Global climatologies of Eulerian and Lagrangian flow features based on ERA-Interim

This paper introduces a newly compiled set of feature-based climatologies identified from ERA-Interim (1979–2014). Two categories of flow features are considered: (i) Eulerian climatologies of jet streams, tropopause folds, surface fronts, cyclones and anticyclones, blocks, and potential vorticity streamers and cutoffs and (ii) Lagrangian climatologies, based on a large ensemble of air parcel trajectories, of stratosphere–troposphere exchange, warm conveyor belts, and tropical moisture exports. Monthly means of these feature climatologies are openly available at the ETH Zürich web page (http://eraiclim.ethz.ch) and are annually updated. Datasets at higher resolution can be obtained from the authors on request. These feature climatologies allow studying the frequency, variability, and trend of atmospheric phenomena and their interrelationships across temporal scales. To illustrate the potential of this dataset, boreal winter climatologies of selected features are presented and, as a first application, the very unusual Northern Hemispheric winter of 2009/10 is identified as the season when most of the considered features show maximum deviations from climatology. The second application considers dry winters in the western United States and reveals fairly localized anomalies in the eastern North Pacific of enhanced blocking and surface anticyclones and reduced cyclones

The extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica "heat" wave. Part I: observations and meteorological drivers

peer reviewe

The extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica "heat" wave. Part II: impacts on the Antarctic ice sheet

peer reviewe

The storm-track suppression over the western North Pacific from a cyclone life-cycle perspective

ISSN:2698-4016ISSN:2698-400

Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations - Part 2: Role of potential vorticity production for cyclone intensification

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are strongly ascending, cloud- and precipitation-forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones. The intense cloud-diabatic processes produce low-level cyclonic potential vorticity (PV) along the ascending airstreams, which often contribute to the intensification of the associated cyclone. This study investigates how climate change affects the cyclones' WCB strength and the importance of WCB-related diabatic PV production for cyclone intensification, based on present-day (1990-1999) and future (2091-2100) climate simulations of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE). In each period, a large number of cyclones and their associated WCB trajectories have been identified in both hemispheres during the winter season. WCB trajectories are identified as strongly ascending air parcels that rise at least 600 hPa in 48 h. Compared to ERA-Interim reanalyses, the present-day climate simulations are able to capture the cyclone structure and the associated WCBs reasonably well, which gives confidence in future projections with CESM-LE. However, the amplitude of the diabatically produced low-level PV anomaly in the cyclone centre is underestimated in the climate simulations, most likely because of reduced vertical resolution compared to ERA-Interim. The comparison of the simulations for the two climates reveals an increase in the WCB strength and the cyclone intensification rate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in the future climate. The WCB strength also increases in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) but to a smaller degree, and the cyclone intensification rate is not projected to change considerably. Hence, in the two hemispheres cyclone intensification responds differently to an increase in WCB strength. Cyclone deepening correlates positively with the intensity of the associated WCB, with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.68 (0.66) in the NH in the present-day (future) simulations and a coefficient of 0.51 (0.55) in the SH. The number of explosive cyclones with strong WCBs, referred to as C1 cyclones, is projected to increase in both hemispheres, while the number of explosive cyclones with weak WCBs (C3 cyclones) is projected to decrease. A composite analysis reveals that in the future climate C1 cyclones will be associated with even stronger WCBs, more WCB-related diabatic PV production, the formation of a more intense PV tower, and an increase in precipitation. They will become warmer, moister, and slightly more intense. The findings indicate that (i) latent heating associated with WCBs (as identified with our method) will increase, (ii) WCB-related PV production will be even more important for explosive cyclone intensification than in the present-day climate, and (iii) the interplay between dry and moist dynamics is crucial to understand how climate change affects cyclone intensification. Copyright:ISSN:2698-4016ISSN:2698-400

The Role of Warm Conveyor Belts for the Intensification of Extratropical Cyclones in Northern Hemisphere Winter

ISSN:0022-4928ISSN:1520-046

Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations - Part 1: Climatology and impacts

