Export Performance in South Pacific Countries Comparatively Well Endowed with Natural Resources: Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, 1960 to 1999

Stochastic dominance analysis was used to assess export performance in two Melanesian countries of similar size and structure that are comparatively well endowed with natural resources: Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. Total export values increased over the study period in Solomon Islands, brought about by a significant increase in the value of non-agricultural resource exports. Agricultural exports showed small increases but the average annual rate of growth was only 1.3 per cent for agricultural export values compared with 10.7 per cent in non-agricultural export values. The record of commodity export performance in Vanuatu over the study period was less impressive, with a small average annual decline in total export values. This decline was caused by agricultural export values falling by 1.5 per cent per annum although it showed signs of abating in the final decade of the study period. Results suggest that both countries are capable of achieving sustainable economic development, given their generous natural resource endowments, but many factors may militate against this achievement, as witnessed by the current political unrest and crisis in public finance in Solomon Islands.export performance, stochastic dominance, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, International Relations/Trade,

Export Performance in Papua New Guinea, 1960 to 1999

Stochastic dominance analysis was used to assess export performance in Papua New Guinea from 1960 to 1999. A country with abundant natural resources, Papua New Guinea was able to experience significant growth in total export values throughout the final four decades of the 20th century, with each succeeding decade stochastically dominating the previous one. The expansion of mineral and energy exports from the early 1970s was the major source of this growth. The powerful influence of an expanding minerals and energy sector must nevertheless be of concern in that this sector and other non-agricultural resource sectors comprise mainly extractive or quasi-extractive industries given the production practices that currently exist. Little progress has been made in diversifying into secondary and tertiary exports. Furthermore, prospects for the mineral and energy sectors do not look bright, with a collapse of exploration and development in the mining industry (Duncan 2001:11). Growth also took place in agricultural export values during the study period. However, it was more modest than the growth in resource based non-agricultural exports and confined mainly to the 1960s and 1970s.export performance, Papua New Guinea, stochastic dominance, International Relations/Trade,

Export Performance in South Pacific Countries Marginally Endowed with Natural Resources: Samoa and Tonga, 1960 to 1999

Stochastic dominance analysis was used to assess export performance in two Polynesian countries of similar size and structure that are both marginally endowed with natural resources: Samoa and Tonga. In general, total and agricultural export values declined over the study period in both countries, brought about by a significant decline in the value of agricultural exports while non- agricultural exports showed small increases. The one exception to this trend was in Tonga during the 1990s when squash exports brought about a revival in agricultural export values. Results suggest that these countries are likely to struggle to achieve sustainable economic development, given their limited natural resource endowments. The fisheries sector holds the key to whether their economies can continue to be productive by exploiting further the fishery resources within their EEZs to develop domestic fishing industries.export performance, stochastic dominance, Samoa, Tonga, International Relations/Trade,

Export Performance in Fiji, 1960 to 1999

Stochastic dominance analysis was used to assess export performance in Fiji from 1960 to 1999. A country with reasonably abundant resources, Fiji has made effective use of its quite substantial resources to increase total export values significantly over the study period, with an average rate of growth of 2.6 per cent per annum. Non-agricultural exports were the source of this growth, increasing annually by 7.3 per cent. Growth was particularly strong from the late 1980s despite the loss of skills and capital flight in the wake of the May 1987 coup and military takeover. The economy clearly benefited from a policy switch from a trade protectionist policy with a high degree of government intervention to an export-oriented strategy based on private sector-led development. The values of total exports in the 1990s were dominant overall. The values in the 1980s dominated values in the 1960s and 1970s as a result of the expansion of non-agricultural exports. The 1970s stochastically dominated the 1960s clearly and the 1980s dominated the 1970s for non-agricultural exports. Non-agricultural export values continued to expand in the final decade of the study period, rendering overall stochastic dominance of the 1990s over the 1980s and preceding decades. The dominant decade for agricultural exports was the 1970s. However, the increase in agricultural export values during the 1970s was offset by a decline in agricultural export values in the final two decades of the study period such that there was no trend in agricultural export values over the whole study period.export performance, Fiji, stochastic dominance, International Relations/Trade,

An Assessment of Commodity Export Performance in South Pacific Countries, 1960 to 1999

We examine export performance and the factors influencing export growth in ten South Pacific countries, concentrating on the comparative influences of geographic endowments, policies and institutions. The countries under study are Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Only Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands experienced a positive trend in total commodity export values. Agricultural export values grew significantly only in Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands. Most countries experienced growth in non-agricultural commodity export values, albeit from a low base. As a general rule, export performance was superior for countries with richer endowments of natural resources. Geographic factors associated with small size impeded export performance in small South Pacific countries, in particular. Evidence suggests that export performance was not improved by good policies unless those policies were properly implemented. To be satisfactorily implemented, they required soundly operating and effective institutions. Unfortunately, institutional performance deteriorated over the study period and was likely to have adversely affected export performance, particularly in the primary industries.International Relations/Trade,

