54 research outputs found

    Analysis of negative flow of gravitational waves

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    In this article, we made the mathematical explanation of the anti-gravitational waves, by the inspiration that we got from the observed positron in cosmic rays. Then, we analyzed the mathematical difference between positive and negative flows of gravitational waves; and we calculated the spin of the negative flow of gravitational waves, which is used to stabilize the movement of the waves. In the mathematical formulas we found that positive and negative flows move in opposite directions from each other; therefore, if we see the spin (rotation) of the waves from the planet that emits the waves, the positive flow rotates anti-clockwise, while the negative flow rotates clockwise. We also investigated the possible origin of gravitational waves, and concluded that the negative flow can occur when the positive flow appears, leaving holes behind, in the gravitational field, which is trig-gered by the movements of a large mass of the planet

    Simulating the rotation of a black hole and antigravity

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    In this article, we show that rotation of a black hole can create antigravity and anti-gravitational waves, given that there is a strong gravity in the black hole, which distorts time and space. At first, we derived the curvature tensors upon Einstein’s field equation, using spherical polar coordinates, and then calculated the coefficients of the curvature tensors to simulate the strength of each component of the tensors. It is assumed that the stress-energy tensor, which is located outside of the black hole, can reflect the strength of the gravitational field and the gravitational waves. As the result, we concluded that, if the time and space are distorted in the black hole, the rotation can create antigravity and the anti-gravitational waves. In addition, the result of the simulation shows that the antigravity positively contributes to the stress-energy tensor, which may expand the size of the Universe

    Simulation of a rotating strong gravity that reverses time

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    In this research we simulated how time can be reversed with a rotating strong gravity. At first, we assumed that the time and the space can be distorted with the presence of a strong gravity, and then we calculated the angular momentum density of the rotating gravitational field. For this simulation we used Einstein’s field equation with spherical polar coordinates and the Euler’s transformation matrix to simulate the rotation. We also assumed that the stress-energy tensor that is placed at the end of the strong gravitational field reflects the intensities of the angular momentum, which is the normal (perpendicular) vector to the rotating axis. The result of the simulation shows that the angular momentum of the rotating strong gravity changes its directions from plus (the future) to minus (the past) and from minus (the past) to plus (the future), depending on the frequency of the rotation

    Numerical simulation of gravitational waves from a black hole, using curvature tensors

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    In this research we formulated the curvature tensors with the system of spherical polar coordinates, which describe the gravitational field and gravitational waves of a black hole; and then we calculated eigenvalues of the curvature tensors to estimate the relative strengths of their components to the stress-energy tensor in Einstein’s field equation. For this simulation, we assumed that the time and the distance interact with each other if we travel from Earth to the inside of the black hole, and then the result of the simulation showed that the gravitational waves carry the same components of the gravitational field of the black hole. On the other hand, when we assumed that the time and the distance are independent, which resembles the situation outside of the boundary of the black hole toward Earth, the curvature tensors are different between those of the gravitational field and the gravitational waves. Upon the results of the simulation we conclude that the gravitational waves that come from the inside of the black hole carry the information of the gravitational field inside of the black hole, if we assume that time and space are dependent each other

    Calculating energy density and spin momentum density of Moon’s gravitational waves in rectilinear coordinates

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    In this research the energy density was calculated and the spin momentum density of Moon’s gravitational waves in the rectilinear coordinates’ system of Moon’s gravity and Earth’s global temperature. At first, we assumed an action principle that combines the gravitational field and gravitational waves, which formulate a closed system, together with Earth’s global temperature. And, then, we calculated the energy densities of those energy field and waves, which are calculated as their variances in the rectilinear coordinates, also to calculate their coefficients and standard errors of the calculated coefficients. The calculated results are consistent with the findings of our previous research [1], which shows the negative contribution of gravitational waves to Earth’s global temperature, while the gravitational field positively contributes to the global temperature. We also calculated spin momentum of Moon’s gravitational waves in the system of rectilinear coordinates

    Simulating angular momentum of gravitational field of a rotating black hole and spin momentum of gravitational waves

