54 research outputs found
Analysis of negative flow of gravitational waves
In this article, we made the mathematical explanation of the anti-gravitational waves, by the inspiration that we got from the observed positron in cosmic rays. Then, we analyzed the mathematical difference between positive and negative flows of gravitational waves; and we calculated the spin of the negative flow of gravitational waves, which is used to stabilize the movement of the waves. In the mathematical formulas we found that positive and negative flows move in opposite directions from each other; therefore, if we see the spin (rotation) of the waves from the planet that emits the waves, the positive flow rotates anti-clockwise, while the negative flow rotates clockwise. We also investigated the possible origin of gravitational waves, and concluded that the negative flow can occur when the positive flow appears, leaving holes behind, in the gravitational field, which is trig-gered by the movements of a large mass of the planet
Simulating the rotation of a black hole and antigravity
In this article, we show that rotation of a black hole can create antigravity and anti-gravitational waves, given that there is a strong gravity in the black hole, which distorts time and space. At first, we derived the curvature tensors upon Einsteinβs field equation, using spherical polar coordinates, and then calculated the coefficients of the curvature tensors to simulate the strength of each component of the tensors. It is assumed that the stress-energy tensor, which is located outside of the black hole, can reflect the strength of the gravitational field and the gravitational waves. As the result, we concluded that, if the time and space are distorted in the black hole, the rotation can create antigravity and the anti-gravitational waves. In addition, the result of the simulation shows that the antigravity positively contributes to the stress-energy tensor, which may expand the size of the Universe
Simulation of a rotating strong gravity that reverses time
In this research we simulated how time can be reversed with a rotating strong gravity. At first, we assumed that the time and the space can be distorted with the presence of a strong gravity, and then we calculated the angular momentum density of the rotating gravitational field. For this simulation we used Einsteinβs field equation with spherical polar coordinates and the Eulerβs transformation matrix to simulate the rotation. We also assumed that the stress-energy tensor that is placed at the end of the strong gravitational field reflects the intensities of the angular momentum, which is the normal (perpendicular) vector to the rotating axis. The result of the simulation shows that the angular momentum of the rotating strong gravity changes its directions from plus (the future) to minus (the past) and from minus (the past) to plus (the future), depending on the frequency of the rotation
Numerical simulation of gravitational waves from a black hole, using curvature tensors
In this research we formulated the curvature tensors with the system of spherical polar coordinates, which describe the gravitational field and gravitational waves of a black hole; and then we calculated eigenvalues of the curvature tensors to estimate the relative strengths of their components to the stress-energy tensor in Einsteinβs field equation. For this simulation, we assumed that the time and the distance interact with each other if we travel from Earth to the inside of the black hole, and then the result of the simulation showed that the gravitational waves carry the same components of the gravitational field of the black hole. On the other hand, when we assumed that the time and the distance are independent, which resembles the situation outside of the boundary of the black hole toward Earth, the curvature tensors are different between those of the gravitational field and the gravitational waves. Upon the results of the simulation we conclude that the gravitational waves that come from the inside of the black hole carry the information of the gravitational field inside of the black hole, if we assume that time and space are dependent each other
Calculating energy density and spin momentum density of Moonβs gravitational waves in rectilinear coordinates
In this research the energy density was calculated and the spin momentum density of Moonβs gravitational waves in the rectilinear coordinatesβ system of Moonβs gravity and Earthβs global temperature. At first, we assumed an action principle that combines the gravitational field and gravitational waves, which formulate a closed system, together with Earthβs global temperature. And, then, we calculated the energy densities of those energy field and waves, which are calculated as their variances in the rectilinear coordinates, also to calculate their coefficients and standard errors of the calculated coefficients. The calculated results are consistent with the findings of our previous research [1], which shows the negative contribution of gravitational waves to Earthβs global temperature, while the gravitational field positively contributes to the global temperature. We also calculated spin momentum of Moonβs gravitational waves in the system of rectilinear coordinates
