Wealth-flow forecasting

The Wealth Flow is part of an ABC type approach, and should suggest the wealth either generated (by income recognized in accounting, or not) or consumed (by recognized expenses or not). From the investor’s point of view this should be the next stage of analyze after the cash flow analyze, showing his net benefits generated by an investment. In a final stage the wealth flow should be a sum of shares value growth and dividends, however as the market is not always responding immediately and directly as it should, this should be seen as a potential growth expected from the investment, and the difference between the calculated stock value and the market value should be seen as growth potential (either positive or negative). In this paper we reveal the contents of the notion and we also present a case study.NPV, Cash Flow, Financial Analyze.

USING SPLINE FUNCTIONS FOR THE SUBSTANTIATION OF TAX POLICIES BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES

The paper aims to approach innovative financial instruments for the management of public resources. In the category of these innovative tools have been included polynomial spline functions used for budgetary sizing in the substantiating of fiscal and budgetary policies. In order to use polynomial spline functions there have been made a number of steps consisted in the establishment of nodes, the calculation of specific coefficients corresponding to the spline functions, development and determination of errors of approximation. Also in this paper was done extrapolation of series of property tax data using polynomial spline functions of order I. For spline impelementation were taken two series of data, one reffering to property tax as a resultative variable and the second one reffering to building tax, resulting a correlation indicator R=0,95. Moreover the calculation of spline functions are easy to solve and due to small errors of approximation have a great power of predictibility, much better than using ordinary least squares method. In order to realise the research there have been used as methods of research several steps, namely observation, series of data construction and processing the data with spline functions. The data construction is a daily series gathered from the budget account, reffering to building tax and property tax. The added value of this paper is given by the possibility of avoiding deficits by using spline functions as innovative instruments in the publlic finance, the original contribution is made by the average of splines resulted from the series of data. The research results lead to conclusion that the polynomial spline functions are recommended to form the elaboration of fiscal and budgetary policies, due to relatively small errors obtained in the extrapolation of economic processes and phenomena. Future research directions are taking in consideration to study the polynomial spline functions of second-order, third-order, Hermite spline and cubic splines of class C2 .fiscal policy, budget deficits, spline functions, budget justification, debt crisis

CHAOS OR TURBULENCE ON THE VOLATILITY OF PUBLIC REVENUES

In an intuitive attempt to define financial distress in the public sector, it can be represented by the turbulence over the normal rhythm of indicators’ evolution in the public revenues, due to the influence of exogenous factors coming from the real economy, the behavior of taxpayers as well as to other influencing factors. This way of defining financial distress makes it possible to measuring its composing elements, such as: the turbulence and the influence of exogenous factors. The application of financial distress tests for the public budgetary indicators and the notification of its existence can be of real use for the central and local governments, taxation policy.local government revenues, public taxation, financial distress

Approaching Economic Issues through Epidemiology–An Introduction to Business Epidemiology

In the tradition of transferring models and concepts from one science to another, our research explores the possibility of importing some concepts, definitions and approaches from human epidemiology to economic research, based on the extensive usage of medical terms and concepts in economy. The article explores some basic epidemiology concepts and their possible relevance to economic research, with the final goal to provide a new viewpoint over the economic phenomena, usable in economic crisis. The article introduces the concept of “business epidemiology” as a possible scientific approach to the economic crisis.epidemiology; business disease; company health; research methodology; financial contagion

SUBSTANTIATION OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY USING KALMAN FILTER

Global economic conditions have pushed many countries into the delicate situation of contracting foreign loans, leading overnight at alarming volumes of public debt. The need for control and relevant analysis for the sustainability of a country\'s public debt has led us to use the Kalman filter in predicting future values of the key indicators of public debt. The development of a mathematical model of analysis for public services and the budget deficit was necessary to objectively assess the level of the public debt sustainability.Knowing future values of the public debt or the future evolutions of the revenues for the operational budget, offers the posibility of a better handling of the operational expenditures and finally a better balance for the public budget deficit.Using the mathematical mechanism of Kalman filters implemented in Matlab programming language, we generated the estimated future values of the proposed model proposed and key indicators, the results confirming the fears of a low public debt sustainability for Romania.We predicted the future values for the debt service, the public external debt and the operational public revenues,expenditures and deficit, and compared them, to obtain an image of the future evolution and position of the sustainability of the public debt. The work in this paper is an innovative one for the public science sector, and the results obtained are promising for future researches. The values estimated by the Kalman filter are an orientation for the future public policies, and indicate a rather stable but negative evolution for the public debt service. The sustainability of the public debt depends on the decisions taken for the correction of the estimated values, in changing the negative evolution of the budgetary indicators into a positive one.Taking all this into consideration we will conclude that the mathematical mecanism of the Kalman filters offers valuable informations for Government and future research should be oriented to develop it's returned results.Kalman filter, debt, sustainability, deficit, prediction

INVESTIGATION OF THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF ROMANIAN INTEGRATION IN EUROPEAN UNION

The aim of this study is to investigate the costs and benefits of Romanian integration in European Union. Starting from this ideea, the paper presents the political and economic factors that conduct to the integration even that the economic growth is undeEuropean Union, integration costs, integration benefits

THE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE OF PUBLIC ENTITIES IN ROMANIA

The paper aims to examine the application of principles of corporate governance fortransparency and efficiency of decision and control at the level of local public entities. We intend toargue the importance of these principles of governance in the public entities to determineresponsibility and management decision-making bodies in achieving the objectives in terms ofreliability of financial reporting, effectiveness and efficiency of operations, compliance withapplicable legislation.corporate governance, public efficiency, public governance.