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    In this research, we simulated the angular momentum of gravitational field of a rotating black hole and the spin momentum of gravitational waves emitted from the black hole. At first, we calculated energy densities of the rotating gravitational field and spinning gravitational waves as the vectors, which were projected on the spherical curved surface of the gravitational field and of the gravitational waves. Then we calculated the angular momentum and the spin momentum as the vectors perpendicular to the curved surface. The earlier research by Paul Dirac, published in 1964, did not select the curved surface to calculate the motion of quantum particles; but, instead, he chose the flat surface to develop the theory of quantum mechanics. However, we pursued the simulation of the gravitational waves in spherical polar coordinates that form the spherical curved surface of the gravitational waves. As a result, we found that a set of anti-symmetric vectors described the vectors that were perpendicular to the spherical curved surface, and with these vectors we simulated the angular momentum of the rotating black hole’s gravitational field and the spin momentum of gravitational waves. The obtained results describe the characteristics of the rotation of a black hole and of spinning gravitational waves

    A literature review of abstractive summarization methods

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    The paper contains a literature review for automatic abstractive text summarization. The classification of abstractive text summarization methods was considered. Since the emergence of text summarization in the 1950s, techniques for summaries generation were constantly improving, but because the abstractive summarization require extensive language processing, the greatest progress was achieved only recently. Due to the current fast pace of development of both Natural Language Processing in general and Text Summarization in particular, it is essential to analyze the progress in these areas. The paper aims to give a general perspective on both the state-of-the-art and older approaches, while explaining the methods and approaches. Additionally, evaluation results of the research papers are presented

    ВСория, Π°Π»Π³ΠΎΡ€ΠΈΡ‚ΠΌ ΠΈ условия агрСгирования экономичСской Π²Ρ‹Π³ΠΎΠ΄Ρ‹ ΠΈ Π²Ρ€Π΅Π΄Π° Π·Π΄ΠΎΡ€ΠΎΠ²ΡŒΡŽ ΠΏΡ€ΠΈ сТигании ΡƒΠ³ΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Ρ‚ΠΎΠΏΠ»ΠΈΠ²Π°

