Analysis of trade in the Western Hemisphere utilizing a Gravity Model framework

With the recent proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) the tendency world-wide has been seemingly toward trade liberalization. This thesis is primarily concerned with the impacts RTAs have had in the Western Hemisphere regarding agricultural trade flows. Utilizing the framework of the Gravity Model, agricultural trade flows for 24 Western Hemisphere Nations were examined. In the course of the study it was expected that if RTAs were to have an effect it would be a positive Trade Creation Effect and a negative Trade Diversion Effect with positive effects for GDP of importer/exporter and population size of importer/exporter and a negative effect for that of distance. Of the five agreements examined (NAFTA, AC, MERCO, LAIA, and CACM), NAFTA and LAIA were the only positive (but non-significant) as to Trade Creation effects while AC, MERCO, and CACM were all negative (but non-significant). It was also interesting to note that of the agreements, NAFTA, had both a positive and significant (p=0.023) diversionary effect with the remaining agreements all being negative (as expected) and significant regarding trade diversion. It was also concluded that GDP (importer) and distance also had the expected signs (+,– respectively) with distance also being significant (p=0.0001). It was concluded that RTAs had a more pronounced effect on inter-industry trade versus intra-industry trade and that with the passage of more time, further analysis may substantiate the claim of a positive RTA effect on agricultural bilateral trade flows

STRUCTURAL APPROACH TO ANALYZE THE EFFECTS OF EXHCHANGE RATE ON IMPORT DEMAND

The purpose of this study is to determine the impact the exchange rate has on local prices and import demand.Exchange rate, Direct and indirect effects, Korean beef market, International Relations/Trade, F10, F11, F13,

Short- & Long-Run Effects of Seafood Imports on Domestic Price

Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

STRUCTURE AND CONDUCT OF THE WORLD RICE MARKET

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the world rice market through a Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) framework utilizing annual data from 1970 to 2007. Since World War Two, the world rice market has been very unstable, with rice prices experiencing volatile swings in both rice price and rice availability. Therefore, a SCP framework can provide crucial insight into the world rice market for policy makers. Also, this paper describes the effects of total production, export rice price, and real exchange rate for exporting countries on total export volume from an export supply model standpoint. On the basis of these results, it is evident that market power exists in the international rice market with respect to supply elasticity and an exporting country’s currency exchange rate greatly determines that country’s competitiveness as a net rice exporter relative to other rice producers.S-C-P paradigm, world rice market, concentration ratio, HHI, export rice price, exchange rate export supply function, Industrial Organization, International Relations/Trade,

AN EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION OF THE IMPORT DEMAND MODEL AND WELFARE EFFECTS: THE CASE OF RICE IMPORTING COUNTRIES

This analysis presents the determination of an import demand function for the world rice market using annual data from 1994 to 2007. In the specification and analysis of a world rice market import demand function, Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Instrumental Variables (IV) with Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) methods have been used. Social welfare effects have been obtained using consumer surplus and compensated variation for the top four rice importing countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia). Empirical results suggest that economic growth, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and importing countries’ population positively affect national income, thus, positively affecting rice consumption. Oil price has a strong effect on the domestic rice prices in importing countries. This paper also estimates the social effects arising from increased rice export prices and examines how consumer surplus is affected in major rice importing countries.rice export and import, consumer surplus, trade, import demand function, International Relations/Trade,

A Determination Of The Trade Impacts Of The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement

This paper seeks to determine the impact of the Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) on the flow of trade between Australia and the United States. To accomplish this, time series data were gathered for 10 SITC REV. 1(0-9) classifications for the years 1985-2009. These data were then sorted into three sub-classes (by direction of trade flow): 1) U.S. exports for that particular SITC class to Australia, 2) vice versa, and then 3) total trade volume for that particular sub-class between the two nations. These three classifications for each SITC class were then regressed against the explanatory variables of GDP (both Australian/U.S.), Population (both Australian/U.S.), the Relative Exchange Rate (AU$/US$), and a dummy trade agreement variable, AUSFTA. The results suggest that AUSFTA has been a greater trade creation catalyst for Australia than for the United States. In fact, for the United States, a greater level of trade diversion has been the result

The Impact of Microeconomic Structure Adjustment and Macroeconomic Variables under NAFTA on U.S. Agriculture

Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade,

IMPLICIT PRICE AND DEMAND IN OLIGOPOLISTIC COMPETITION: AN APPLICATION TO THE U.S. TROUT MARKET

This study provides an example of how implicit price and demand models can be developed and used for empirical analysis. In particular, empirical application of these models can quantify the impact of implicit economic variables representing preference, relative price, production efficiency, the degree of price sensitivity to quantity supplied, and substitutability on market price and demand for domestic and imported products. Furthermore, the simultaneous impact of these implicit economic variables on market price and demand can be quantified using these implicit price and demand models.International Relations/Trade,

A Determination of the Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Regional Trade Agreements in the Western Hemisphere

With the recent proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) the tendency world-wide has been seemingly toward trade liberalization. This thesis is primarily concerned with the impacts RTAs have had in the Western Hemisphere regarding agricultural trade flows. Utilizing the framework of the Gravity Model, agricultural trade flows for 24 Western Hemisphere Nations were examined. In the course of the study it was expected that if RTAs were to have an effect it would be a positive Trade Creation Effect and a negative Trade Diversion Effect with positive effects for GDP of importer/exporter and population size of importer/exporter and a negative effect for that of distance. Of the five agreements examined (NAFTA, AC, MERCO, LAIA, and CACM), NAFTA and LAIA were the only positive (but non-significant) as to Trade Creation effects while AC, MERCO, and CACM were all negative (but non-significant). It was also interesting to note that of the agreements, NAFTA, had both a positive and significant (p=0.023) diversionary effect with the remaining agreements all being negative (as expected) and significant regarding trade diversion. It was also concluded that GDP (importer) and distance also had the expected signs (+, respectively) with distance also being significant (p=0.0001). It was concluded that RTAs had a more pronounced effect on inter-industry trade versus intra-industry trade and that with the passage of more time, further analysis may substantiate the claim of a positive RTA effect on agricultural bilateral trade flows.International Relations/Trade,

IMPORT DEMAND SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTH KOREAN WINE MARKET WITH THE SOURCE DIFFERENTATED AIDS MODEL

Under the assumption of block substitutability and partial aggregation, a source differentiated AIDS model was used to estimate South Korean wine import demand. Empirical results indicate that South Korean wine consumers have a strong preference for high quality French wines. French wines are shown to be substitutes for wines from other countries in the South Korean wine market. Since the implementation of a free trade agreement between South Korea and Chile, Chilean wines have steadily increased their market share exhibiting strong price competitiveness in the South Korean wine market.wine, AIDS, block substitutability, import demand, Demand and Price Analysis,