Export Performance in South Pacific Countries With Inadequate Endowments of Natural Resources: Cook Islands, Kiribati, Niue and Tuvalu, 1960 to 1999

Stochastic dominance analysis was used to assess export performance in four South Pacific island countries with very limited natural resources: Cook Islands; Kiribati; Niue; and Tuvalu. Total export values declined significantly over the study period in all four countries, brought about by a significant decline in the value of agricultural exports while non-agricultural exports showed only small increases. Results seem to confirm the view that these countries have insufficient natural resource endowments for sustainable economic development without outside support. The fisheries sector holds the key to whether the economies under study (bar Niue) can transform themselves into productive ones by exploiting further the fishery resources within their EEZs to develop domestic fishing industries.export performance, Cook Islands, Kiribati, Niue, stochastic dominance, Tuvalu, International Relations/Trade,

Linking changes in species composition and biomass in a globally distributed grassland experiment

Global change drivers, such as anthropogenic nutrient inputs, are increasing globally. Nutrient deposition simultaneously alters plant biodiversity, species composition and ecosystem processes like aboveground biomass production. These changes are underpinned by species extinction, colonisation and shifting relative abundance. Here, we use the Price equation to quantify and link the contributions of species that are lost, gained or that persist to change in aboveground biomass in 59 experimental grassland sites. Under ambient (control) conditions, compositional and biomass turnover was high, and losses (i.e. local extinctions) were balanced by gains (i.e. colonisation). Under fertilisation, the decline in species richness resulted from increased species loss and decreases in species gained. Biomass increase under fertilisation resulted mostly from species that persist and to a lesser extent from species gained. Drivers of ecological change can interact relatively independently with diversity, composition and ecosystem processes and functions such as aboveground biomass due to the individual contributions of species lost, gained or persisting

Export Performance in Fiji, 1960 to 1999

Stochastic dominance analysis was used to assess export performance in Fiji from 1960 to 1999. A country with reasonably abundant resources, Fiji has made effective use of its quite substantial resources to increase total export values significantly over the study period, with an average rate of growth of 2.6 per cent per annum. Non-agricultural exports were the source of this growth, increasing annually by 7.3 per cent. Growth was particularly strong from the late 1980s despite the loss of skills and capital flight in the wake of the May 1987 coup and military takeover. The economy clearly benefited from a policy switch from a trade protectionist policy with a high degree of government intervention to an export-oriented strategy based on private sector-led development. The values of total exports in the 1990s were dominant overall. The values in the 1980s dominated values in the 1960s and 1970s as a result of the expansion of non-agricultural exports. The 1970s stochastically dominated the 1960s clearly and the 1980s dominated the 1970s for non-agricultural exports. Non-agricultural export values continued to expand in the final decade of the study period, rendering overall stochastic dominance of the 1990s over the 1980s and preceding decades. The dominant decade for agricultural exports was the 1970s. However, the increase in agricultural export values during the 1970s was offset by a decline in agricultural export values in the final two decades of the study period such that there was no trend in agricultural export values over the whole study period

Export Performance in South Pacific Countries With Inadequate Endowments of Natural Resources: Cook Islands, Kiribati, Niue and Tuvalu, 1960 to 1999

Stochastic dominance analysis was used to assess export performance in four South Pacific island countries with very limited natural resources: Cook Islands; Kiribati; Niue; and Tuvalu. Total export values declined significantly over the study period in all four countries, brought about by a significant decline in the value of agricultural exports while non-agricultural exports showed only small increases. Results seem to confirm the view that these countries have insufficient natural resource endowments for sustainable economic development without outside support. The fisheries sector holds the key to whether the economies under study (bar Niue) can transform themselves into productive ones by exploiting further the fishery resources within their EEZs to develop domestic fishing industries

Export Performance in South Pacific Countries Marginally Endowed with Natural Resources: Samoa and Tonga, 1960 to 1999

Stochastic dominance analysis was used to assess export performance in two Polynesian countries of similar size and structure that are both marginally endowed with natural resources: Samoa and Tonga. In general, total and agricultural export values declined over the study period in both countries, brought about by a significant decline in the value of agricultural exports while non- agricultural exports showed small increases. The one exception to this trend was in Tonga during the 1990s when squash exports brought about a revival in agricultural export values. Results suggest that these countries are likely to struggle to achieve sustainable economic development, given their limited natural resource endowments. The fisheries sector holds the key to whether their economies can continue to be productive by exploiting further the fishery resources within their EEZs to develop domestic fishing industries