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    ΠœΠ΅Ρ‚ΠΎΡŽ дослідТСння Ρ” ΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π΅Π²Ρ–Ρ€ΠΊΠ° моТливості застосування Π² Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡ–Ρ‡Π½Ρ–ΠΉ Ρ‚Π΅ΠΎΡ€Ρ–Ρ— ΠΊΠΎΠ½Ρ†Π΅ΠΏΡ†Ρ–Ρ— Ρ„ΡƒΠ½ΠΊΡ†Ρ–Ρ— корисності для агрСгування Ρ€Ρ–Π·Π½ΠΈΡ… Π·ΠΌΡ–Π½Π½ΠΈΡ…, Ρ‚Π°ΠΊΠΈΡ… як Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡ–Ρ‡Π½Π° Π²ΠΈΠ³ΠΎΠ΄Π° Ρ‚Π° Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³Ρ–Ρ‡Π½Π° шкода промислової Π΄Ρ–ΡΠ»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΡΡ‚Ρ–. Для Ρ†Ρ–Ρ”Ρ— ΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π΅Π²Ρ–Ρ€ΠΊΠΈ ΠΎΠ±Ρ€Π°Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ спалювання Π²ΡƒΠ³Ρ–Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠ°Π»ΠΈΠ²Π° для вироблСння Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΊΡ‚Ρ€ΠΎΠ΅Π½Π΅Ρ€Π³Ρ–Ρ—, якС Ρ” Π΄ΠΆΠ΅Ρ€Π΅Π»ΠΎΠΌ як Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡ–Ρ‡Π½ΠΎΡ— Π²ΠΈΠ³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ, Ρ‚Π°ΠΊ Ρ– шкоди Π·Π΄ΠΎΡ€ΠΎΠ²β€™ΡŽ людини. Π—Π° допомогою рСгрСсійного Π°Π½Π°Π»Ρ–Π·Ρƒ Π½Π° підставі Π΄Π°Π½ΠΈΡ… обсягу спалюваного ΠΌΠ°Ρ‚Π΅Ρ€Ρ–Π°Π»Ρƒ Ρ‚Π° рівня забруднСності повітря двадцяти сСми областСй ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΎ тСстування Π΄Π΅ΠΊΡ–Π»ΡŒΠΊΠΎΡ… ΠΌΠ°Ρ‚Π΅ΠΌΠ°Ρ‚ΠΈΡ‡Π½ΠΈΡ… ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Ρ„ΡƒΠ½ΠΊΡ†Ρ–Ρ— корисності. ΠžΡ‚Ρ€ΠΈΠΌΠ°Π½Ρ– Ρ€Π΅Π·ΡƒΠ»ΡŒΡ‚Π°Ρ‚ΠΈ ΡƒΠ·Π³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΆΡƒΡŽΡ‚ΡŒΡΡ Π· Ρ‚Π΅ΠΎΡ€Ρ–Ρ”ΡŽ Ρ‚Π° Π°Π½Π°Π»Ρ–Π·ΠΎΠΌ статистичних Π΄Π°Π½ΠΈΡ…. Автори Π΄Ρ–ΠΉΡˆΠ»ΠΈ висновку, Ρ‰ΠΎ Ρƒ процСсі агрСгування Ρ€Ρ–Π·Π½ΠΎΠΌΠ°Π½Ρ–Ρ‚Π½ΠΈΡ… Ρ–Π½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°Ρ‚ΠΎΡ€Ρ–Π² (Π½Π΅Π·Π°Π»Π΅ΠΆΠ½ΠΈΡ… Π·ΠΌΡ–Π½Π½ΠΈΡ…) Π²Π°ΠΆΠ»ΠΈΠ²Π΅ значСння для ΠΊΠΎΠ΅Ρ„Ρ–Ρ†Ρ–Ρ”Π½Ρ‚Π° зваТування ΠΌΠ°ΡŽΡ‚ΡŒ Ρ†Ρ–Π½ΠΈ, ΠΎΡΠΊΡ–Π»ΡŒΠΊΠΈ Ρƒ Ρ†Ρ–ΠΉ Ρ‚Π΅ΠΎΡ€Ρ–Ρ— Π²ΠΎΠ½ΠΈ Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°Ρ‡Π°ΡŽΡ‚ΡŒ загальний Π±ΡŽΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅Ρ‚, який Π²ΡΡ‚Π°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»ΡŽΡ” обмСТСння для максимізації корисності Π·Π° Ρ†ΠΈΡ… ΠΏΠ°Ρ€Π°ΠΌΠ΅Ρ‚Ρ€Ρ–Π², Ρ‚Π°ΠΊΠΈΡ… як ΠΊΡ–Π»ΡŒΠΊΡ–ΡΡ‚ΡŒ Ρ‚Π° Π²Π΅Π»ΠΈΡ‡ΠΈΠ½Π° Ρ–Π½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°Ρ‚ΠΎΡ€Ρ–Π².The purpose of the research is to test a possibility of using the theory of utility function in economics theory [1] for aggregating different kinds of variables such as economic benefit and ecological damages of industrial activities. An example of coal fuel combustion for electricity generation [2, 3] is selected for this test, which produces both economic benefit and human health damages. Several mathematical models for the utility function are tested with the data of the volume of combustions and the amount of air pollutions of twenty seven Oblasts of Ukraine by the regression analysis [4]. Consistent results are obtained upon the theory and the statistical data analysis. It is concluded that the prices take important role to give the weighting factor through the aggregation process of various indicators (independent variables) because in this theory the prices make up the total budget, which gives the constraints for maximizing the utility with given values such as number and volume of the indicators.