This study investigates how warm conveyor belts (WCBs) will change in a future climate. WCBs are strongly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones that are responsible for most of their precipitation. In conjunction with the cloud formation, latent heat is released, which has an impact on the potential vorticity distribution and therefore on the atmospheric circulation in the middle and upper troposphere. Because of these and other impacts of WCBs, it is of great importance to investigate changes in their frequencies, regions of occurrence, and physical characteristics in a warmer climate. To this aim, future climate simulations (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 - RCP8.5 - scenario; 2091-2100) are performed with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and compared to present-day climate (1991-1999). Trajectories are calculated based on 6-hourly 3D wind fields, and WCBs are identified as trajectories that ascend at least 600 hPa in 2 d. WCBs are represented reasonably well in terms of location and occurrence frequency compared to WCBs in the ERA-Interim reanalyses. In a future climate, WCB inflow regions in the North Pacific are systematically shifted northward in winter, which is in agreement with the northward shift of the storm track in this region. In the North Atlantic, increased frequencies are discernible in the southwest and there is a decrease to the south of Iceland. Finally, in the Southern Hemisphere, WCB frequencies increase in the South Atlantic in both seasons and to the east of South Africa and the Indian Ocean in June-July-August (JJA). These changes are partly consistent with corresponding changes in the occurrence frequencies of extratropical cyclones, i.e. the driving weather systems of WCBs. Changes are also found in the WCB characteristics, which have implications for WCB impacts in a future climate. The increase in inflow moisture in the different regions and seasons - ∼23 %-33 % (∼14 %-20 %) in winter (summer) - leads to (i) an increase in WCB-related precipitation - ∼13 %-23 % (∼7 %-28 %) in winter (summer) - especially in the upper percentiles and thus a possible increase in extreme precipitation related to WCBs, (ii) a strong increase in diabatic heating - ∼20 %-27 % (∼17 %-33 %) in winter (summer) - in the mid-troposphere, and (iii) a higher outflow level - ∼10 K (∼10-16 K) in winter (summer) - which favours WCBs more strongly interacting with the upper-level Rossby waveguide. In summary, by investigating a distinct weather system, the WCB, and how it changes in its occurrence frequency and characteristics in a future climate, this study provides new insights into the dynamics and impacts of climate change in the extratropical storm track regions.ISSN:2698-4016ISSN:2698-400

Vertical cloud structure of warm conveyor belts – a comparison and evaluation of ERA5 reanalysis, CloudSat and CALIPSO data

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important cyclone-related airstreams that are responsible for most of the cloud and precipitation formation in the extratropics. They can also substantially influence the dynamics of cyclones and the upper-level flow. So far, most of the knowledge about WCBs is based on model data from analyses, reanalyses and forecast data with only a few observational studies available. The aim of this work is to gain a detailed observational perspective on the vertical cloud and precipitation structure of WCBs during their inflow, ascent and outflow and to evaluate their representation in the new ERA5 reanalysis dataset. To this end, satellite observations from the CloudSat radar and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) lidar are combined with an ERA5-based WCB climatology for nine Northern Hemisphere winters. Based on a case study and a composite analysis, the main findings can be summarized as follows. (i) WCB air masses are part of deep, strongly precipitating clouds, with cloud-top heights at 9–10 km during their ascent and an about 2–3 km deep layer with supercooled liquid water co-existing with ice above the melting layer. The maximum surface precipitation occurs when the WCB is at about 2–4 km height. (ii) Convective clouds can be observed above the inflow and during the ascent. (iii) At upper levels, the WCB outflow is typically located near the top of a 3 km deep cirrus layer. (iv) There is a large variability between WCBs in terms of cloud structure, peak reflectivity and associated surface precipitation. (v) The WCB trajectories with the highest radar reflectivities are mainly located over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and – apart from the inflow – they occur at relatively low latitudes. They are associated with particularly deep and strongly precipitating clouds that occur not only during the ascent but also in the inflow and outflow regions. (vi) ERA5 represents the WCB clouds remarkably well in terms of position, thermodynamic phase and frozen hydrometeor distribution, although it underestimates the high ice and snow values in the mixed-phase clouds near the melting layer. (vii) In the lower troposphere, high potential vorticity is diabatically produced along the WCB in areas with high reflectivities and hydrometeor contents, and at upper levels, low potential vorticity prevails in the cirrus layer in the WCB outflow. The study provides important observational insight into the internal cloud structure of WCBs and emphasizes the ability of ERA5 to essentially capture the observed pattern but also reveals many small- and mesoscale structures observed by the remote sensing instruments but not captured by ERA5

Atmospheric processes triggering the central European floods in June 2013

In June 2013, central Europe was hit by a century flood affecting the Danube and Elbe catchments after a 4 day period of heavy precipitation and causing severe human and economic loss. In this study model analysis and observational data are investigated to reveal the key atmospheric processes that caused the heavy precipitation event. The period preceding the flood was characterised by a weather regime associated with cool and unusual wet conditions resulting from repeated Rossby wave breaking (RWB). During the event a single RWB established a reversed baroclinicity in the low to mid-troposphere in central Europe with cool air trapped over the Alps and warmer air to the north. The upper-level cut-off resulting from the RWB instigated three consecutive cyclones in eastern Europe that unusually tracked westward during the days of heavy precipitation. Continuous large-scale slantwise ascent in so-called "equatorward ascending" warm conveyor belts (WCBs) associated with these cyclones is found as the key process that caused the 4 day heavy precipitation period. Fed by moisture sources from continental evapotranspiration, these WCBs unusually ascended equatorward along the southward sloping moist isentropes. Although "equatorward ascending" WCBs are climatologically rare events, they have great potential for causing high impact weather.ISSN:1561-8633ISSN:1684-998