.Comment: 33 pages, 33 .eps figures, JHEP3 styl

Effect of spirometry on intra-thoracic pressures

Due to the high intra-thoracic pressures associated with forced vital capacity manoeuvres, spirometry is contraindicated for vulnerable patients. However, the typical pressure response to spirometry has not been reported. Eight healthy, recreationally-active men performed spirometry while oesophageal pressure was recorded using a latex balloon-tipped catheter. Peak oesophageal pressure during inspiration was - 47 ± 9 cmH O (37 ± 10% of maximal inspiratory pressure), while peak oesophageal pressure during forced expiration was 102 ± 34 cmH O (75 ± 17% of maximal expiratory pressure). The deleterious consequences of spirometry might be associated with intra-thoracic pressures that approach maximal values during forced expiration

Relationship between Tibial conformation, cage size and advancement achieved in TTA procedure

Previous studies have suggested that there is a theoretical discrepancy between the cage size and the resultant tibial tuberosity advancement, with the cage size consistently providing less tibial tuberosity advancement than predicted. The purpose of this study was to test and quantify this in clinical cases. The hypothesis was that the advancement of the tibial tuberosity as measured by the widening of the proximal tibia at the tibial tuberosity level after a standard TTA, will be less than the cage sized used, with no particular cage size providing a relative smaller or higher under-advancement, and that the conformation of the proximal tibia will have an influence on the amount of advancement achieved

Light Sneutrino Dark Matter at the LHC

In supersymmetric (SUSY) models with Dirac neutrino masses, a weak-scale trilinear A-term that is not proportional to the small neutrino Yukawa couplings can induce a sizable mixing between left and right-handed sneutrinos. The lighter sneutrino mass eigenstate can hence become the lightest SUSY particle (LSP) and a viable dark matter candidate. In particular, it can be an excellent candidate for light dark matter with mass below ~10 GeV. Such a light mixed sneutrino LSP has a dramatic effect on SUSY signatures at the LHC, as charginos decay dominantly into the light sneutrino plus a charged lepton, and neutralinos decay invisibly to a neutrino plus a sneutrino. We perform a detailed study of the LHC potential to resolve the light sneutrino dark matter scenario by means of three representative benchmark points with different gluino and squark mass hierarchies. We study in particular the determination of the LSP (sneutrino) mass from cascade decays involving charginos, using the mT2 variable. Moreover, we address measurements of additional invisible sparticles, in our case the lightest neutralino, and the question of discrimination against the MSSM.Comment: 25 pages, 16 figure

Health on the Move (HOME) Study: Using a smartphone app to explore the health and wellbeing of migrants in the United Kingdom.

Background/Aim: We have a limited understanding of the broader determinants of health of international migrants and how these change over time since migration to the United Kingdom (UK). To address this knowledge gap, we aim to conduct a prospective cohort study with data acquisition via a smartphone application (app). In this pilot study, we aim to 1) determine the feasibility of the use of an app for data collection in international migrants, 2) optimise app engagement by quantifying the impact of specific design features on the completion rates of survey questionnaires and on study retention, 3) gather preliminary profile health status data, to begin to examine how risk factors for health are distributed among migrants. Methods: We will recruit 275 participants through a social media campaign and through third sector organisations that work with or support migrants in the UK. Following consent and registration, data will be collected via surveys. To optimise app engagement and study retention, we will quantify the impact of specific design features (i.e. the frequency of survey requests, the time of day for app notifications, the frequency of notifications, and the wording of notifications) via micro-randomised process evaluations. The primary outcome for this study is survey completion rates with numerator as the number of surveys completed and denominator as the total number of available surveys. Secondary outcomes are study retention rates and ratings of interest after app usage. Ethics and dissemination: We have obtained approval to use consented patient identifiable data from the University College London Ethics Committee. Improving engagement with the app and gathering preliminary health profile data will help us identify accessibility and usability issues and other barriers to app and study engagement prior to moving to a larger study

Measuring Invisible Particle Masses Using a Single Short Decay Chain

We consider the mass measurement at hadron colliders for a decay chain of two steps, which ends with a missing particle. Such a topology appears as a subprocess of signal events of many new physics models which contain a dark matter candidate. From the two visible particles coming from the decay chain, only one invariant mass combination can be formed and hence it is na\"ively expected that the masses of the three invisible particles in the decay chain cannot be determined from a single end point of the invariant mass distribution. We show that the event distribution in the $\log(E_{1T}/E_{2T})$ vs. invariant mass-squared plane, where $E_{1T}$, $E_{2T}$ are the transverse energies of the two visible particles, contains the information of all three invisible particle masses and allows them to be extracted individually. The experimental smearing and combinatorial issues pose challenges to the mass measurements. However, in many cases the three invisible particle masses in the decay chain can be determined with reasonable accuracies.Comment: 45 pages, 32 figure

The stransverse mass, MT2, in special cases

This document describes some special cases in which the stransverse mass, MT2, may be calculated by non-iterative algorithms. The most notable special case is that in which the visible particles and the hypothesised invisible particles are massless -- a situation relevant to its current usage in the Large Hadron Collider as a discovery variable, and a situation for which no analytic answer was previously known. We also derive an expression for MT2 in another set of new (though arguably less interesting) special cases in which the missing transverse momentum must point parallel or anti parallel to the visible momentum sum. In addition, we find new derivations for already known MT2 solutions in a manner that maintains manifest contralinear boost invariance throughout, providing new insights into old results. Along the way, we stumble across some unexpected results and make conjectures relating to geometric forms of M_eff and H_T and their relationship to MT2.Comment: 11 pages, no figures. v2 corrects minor typos. v3 corrects an incorrect statement in footnote 8 and inserts a missing term in eq (3.9). v4 and v5 correct minor typos spotted by reader

Hydrophilic and lipophilic radiopharmaceuticals as tracers in pharmaceutical development: In vitro – In vivo studies

BACKGROUND: Scintigraphic studies have been performed to assess the release, both in vitro and in vivo, of radiotracers from tablet formulations. Four different tracers with differing physicochemical characteristics have been evaluated to assess their suitability as models for drug delivery. METHODS: In-vitro disintegration and dissolution studies have been performed at pH 1, 4 and 7. In-vivo studies have been performed by scintigraphic imaging in healthy volunteers. Two hydrophilic tracers, ((99m)Tc-DTPA) and ((99m)Tc-MDP), and two lipophilic tracers, ((99m)Tc-ECD) and ((99m)Tc-MIBI), were used as drug models. RESULTS: Dissolution and disintegration profiles, differed depending on the drug model chosen. In vitro dissolution velocity constants indicated a probable retention of the radiotracer in the formulation. In vivo disintegration velocity constants showed important variability for each radiopharmaceutical. Pearson statistical test showed no correlation between in vitro drug release, and in vivo behaviour, for (99m)Tc-DTPA, (99m)Tc-ECD and (99m)Tc-MIBI. High correlation coefficients were found for (99m)Tc-MDP not only for in vitro dissolution and disintegration studies but also for in vivo scintigraphic studies. CONCLUSION: Scintigraphic studies have made a significant contribution to the development of drug delivery systems. It is essential, however, to choose the appropriate radiotracers as models of drug behaviour. This study has demonstrated significant differences in release patterns, depending on the model chosen. It is likely that each formulation would require the development of a specific model, rather than being able to use a generic drug model on the basis of its physicochemical characteristics