ЦСлью исслСдования являСтся ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ²Π΅Ρ€ΠΊΠ° возмоТности примСнСния Π² экономичСской Ρ‚Π΅ΠΎΡ€ΠΈΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠ½Ρ†Π΅ΠΏΡ†ΠΈΠΈ Ρ„ΡƒΠ½ΠΊΡ†ΠΈΠΈ полСзности для агрСгирования Ρ€Π°Π·Π½Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ‹Ρ…, Ρ‚Π°ΠΊΠΈΡ… ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ экономичСская Π²Ρ‹Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΈ экологичСский Π²Ρ€Π΅Π΄ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠΌΡ‹ΡˆΠ»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ Π΄Π΅ΡΡ‚Π΅Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΡΡ‚ΠΈ. Для Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ²Π΅Ρ€ΠΊΠΈ Π²Ρ‹Π±Ρ€Π°Π½ ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Ρ€ сТигания ΡƒΠ³ΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Ρ‚ΠΎΠΏΠ»ΠΈΠ²Π° для Π²Ρ‹Ρ€Π°Π±ΠΎΡ‚ΠΊΠΈ элСктроэнСргии, ΡΠ²Π»ΡΡŽΡ‰Π΅Π³ΠΎΡΡ источником ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ экономичСской Π²Ρ‹Π³ΠΎΠ΄Ρ‹, Ρ‚Π°ΠΊ ΠΈ Π²Ρ€Π΅Π΄Π° Π·Π΄ΠΎΡ€ΠΎΠ²ΡŒΡŽ Ρ‡Π΅Π»ΠΎΠ²Π΅ΠΊΠ°. Π‘ ΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΡ‰ΡŒΡŽ рСгрСссионного Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π° Π½Π° основании Π΄Π°Π½Π½Ρ‹Ρ… объСма сТигаСмого ΠΌΠ°Ρ‚Π΅Ρ€ΠΈΠ°Π»Π° ΠΈ уровня загрязнСнности Π²ΠΎΠ·Π΄ΡƒΡ…Π° Π΄Π²Π°Π΄Ρ†Π°Ρ‚ΠΈ сСми областСй ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΎ тСстированиС Π½Π΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠΊΠΈΡ… матСматичСских ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Ρ„ΡƒΠ½ΠΊΡ†ΠΈΠΈ полСзности. ΠŸΠΎΠ»ΡƒΡ‡Π΅Π½Π½Ρ‹Π΅ Ρ€Π΅Π·ΡƒΠ»ΡŒΡ‚Π°Ρ‚Ρ‹ ΡΠΎΠ³Π»Π°ΡΡƒΡŽΡ‚ΡΡ с Ρ‚Π΅ΠΎΡ€ΠΈΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΈ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠΌ статистичСских Π΄Π°Π½Π½Ρ‹Ρ…. Авторы ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΡˆΠ»ΠΈ ΠΊ Π²Ρ‹Π²ΠΎΠ΄Ρƒ, Ρ‡Ρ‚ΠΎ Π² процСссС агрСгирования Ρ€Π°Π·Π»ΠΈΡ‡Π½Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°Ρ‚ΠΎΡ€ΠΎΠ² (нСзависимых ΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ‹Ρ…) большоС Π·Π½Π°Ρ‡Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ для коэффициСнта взвСшивания ΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡŽΡ‚ Ρ†Π΅Π½Ρ‹, ΠΏΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠΊΡƒ Π² этой Ρ‚Π΅ΠΎΡ€ΠΈΠΈ ΠΎΠ½ΠΈ ΠΎΠΏΡ€Π΅Π΄Π΅Π»ΡΡŽΡ‚ ΠΎΠ±Ρ‰ΠΈΠΉ Π±ΡŽΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅Ρ‚, ΡƒΡΡ‚Π°Π½Π°Π²Π»ΠΈΠ²Π°ΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΠΉ ограничСния для максимизации полСзности ΠΏΡ€ΠΈ Π΄Π°Π½Π½Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΏΠ°Ρ€Π°ΠΌΠ΅Ρ‚Ρ€Π°Ρ…, Ρ‚Π°ΠΊΠΈΡ… ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ количСство ΠΈ Π²Π΅Π»ΠΈΡ‡ΠΈΠ½Π° ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°Ρ‚ΠΎΡ€ΠΎΠ²

