La théorie des ZMO s'applique-t-elle aux pays en développement?

La théorie des zones monétaires optimales avait l’avantage de présenter le choix d’un régime de change en terme d’une analyse coûts-bénéfices. Elle s’est cantonnée à l’aspect asymétrique des chocs tout en évacuant l’aspect structurel. Cet article se propose de réexaminer la théorie et de démontrer l’importance du niveau de développement dans l’adoption d’une monnaie unique. Il sera démontré que l’analyse théorique supposait implicitement l’homogénéité structurelle des pays de la zone monétaire.zones monétaires optimales, unions monétaires, taux de change réel

Oil prices and the greenback: it takes two to tango

Although the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates has been investigated extensively in the literature, the results remain mixed. The aim of this article is to revisit this relationship allowing for nonlinear dynamics in the speed of adjustment to the equilibrium. This article argues that the existing literature does not consider oil as an asset class in portfolio allocation, and fails, therefore, to find evidence that exchange rate movements affect oil price dynamics. In other words, the role of oil prices in portfolio preferences is not exogenous to exchange rate determination as modelled in the literature, but rather endogenous. This article shows that during periods of high exchange rate volatility oil prices become highly affected by exchange rate movements of the dollar through a nonlinear smooth transition framework.

2-Day versus C-reactive protein guided antibiotherapy with levofloxacin in acute COPD exacerbation: A randomized controlled trial.

IntroductionDuration of antibiotic treatment in acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) is most commonly based on expert opinion. Biomarker guided strategy is increasingly recommended to limit unnecessary antibiotic use. We performed a randomized controlled study to evaluate the efficacy of 2-day versus C-reactive protein (CRP)-guided treatment with levofloxacin in patients with AECOPD.MethodsPatients with AECOPD were randomized to receive oral levofloxacin daily for 7 days unless the serum CRP level decreased by at least 50% from the baseline value or levofloxacin for two days; thereafter, oral placebo tablet was prescribed according to the CRP. The primary outcome measure was cure rate, and secondary outcome included need for additional antibiotics, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, exacerbation rates and exacerbation free interval (EFI) within one-year follow-up.ResultsIn intention to treat (ITT) analysis, cure rate was 76.1% (n = 118) and 79.3% (n = 123) respectively in 2-day and CRP-guided groups. In per protocol (PP) analysis, cure rate was 73% (n = 92) and 70.4% (n = 88) respectively in 2-day and CRP-guided groups. The difference between the two groups was not significant. The need for additional antibiotics and ICU admission rates were not significantly different between the two groups. One-year exacerbation rate was 27% (n = 42) in 2-day group versus 30.3% (n = 47) in CRP-guided group (p = 0.53); the EFI was 125 days (interquartile range, 100-151) versus 100 days (interquartile range, 78-123) in 2-day and CRP-guided groups respectively (p = 0.45). No difference in adverse effects was detected.ConclusionLevofloxacin once daily for 2 days had similar efficacy compared to CRP-guided in AECOPD. This short course treatment decreased antibiotic consumption which would improve patient compliance and reduce adverse effects