Notes from the Stockpile seminar

A seminar was held to review some of the models used by the armed services for planning weapon procurement. Most of the effort was spent on the Navy's NNOR and the Air Force's Sabre Mix Methodologies. Even in an emergency situation, it is difficult to speed up the production rate of sophisticated, modern weapons. The time constant for increasing production rate for many weapons seems to be on the order of a year, whereas major wars are sometimes imagined to last for only several months. Given these supposed facts, the following question would seem to be crucial for the yearly POM process: How should a fixed budget be spent augmenting the current stockpile of weapons so as to maximize the effectiveness of the resulting stockpile? Operations Research techniques could play an important role in answering the question, since several favorable preconditions exist: The question must be asked repetitively, Combat modelling must inevitably be involved in assessing effectiveness, Lots of data are available that must be taken into account, and The problem of determining the best stockpile can be interpreted as one of mathematical optimization. For example, shows for a typical weapon the comparison between inventory and the Navy's 'programming objective profile' as determined by the NNOR (Non-Nuclear Ordnance Requirements). There is clearly a large difference between the two, particularly if the gap is compared to the yearly stockpile increment. One way of resolving the discrepancy between budgets and requirements would be to reassess requirements (possibly also budgets) until feasibility is finally achievedNaval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.http://archive.org/details/notesfromstockpi00bog

Budget Allocation and Enlistment Prediction Models of Richard C. Morey: A Brief Review

Working Paper SeriesReviewed is "Budget Allocation and Enlistment Prediction Models for the Navy's Recruiting Conmand", Richard C. Morey, Principal Investigator; May 1979 and October 1979; The center of Applied Business Research, Graduate School of Business, Duke University, Durham, NC. The subject reports were prepared to summarize work performed for the Office of Naval Research and the Naval Recruiting Command

Statistical models for estimating overhead costs

Five years of quarterly overhead costs at two major defense aircraft manufacturers were categorized according to the types of costs incurred. These categories of overhead costs were then modeled via regression analysis using production and operating data from the two contractors as independent variables. Adjustment for quarterly autocorrelation revealed excellent structural and predictive models of total overhead and labor-related overhead costs. (Author)sponsored by the Naval Office of Acquisition Research under work order N000378WR35163 at the request of the Naval Air Systems Command.http://archive.org/details/statisticalmodel00bogeApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Competition in defense acquisition: Myths and facts

The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1080/0743017890840540

MQ-25A Manned/Unmanned Teaming

NPS NRP Executive SummaryManned aircraft coordinate with tankers locally through voice, hand signals and lighting. MQ-25A coordination is through a remote operator, typically through beyond line of sight communications. Degradation or loss of that communications link would inhibit refueling capability. Human machine teaming may be a key enabler for increased reliability and resilience in the unmanned tanking mission. Further, advanced human machine teaming capability may enable force multiplier missions, increasing war fighting capabilities of the carrier air wing. Co-Active Design and interdependence analysis are two proven methods for identifying human machine teaming requirements that enable resilience, reliability, and identify potential pitfalls. This year's research effort focuses on enhancing mission capabilities by exploring two key areas: enhanced ISR capabilities, and operations in non-permissive communications and position, navigation, and timing environments.ASN(RDA) - Research, Development, and AcquisitionThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

MQ-25A Manned/Unmanned Teaming

NPS NRP Project PosterManned aircraft coordinate with tankers locally through voice, hand signals and lighting. MQ-25A coordination is through a remote operator, typically through beyond line of sight communications. Degradation or loss of that communications link would inhibit refueling capability. Human machine teaming may be a key enabler for increased reliability and resilience in the unmanned tanking mission. Further, advanced human machine teaming capability may enable force multiplier missions, increasing war fighting capabilities of the carrier air wing. Co-Active Design and interdependence analysis are two proven methods for identifying human machine teaming requirements that enable resilience, reliability, and identify potential pitfalls. This year's research effort focuses on enhancing mission capabilities by exploring two key areas: enhanced ISR capabilities, and operations in non-permissive communications and position, navigation, and timing environments.ASN(RDA) - Research, Development, and AcquisitionThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

