A refutation of determinism.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Humanities. Thesis. 1965. B.S.B.S

Risky Curves: From Unobservable Utility to Observable Opportunity Sets

Most theories of risky choice postulate that a decision maker maximizes the expectationof a Bernoulli (or utility or similar) function. We tour 60 years of empirical search and concludethat no such functions have yet been found that are useful for out-of-sample prediction. Nor dowe find practical applications of Bernoulli functions in major risk-based industries such asfinance, insurance and gambling. We sketch an alternative approach to modeling risky choicethat focuses on potentially observable opportunities rather than on unobservable Bernoullifunctions

The Political Economy of Agricultural and Food Policies: Recent Contributions, New Insights, and Areas for Further Research

This article reviews innovative research that has emerged in recent years, both in the general economics literature and as applied to agricultural and food policies. There have been important innovations and new insights in these fields, particularly regarding the micro-foundations of political decision-making, the impact of political institutions and ideology, and the role of the media. Data have also improved substantially. However, there are still important gaps in our understanding. Further research should focus on capturing interactions between explanatory variables, more refined measurement of (political) institutions and reforms, the effects of international agreements, broader representation of agents, more explicit modeling of crises, discontinuous effects, and the interaction of multiple policies. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.