Simulating angular momentum of gravitational field of a rotating black hole and spin momentum of gravitational waves
In this research, we simulated the angular momentum of gravitational field of a rotating black hole and the spin momentum of gravitational waves emitted from the black hole. At first, we calculated energy densities of the rotating gravitational field and spinning gravitational waves as the vectors, which were projected on the spherical curved surface of the gravitational field and of the gravitational waves. Then we calculated the angular momentum and the spin momentum as the vectors perpendicular to the curved surface. The earlier research by Paul Dirac, published in 1964, did not select the curved surface to calculate the motion of quantum particles; but, instead, he chose the flat surface to develop the theory of quantum mechanics. However, we pursued the simulation of the gravitational waves in spherical polar coordinates that form the spherical curved surface of the gravitational waves. As a result, we found that a set of anti-symmetric vectors described the vectors that were perpendicular to the spherical curved surface, and with these vectors we simulated the angular momentum of the rotating black holeβs gravitational field and the spin momentum of gravitational waves. The obtained results describe the characteristics of the rotation of a black hole and of spinning gravitational waves
A literature review of abstractive summarization methods
The paper contains a literature review for automatic abstractive text summarization. The classification of abstractive text summarization methods was considered. Since the emergence of text summarization in the 1950s, techniques for summaries generation were constantly improving, but because the abstractive summarization require extensive language processing, the greatest progress was achieved only recently. Due to the current fast pace of development of both Natural Language Processing in general and Text Summarization in particular, it is essential to analyze the progress in these areas. The paper aims to give a general perspective on both the state-of-the-art and older approaches, while explaining the methods and approaches. Additionally, evaluation results of the research papers are presented
Π’Π΅ΠΎΡΠΈΡ, Π°Π»Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΡΠΌ ΠΈ ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ Π°Π³ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π²ΡΠ³ΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΠΈ Π²ΡΠ΅Π΄Π° Π·Π΄ΠΎΡΠΎΠ²ΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΠΆΠΈΠ³Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΡΠ³ΠΎΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΎΠΏΠ»ΠΈΠ²Π°
ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΡ Π΄ΠΎΡΠ»ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ Ρ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π²ΡΡΠΊΠ° ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ Π·Π°ΡΡΠΎΡΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π² Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΡΠΉ ΡΠ΅ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠ΅ΠΏΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ Π΄Π»Ρ Π°Π³ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ·Π½ΠΈΡ
Π·ΠΌΡΠ½Π½ΠΈΡ
, ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΈΡ
ΡΠΊ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½Π° Π²ΠΈΠ³ΠΎΠ΄Π° ΡΠ° Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½Π° ΡΠΊΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΏΡΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡ Π΄ΡΡΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ. ΠΠ»Ρ ΡΡΡΡ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π²ΡΡΠΊΠΈ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ ΡΠΏΠ°Π»ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π²ΡΠ³ΡΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠ°Π»ΠΈΠ²Π° Π΄Π»Ρ Π²ΠΈΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅Π½Π½Ρ Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ΅Π½Π΅ΡΠ³ΡΡ, ΡΠΊΠ΅ Ρ Π΄ΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π»ΠΎΠΌ ΡΠΊ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ Π²ΠΈΠ³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ, ΡΠ°ΠΊ Ρ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ Π·Π΄ΠΎΡΠΎΠ²βΡ Π»ΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½ΠΈ. ΠΠ° Π΄ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ³ΠΎΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΡΠ·Ρ Π½Π° ΠΏΡΠ΄ΡΡΠ°Π²Ρ Π΄Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
ΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠ³Ρ ΡΠΏΠ°Π»ΡΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°Π»Ρ ΡΠ° ΡΡΠ²Π½Ρ Π·Π°Π±ΡΡΠ΄Π½Π΅Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΡΡΡΡ Π΄Π²Π°Π΄ΡΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΈ ΠΎΠ±Π»Π°ΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΎ ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π΄Π΅ΠΊΡΠ»ΡΠΊΠΎΡ
ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ. ΠΡΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π½Ρ ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈ ΡΠ·Π³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΆΡΡΡΡΡΡ Π· ΡΠ΅ΠΎΡΡΡΡ ΡΠ° Π°Π½Π°Π»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠΌ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
Π΄Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
. ΠΠ²ΡΠΎΡΠΈ Π΄ΡΠΉΡΠ»ΠΈ Π²ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²ΠΊΡ, ΡΠΎ Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡ Π°Π³ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ·Π½ΠΎΠΌΠ°Π½ΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΡΠ² (Π½Π΅Π·Π°Π»Π΅ΠΆΠ½ΠΈΡ
Π·ΠΌΡΠ½Π½ΠΈΡ
) Π²Π°ΠΆΠ»ΠΈΠ²Π΅ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΊΠΎΠ΅ΡΡΡΡΡΠ½ΡΠ° Π·Π²Π°ΠΆΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ½ΠΈ, ΠΎΡΠΊΡΠ»ΡΠΊΠΈ Ρ ΡΡΠΉ ΡΠ΅ΠΎΡΡΡ Π²ΠΎΠ½ΠΈ Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ°ΡΡΡ Π·Π°Π³Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΉ Π±ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅Ρ, ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ Π²ΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»ΡΡ ΠΎΠ±ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΌΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ Π·Π° ΡΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΡΠ², ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΈΡ
ΡΠΊ ΠΊΡΠ»ΡΠΊΡΡΡΡ ΡΠ° Π²Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠΈΠ½Π° ΡΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΡΠ².The purpose of the research is to test a possibility of using the theory of utility function in economics theory [1] for aggregating different kinds of variables such as economic benefit and ecological damages of industrial activities. An example of coal fuel combustion for electricity generation [2, 3] is selected for this test, which produces both economic benefit and human health damages. Several mathematical
models for the utility function are tested with the data of the volume of combustions and the amount of air pollutions of twenty seven Oblasts of Ukraine by the regression analysis [4]. Consistent results are obtained upon the theory and the statistical data analysis. It is concluded that the prices take important role to give the weighting factor through the aggregation process of various indicators (independent variables) because in this theory the prices make up the total budget, which gives the constraints for maximizing the utility with given values such as number and volume of the indicators.Π¦Π΅Π»ΡΡ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ²Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ²Π΅ΡΠΊΠ° Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π² ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ΅ΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠ΅ΠΏΡΠΈΠΈ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π΅Π·Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π΄Π»Ρ Π°Π³ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ°Π·Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
, ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ Π²ΡΠ³ΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΈ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ Π²ΡΠ΅Π΄ ΠΏΡΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ Π΄Π΅ΡΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ. ΠΠ»Ρ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ²Π΅ΡΠΊΠΈ Π²ΡΠ±ΡΠ°Π½ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Ρ ΡΠΆΠΈΠ³Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ³ΠΎΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΎΠΏΠ»ΠΈΠ²Π° Π΄Π»Ρ Π²ΡΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠΊΠΈ ΡΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΡΠ½Π΅ΡΠ³ΠΈΠΈ, ΡΠ²Π»ΡΡΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΡΡ ΠΈΡΡΠΎΡΠ½ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠΌ ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π²ΡΠ³ΠΎΠ΄Ρ, ΡΠ°ΠΊ ΠΈ Π²ΡΠ΅Π΄Π° Π·Π΄ΠΎΡΠΎΠ²ΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π»ΠΎΠ²Π΅ΠΊΠ°. Π‘ ΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π° Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ° ΡΠΆΠΈΠ³Π°Π΅ΠΌΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ°Π»Π° ΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π½Ρ Π·Π°Π³ΡΡΠ·Π½Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π²ΠΎΠ·Π΄ΡΡ
Π° Π΄Π²Π°Π΄ΡΠ°ΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΈ ΠΎΠ±Π»Π°ΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΎ ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π½Π΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π΅Π·Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ. ΠΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡ ΡΠΎΠ³Π»Π°ΡΡΡΡΡΡ Ρ ΡΠ΅ΠΎΡΠΈΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΈ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠΌ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