A Technical Roadmap for Autonomy for Marine Future Vertical Lift (FVL)

NPS NRP Executive SummaryThe Marines desire to leverage automation in their next Future Vertical Lift (FVL) platform, meaning they must define the human-FVL teaming interactions. The FVL will operate in a wide spectrum of flight regimes, from remotely piloted, to fully manned, to mostly automatic, and in combinations of the above. This broadened operating approach necessitates that understanding the various human machine teaming interdependent interactions across this diverse operating spectrum be completely delineated. NPS is well positioned to assist. Three approaches are considered: Use Co-active Design, since it is a rigorous engineering process that captures these interactions and interdependencies, develops workflows, and identifies resilient paths for human machine teaming using interdependence analysis (IA); define an FVL 'Living Lab' (LL) that the FVL program management office (PMO) could use to explore technical and concept tradeoffs; establish the cost/benefit relationships of these approaches; and design approaches to developing trust within this operating framework. The topic sponsor desires these techniques so as to create a PMO that decreases the speed at which technical tradeoffs can be identified and made.HQMC Aviation (AVN)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

A Technical Roadmap for Autonomy for Marine Future Vertical Lift (FVL)

NPS NRP Project PosterThe Marines desire to leverage automation in their next Future Vertical Lift (FVL) platform, meaning they must define the human-FVL teaming interactions. The FVL will operate in a wide spectrum of flight regimes, from remotely piloted, to fully manned, to mostly automatic, and in combinations of the above. This broadened operating approach necessitates that understanding the various human machine teaming interdependent interactions across this diverse operating spectrum be completely delineated. NPS is well positioned to assist. Three approaches are considered: Use Co-active Design, since it is a rigorous engineering process that captures these interactions and interdependencies, develops workflows, and identifies resilient paths for human machine teaming using interdependence analysis (IA); define an FVL 'Living Lab' (LL) that the FVL program management office (PMO) could use to explore technical and concept tradeoffs; establish the cost/benefit relationships of these approaches; and design approaches to developing trust within this operating framework. The topic sponsor desires these techniques so as to create a PMO that decreases the speed at which technical tradeoffs can be identified and made.HQMC Aviation (AVN)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Evidence of a resonant structure in the e+e−→π+D0D∗−e^+e^-\to \pi^+D^0D^{*-} cross section between 4.05 and 4.60 GeV

The cross section of the process $e^+e^-\to \pi^+D^0D^{*-}$ for center-of-mass energies from 4.05 to 4.60~GeV is measured precisely using data samples collected with the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII storage ring. Two enhancements are clearly visible in the cross section around 4.23 and 4.40~GeV. Using several models to describe the dressed cross section yields stable parameters for the first enhancement, which has a mass of 4228.6 \pm 4.1 \pm 6.3 \un{MeV}/c^2 and a width of 77.0 \pm 6.8 \pm 6.3 \un{MeV}, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second ones are systematic. Our resonant mass is consistent with previous observations of the $Y(4220)$ state and the theoretical prediction of a $D\bar{D}_1(2420)$ molecule. This result is the first observation of $Y(4220)$ associated with an open-charm final state. Fits with three resonance functions with additional $Y(4260)$, $Y(4320)$, $Y(4360)$, $\psi(4415)$, or a new resonance, do not show significant contributions from either of these resonances. The second enhancement is not from a single known resonance. It could contain contributions from $\psi(4415)$ and other resonances, and a detailed amplitude analysis is required to better understand this enhancement

Observation of Ds+→pnˉD^+_s\rightarrow p\bar{n} and confirmation of its large branching fraction

The baryonic decay $D^+_s\rightarrow p\bar{n}$ is observed, and the corresponding branching fraction is measured to be $(1.21\pm0.10\pm0.05)\times10^{-3}$, where the first uncertainty is statistical and second systematic. The data sample used in this analysis was collected with the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII $e^+e^-$ double-ring collider with a center-of-mass energy of 4.178~GeV and an integrated luminosity of 3.19~fb$^{-1}$. The result confirms the previous measurement by the CLEO Collaboration and is of greatly improved precision, which may deepen our understanding of the dynamical enhancement of the W-annihilation topology in the charmed meson decays