. ΠΠ²ΡΠΎΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠ»ΠΈ ΠΊ Π²ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ΄Ρ, ΡΡΠΎ Π² ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ΅ Π°Π³ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ°Π·Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ² (Π½Π΅Π·Π°Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΠΌΡΡ
ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
) Π±ΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΎΠ΅ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ΅Π½ΡΠ° Π²Π·Π²Π΅ΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π½Ρ, ΠΏΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΡΠΊΡ Π² ΡΡΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ΅ΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΎΠ½ΠΈ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»ΡΡΡ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠΈΠΉ Π±ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅Ρ, ΡΡΡΠ°Π½Π°Π²Π»ΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΎΠ³ΡΠ°Π½ΠΈΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΌΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π΅Π·Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΈ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠ°Ρ
, ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΠΎ ΠΈ Π²Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠΈΠ½Π° ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ²
Π‘ΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΡΠΈΡ ΠΎΠΎΠΊΠ΅Π°Π½ΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΡΠ½Π° ΠΌΡΡΠΎΡΠ°
ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΡ Π΄ΠΎΡΠ»ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ Π±ΡΠ»ΠΎ Π²ΠΈΡΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Π½Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ»ΠΈΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΡΡΠ² ΡΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΈΡΠΊΡ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ°ΡΡΡ ΡΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ²Π½ΠΎ Π½Π°ΠΊΠΎΠΏΠΈΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ²Π΅ΡΠ΄ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
Π²ΡΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ² ΡΠ° ΡΡ
Π²ΠΏΠ»ΠΈΠ²Ρ Π½Π° Π·ΠΌΡΠ½ΠΈ Π½Π°Π²ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡΠ° Ρ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΡΡΠΎΡΠΈ β ΡΠΈΡ
ΠΎΠΎΠΊΠ΅Π°Π½ΡΡΠΊΠΎΡ ΠΏΠ»ΡΠΌΠΈ ΡΠΌΡΡΡΡ. Π―ΠΊ Π²Ρ
ΡΠ΄Π½Ρ Π΄Π°Π½Ρ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΄ΠΎΠ²ΠΈ ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΡΠ·Ρ Π²ΠΈΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊΡ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΊΠΈ ΡΠ²Π΅ΡΠ΄ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
Π²ΡΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ² Ρ Π‘Π¨Π, ΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠ½Π°Ρ
ΠΠ²ΡΠΎΠΏΠ΅ΠΉΡΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π‘ΠΎΡΠ·Ρ ΡΠ° Π‘ΠΈΠ½Π³Π°ΠΏΡΡΡ. ΠΠ° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Ρ Π½Π°ΡΠ²Π½ΠΈΡ
Π΄Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΠΊΡΠ»ΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΡ Π²ΡΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ², ΡΠΎ Π½Π°ΠΊΠΎΠΏΠΈΡΡΡΡΡΡΡ, ΡΠ° ΡΡΠ²Π½Ρ ΡΡ
ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΊΠΈ. ΠΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ, ΡΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅Ρ ΡΡΠ²ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ Π²ΡΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ² Π½Π°ΠΉΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠ΅ ΠΎΠΏΠΈΡΡΡΡΡΡΡ Π·Π° Π΄ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ³ΠΎΡ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ 1-Π³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΄ΠΊΡ Ρ ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ Π· ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π΄ΠΎΠΌ 3-Π³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΄ΠΊΡ. ΠΠΈΡΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π΄ΠΈ ΡΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΈΡΠΊΡ Π΄ΠΎΡΠ»ΡΠ΄ΠΆΡΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡ Ρ Π²ΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ, ΡΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΠ³ΠΎΠΌ Π½Π°ΠΉΠ±Π»ΠΈΠΆΡΠΈΡ
Π΄Π΅ΡΡΡΠΈ ΡΠΎΠΊΡΠ² ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ·Π½ΠΎΠΌΠ°Π½ΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΡΡΠ² ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ· ΡΠ²Π΅ΡΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΠΌΠΈ Π²ΡΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄Π°ΠΌΠΈ Ρ ΡΡΠ·Π½ΠΈΡ
ΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠ½Π°Ρ
ΡΠ²ΡΡΡ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅ ΡΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ½ΠΈΡΠΈ ΡΡΠ·Π½ΠΎΠΌΠ°Π½ΡΡΠ½Ρ Π½Π°ΡΠ»ΡΠ΄ΠΊΠΈ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠΈΡ
ΠΎΠΎΠΊΠ΅Π°Π½ΡΡΠΊΠΎΡ ΠΏΠ»ΡΠΌΠΈ ΡΠΌΡΡΡΡ ΡΠ° Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ°ΡΡΡ Π²Π·Π°Π³Π°Π»Ρ. ΠΠ° ΠΏΡΠΈΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄Ρ
ΡΡΡΡ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠΈ ΠΎΠΏΠΈΡΠ°Π½ΠΎ Π·Π°Π³Π°Π»ΡΠ½Ρ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΡ Π²ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ½Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΡΠ·Ρ. ΠΠ°ΠΉΠ±ΡΠ»ΡΡ ΠΆΠΈΡΡΡΠ·Π΄Π°ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π΄ ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΡΡΠ² Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΎ Π·Π° Π΄ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ³ΠΎΡ ΡΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΡΠ²
ΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π΄ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Ρ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
Π΄Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
. ΠΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ Π΄Π΅ΡΠ΅Π²ΠΎ ΡΡΡΠ΅Π½Ρ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ; Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π²ΠΈΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΉΠ½Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ ΡΠ° Π·ΠΌΡΡΠ°Π½Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ Π· ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π΄ΠΎΠΌ.The study performed aimed at constructing and comparing scenarios of the solid waste treatment policy in different countries and their influence on variations of environmental dynamics changes in the area of ecological catastrophe β Pacific trash vortex. As input data for the scenario constructing and performing corresponding analysis the statistics for the solid waste processing in the USA, European Union and Singapore was used. The models were constructed for forecasting of the waste accumulated and the percentage of their processing. It was established that the process of the waste accumulation is described best with autoregressive model and structural model with trend. The basic trends for further development of the process under study have been discovered. Over the next ten years the implementation
of various solid waste treatment scenarios in the world can cause a variety of implications for the Pacific trash vortex and ecological situation in general, as discussed in the article. A comparative analysis of the policy scenarios for the solid waste treatment was carried out. Using as an example this environmental problem a general methodology of scenario building is described. The indicators to define the robustness of these scenarios and the best one of them were found using actual data. The following tools were used for the purpose: scenario modeling, decision tree constructing for probabilistic modeling, autoregression models and models with description of trend.Π¦Π΅Π»ΡΡ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ Π±ΡΠ»ΠΎ Π²ΡΡΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΡΡ
ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΠΈΠ΅Π² ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎ ΡΠ²Π΅ΡΠ΄ΡΡ
Π±ΡΡΠΎΠ²ΡΡ
ΠΎΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΠΈΡ
Π²Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΡ Π½Π° ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π² ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π΅ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΡΡΠΎΡΡ β ΡΠΈΡ
ΠΎΠΎΠΊΠ΅Π°Π½ΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΡΠ½Π° ΠΌΡΡΠΎΡΠ°. Π ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅ ΠΈΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΡΡ
Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊΠ° ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠΊΠΈ ΡΠ²Π΅ΡΠ΄ΡΡ
Π±ΡΡΠΎΠ²ΡΡ
ΠΎΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Π² Π‘Π¨Π, ΡΡΡΠ°Π½Π°Ρ
ΠΠ²ΡΠΎΠΏΠ΅ΠΉΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π‘ΠΎΡΠ·Π° ΠΈ Π‘ΠΈΠ½Π³Π°ΠΏΡΡΠ΅. ΠΠ° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΡ
ΡΡ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠΎΡΡΡΠΎΠ΅Π½Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π° ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΡΡΡΠΈΡ
ΡΡ ΠΎΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π½Ρ ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠΊΠΈ. Π£ΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ, ΡΡΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΎΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Π»ΡΡΡΠ΅ Π²ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎ ΠΎΠΏΠΈΡΡΠ²Π°Π΅ΡΡΡ Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ
Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ 1-Π³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΄ΠΊΠ° ΠΈ ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π΄ΠΎΠΌ 3-Π³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΄ΠΊΠ°. ΠΠ±Π½Π°ΡΡΠΆΠ΅Π½Ρ ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π½ΡΠ΅ ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π΄Ρ ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΡ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°, ΠΈ ΡΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ, ΡΡΠΎ Π² ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π±Π»ΠΈΠΆΠ°ΠΉΡΠΈΡ
Π΄Π΅ΡΡΡΠΈ Π»Π΅Ρ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΡ ΡΠ°Π·Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΠΈΠ΅Π² ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ Ρ ΡΠ²Π΅ΡΠ΄ΡΠΌΠΈ Π±ΡΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΎΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄Π°ΠΌΠΈ Π² ΡΡΡΠ°Π½Π°Ρ
ΠΌΠΈΡΠ° ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ Π²ΡΠ·Π²Π°ΡΡ ΡΠ°Π·Π½ΠΎΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡΡΠ²ΠΈΡ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠΈΡ
ΠΎΠΎΠΊΠ΅Π°Π½ΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΡΠ½Π° ΠΌΡΡΠΎΡΠ° ΠΈ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ Π² ΡΠ΅Π»ΠΎΠΌ. ΠΠ° ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ΅ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΡ ΠΎΠΏΠΈΡΠ°Π½Π° ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Ρ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΠΏΠΎΡΡΡΠΎΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°. ΠΠ°ΠΈΠ±ΠΎΠ»Π΅Π΅ ΠΆΠΈΠ·Π½Π΅ΡΠΏΠΎΡΠΎΠ±Π½ΡΠΉ ΡΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΡΠΎΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΠΈΠ΅Π² ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ² ΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π΄ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
. ΠΠΎΡΡΡΠΎΠ΅Π½ΠΎ Π΄Π΅ΡΠ΅Π²ΠΎ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ; Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Ρ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π΄ΠΎΠΌ
Π€ΠΎΡΠΌΠ°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΊΠΈ Π·Π°Π΄Π°ΡΠΈ ΡΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Π² ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°Ρ ΡΠ°Π·Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ
Π ΠΎΠ·Π³Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΡ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΎΠΏΠΈΡΡ Π·Π°Π³Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΊΠΈ Π·Π°Π΄Π°ΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΊΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Π² ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠΌΡ Π΄Π»Ρ Π΄ΠΎΡΠ»ΡΠ΄ΠΆΡΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎΡ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΈ. ΠΠ΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΡΠ΄Π½ΡΡΡΡ Π·Π²Π΅ΡΠ½Π΅Π½Π½Ρ Π΄ΠΎ ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΊ Π·ΡΠΌΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Π° ΡΠΈΠΌ, ΡΠΎ ΡΡΠ½ΡΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ ΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡ Π»ΠΎΠΊΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΉ Π½Π΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ½ΠΈΠΉ Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅Ρ Π΄ΠΎΡΠ»ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΡΠ², Π½Π΅ΠΏΡΠΈΠ΄Π°ΡΠ½Ρ Π΄Π»Ρ Π²ΡΠ°Ρ
ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ·Π½ΠΎΡ ΡΠ° ΠΌΡΠΆΠ΄ΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΏΠ»ΡΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΡΠ², Π½Π΅ Π·Π΄Π°ΡΠ½Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»Π°ΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠΈ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠΊΠ°Π΄Π½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΡΠ². Π ΠΎΠ·Π³Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡΠ° ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΊΠ° Π·Π°Π΄Π°ΡΡ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ ΠΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π° Ρ ΡΠ·Π°Π³Π°Π»ΡΠ½Π΅Π½ΠΎΡ, ΡΠ½ΡΠ²Π΅ΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΠ° ΡΠ΄Π΅Π°Π»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎΡ, Ρ ΡΠΊΡΠΉ ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊ Π½Π΅ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ Π² ΡΠ²Π½ΠΎΠΌΡ Π²ΠΈΠ³Π»ΡΠ΄Ρ, Π° ΡΠΎΠΌΡ Π½Π΅ΠΌΠ°Ρ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΡΠ΄Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ Ρ Π²ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ½Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π΄ΠΎΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΡΠ·Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ»ΠΈΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΡΠ². ΠΠ°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠ΄Ρ
ΡΠ΄ Π΄ΠΎ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΡ Π·Π°Π΄Π°ΡΡ ΠΊΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Ρ Π΄ΠΎΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π΄ΠΎΡΠ»ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΡΠ² Ρ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΉ ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΡΠ². ΠΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½Π° ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΡ ΠΊΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ°ΡΡΡΡΡ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Ρ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°Π»Ρ ΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΡ, ΡΠΎ Π·Π°Π±Π΅Π·ΠΏΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΠΌΡΠ½ΡΠΌΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΡ Π½Π΅Π³Π°ΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ²ΡΠ² ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΡΠ² Ρ ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠΌΡ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΈ, ΠΌΡΠ½ΡΠΌΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΡ Π²ΠΈΡΡΠ°Ρ Π½Π° ΠΊΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΠΌΠΈ ΡΠ° Π·Π°ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΡΠ³Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΡΠΉΠ½ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ (Π·Π°Π³ΠΈΠ±Π΅Π»Ρ) ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΈ.The paper considers the problem of formal statement of the general problem of integrated risk management in complex systems as a whole of different nature. Relevance of such formulations caused with the fact that the existing approaches are directed to local non-systemic risk analysis that do not focus on different and often multidisciplinary nature of the risks, and are not able to overcome the problem of cascaded development of risks. The statement of the problem based on the Merton model is considered. This model shows generalized, universal and idealized approach, where the risk is not presented in an explicit form, and therefore a detailed risk analysis is not valid in this case. The proposed approach to the problem formalization and solving is based on a detailed study of risk factors and situations. The optimal control strategy is based on the functional that provides a minimum negative effect of the risks in the system as a whole, minimizing the costs of risk management and provides prevention of the system ruin.Π Π°ΡΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π½Π° ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ° ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΎΠΏΠΈΡΠ°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΊΠΈ Π·Π°Π΄Π°ΡΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Π² ΡΠ΅Π»ΠΎΠΌ ΠΏΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅. ΠΠ΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΊ ΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Π° ΡΠ΅ΠΌ, ΡΡΠΎ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΡΡΡΠΈΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄Ρ Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ Π»ΠΎΠΊΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ Π½Π΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ½ΡΠΉ Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅Ρ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π° ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΎΠ², Π½Π΅ ΠΎΠ±Π΅ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΡ ΡΡΠ΅Ρ ΡΠ°Π·Π½ΠΎΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎ ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄ΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΏΠ»ΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΎΠ², Π° ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΆΠ΅ Π½Π΅ ΡΠΏΠΎΡΠΎΠ±Π½Ρ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»Π΅ΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΡ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠΊΠ°Π΄Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΎΠ². Π Π°ΡΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½Π°Ρ Π² ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΊΠ° Π·Π°Π΄Π°ΡΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π° ΡΠ²Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ, ΡΠ½ΠΈΠ²Π΅ΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈ ΠΈΠ΄Π΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ, Π² ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΈΡΠΊ Π½Π΅ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ Π² ΡΠ²Π½ΠΎΠΌ Π²ΠΈΠ΄Π΅, ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠΎΠΌΡ Π½Π΅Ρ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π² Π²ΡΠΏΠΎΠ»Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΈ Π΄Π΅ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π° ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΎΠ². ΠΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ ΠΊ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ Π·Π°Π΄Π°ΡΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ Π΄Π΅ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΉ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΡΡ
ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΎΠ². ΠΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½Π°Ρ ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΡ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»Π° ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π°, ΠΎΠ±Π΅ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎ ΠΌΠΈΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΡ Π½Π΅Π³Π°ΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΎΠ² Π² ΡΠ΅Π»ΠΎΠΌ ΠΏΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅, ΠΌΠΈΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΡ ΡΠ°ΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Π½Π° ΡΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ°ΠΌΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΎΡΠ²ΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠ°Π·ΡΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΡ
- β¦