    Π‘Ρ†Π΅Π½Π°Ρ€Π½ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΡ€ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΠΈΠΊΠΈ тихоокСанского пятна мусора

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    ΠœΠ΅Ρ‚ΠΎΡŽ дослідТСння Π±ΡƒΠ»ΠΎ виявлСння ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ»ΠΈΠ²ΠΈΡ… сцСнаріїв Ρ€ΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΈΡ‚ΠΊΡƒ ситуації стосовно накопичСння Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€Π΄ΠΈΡ… ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΡƒΡ‚ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ… Π²Ρ–Π΄Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄Ρ–Π² Ρ‚Π° Ρ—Ρ… Π²ΠΏΠ»ΠΈΠ²Ρƒ Π½Π° Π·ΠΌΡ–Π½ΠΈ навколишнього сСрСдовища Ρƒ Ρ€Π΅Π³Ρ–ΠΎΠ½Ρ– Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³Ρ–Ρ‡Π½ΠΎΡ— катастрофи β€” Ρ‚ΠΈΡ…ΠΎΠΎΠΊΠ΅Π°Π½ΡΡŒΠΊΠΎΡ— плями сміття. Π―ΠΊ Π²Ρ…Ρ–Π΄Π½Ρ– Π΄Π°Π½Ρ– для ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΡƒΠ΄ΠΎΠ²ΠΈ сцСнарного Π°Π½Π°Π»Ρ–Π·Ρƒ використано статистику ΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π΅Ρ€ΠΎΠ±ΠΊΠΈ Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€Π΄ΠΈΡ… ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΡƒΡ‚ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ… Π²Ρ–Π΄Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄Ρ–Π² Ρƒ БША, ΠΊΡ€Π°Ρ—Π½Π°Ρ… Π„Π²Ρ€ΠΎΠΏΠ΅ΠΉΡΡŒΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π‘ΠΎΡŽΠ·Ρƒ Ρ‚Π° Π‘ΠΈΠ½Π³Π°ΠΏΡƒΡ€Ρ–. На основі наявних Π΄Π°Π½ΠΈΡ… ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΡƒΠ΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ– для прогнозування ΠΊΡ–Π»ΡŒΠΊΠΎΡΡ‚Ρ– Π²Ρ–Π΄Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄Ρ–Π², Ρ‰ΠΎ Π½Π°ΠΊΠΎΠΏΠΈΡ‡ΡƒΡŽΡ‚ΡŒΡΡ, Ρ‚Π° рівня Ρ—Ρ… ΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π΅Ρ€ΠΎΠ±ΠΊΠΈ. ВстановлСно, Ρ‰ΠΎ процСс утворСння Π²Ρ–Π΄Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄Ρ–Π² Π½Π°ΠΉΠΊΡ€Π°Ρ‰Π΅ ΠΎΠΏΠΈΡΡƒΡ”Ρ‚ΡŒΡΡ Π·Π° допомогою авторСгрСсійної ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ– 1-Π³ΠΎ порядку Ρ– структурної ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ– Π· Ρ‚Ρ€Π΅Π½Π΄ΠΎΠΌ 3-Π³ΠΎ порядку. ВиявлСно основні Ρ‚Ρ€Π΅Π½Π΄ΠΈ Ρ€ΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΈΡ‚ΠΊΡƒ дослідТуваного процСсу Ρ– встановлСно, Ρ‰ΠΎ протягом Π½Π°ΠΉΠ±Π»ΠΈΠΆΡ‡ΠΈΡ… дСсяти Ρ€ΠΎΠΊΡ–Π² рСалізація Ρ€Ρ–Π·Π½ΠΎΠΌΠ°Π½Ρ–Ρ‚Π½ΠΈΡ… сцСнаріїв ΠΏΠΎΠ»Ρ–Ρ‚ΠΈΠΊΠΈ поводТСння Ρ–Π· Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€Π΄ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΡƒΡ‚ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΠΌΠΈ Π²Ρ–Π΄Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄Π°ΠΌΠΈ Ρƒ Ρ€Ρ–Π·Π½ΠΈΡ… ΠΊΡ€Π°Ρ—Π½Π°Ρ… світу ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅ спричинити Ρ€Ρ–Π·Π½ΠΎΠΌΠ°Π½Ρ–Ρ‚Π½Ρ– наслідки для Ρ‚ΠΈΡ…ΠΎΠΎΠΊΠ΅Π°Π½ΡΡŒΠΊΠΎΡ— плями сміття Ρ‚Π° Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³Ρ–Ρ‡Π½ΠΎΡ— ситуації Π²Π·Π°Π³Π°Π»Ρ–. На ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄Ρ– Ρ†Ρ–Ρ”Ρ— Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³Ρ–Ρ‡Π½ΠΎΡ— ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠΈ описано Π·Π°Π³Π°Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρƒ ΠΌΠ΅Ρ‚ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΡƒ виконання сцСнарного Π°Π½Π°Π»Ρ–Π·Ρƒ. ΠΠ°ΠΉΠ±Ρ–Π»ΡŒΡˆ ΠΆΠΈΡ‚Ρ‚Ρ”Π·Π΄Π°Ρ‚Π½ΠΈΠΉ сСрСд ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΡƒΠ΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ… сцСнаріїв Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°Ρ‡Π΅Π½ΠΎ Π·Π° допомогою Ρ–Π½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°Ρ‚ΠΎΡ€Ρ–Π² правдивості Π½Π° основі Ρ€Π΅Π°Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΈΡ… Π΄Π°Π½ΠΈΡ…. ΠŸΠΎΠ±ΡƒΠ΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ Π΄Π΅Ρ€Π΅Π²ΠΎ Ρ€Ρ–ΡˆΠ΅Π½ΡŒ для сцСнарного модСлювання; для Ρ†ΡŒΠΎΠ³ΠΎ використано авторСгрСсійні ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ– Ρ‚Π° Π·ΠΌΡ–ΡˆΠ°Π½Ρ– ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ– Π· Ρ‚Ρ€Π΅Π½Π΄ΠΎΠΌ.The study performed aimed at constructing and comparing scenarios of the solid waste treatment policy in different countries and their influence on variations of environmental dynamics changes in the area of ecological catastrophe β€” Pacific trash vortex. As input data for the scenario constructing and performing corresponding analysis the statistics for the solid waste processing in the USA, European Union and Singapore was used. The models were constructed for forecasting of the waste accumulated and the percentage of their processing. It was established that the process of the waste accumulation is described best with autoregressive model and structural model with trend. The basic trends for further development of the process under study have been discovered. Over the next ten years the implementation of various solid waste treatment scenarios in the world can cause a variety of implications for the Pacific trash vortex and ecological situation in general, as discussed in the article. A comparative analysis of the policy scenarios for the solid waste treatment was carried out. Using as an example this environmental problem a general methodology of scenario building is described. The indicators to define the robustness of these scenarios and the best one of them were found using actual data. The following tools were used for the purpose: scenario modeling, decision tree constructing for probabilistic modeling, autoregression models and models with description of trend.ЦСлью исслСдования Π±Ρ‹Π»ΠΎ выявлСниС Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½Ρ‹Ρ… сцСнариСв развития ситуации ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ°Ρ‚Π΅Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎ Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€Π΄Ρ‹Ρ… Π±Ρ‹Ρ‚ΠΎΠ²Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΎΡ‚Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΠΈΡ… влияния Π½Π° измСнСния Π² Ρ€Π΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π΅ экологичСской катастрофы β€” тихоокСанского пятна мусора. Π’ качСствС исходных Π΄Π°Π½Π½Ρ‹Ρ… использована статистика ΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π΅Ρ€Π°Π±ΠΎΡ‚ΠΊΠΈ Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€Π΄Ρ‹Ρ… Π±Ρ‹Ρ‚ΠΎΠ²Ρ‹Ρ… ΠΎΡ‚Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Π² БША, странах ЕвропСйского Боюза ΠΈ Π‘ΠΈΠ½Π³Π°ΠΏΡƒΡ€Π΅. На основС ΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΡ…ΡΡ Π΄Π°Π½Π½Ρ‹Ρ… построСны ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ для прогнозирования количСства ΠΎΠ±Ρ€Π°Π·ΡƒΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΡ…ΡΡ ΠΎΡ‚Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΈ уровня ΠΈΡ… ΠΏΠ΅Ρ€Π΅Ρ€Π°Π±ΠΎΡ‚ΠΊΠΈ. УстановлСно, Ρ‡Ρ‚ΠΎ процСсс образования ΠΎΡ‚Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Π»ΡƒΡ‡ΡˆΠ΅ всСго описываСтся с ΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΡ‰ΡŒΡŽ авторСгрСссионной ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ 1-Π³ΠΎ порядка ΠΈ структурной ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ с Ρ‚Ρ€Π΅Π½Π΄ΠΎΠΌ 3-Π³ΠΎ порядка. ΠžΠ±Π½Π°Ρ€ΡƒΠΆΠ΅Π½Ρ‹ основныС Ρ‚Ρ€Π΅Π½Π΄Ρ‹ развития исслСдуСмого процСсса, ΠΈ установлСно, Ρ‡Ρ‚ΠΎ Π² Ρ‚Π΅Ρ‡Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π±Π»ΠΈΠΆΠ°ΠΉΡˆΠΈΡ… дСсяти Π»Π΅Ρ‚ рСализация Ρ€Π°Π·Π»ΠΈΡ‡Π½Ρ‹Ρ… сцСнариСв ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡ‚ΠΈΠΊΠΈ обращСния с Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€Π΄Ρ‹ΠΌΠΈ Π±Ρ‹Ρ‚ΠΎΠ²Ρ‹ΠΌΠΈ ΠΎΡ‚Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄Π°ΠΌΠΈ Π² странах ΠΌΠΈΡ€Π° ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ‚ Π²Ρ‹Π·Π²Π°Ρ‚ΡŒ Ρ€Π°Π·Π½ΠΎΠΎΠ±Ρ€Π°Π·Π½Ρ‹Π΅ послСдствия для тихоокСанского пятна мусора ΠΈ экологичСской ситуации Π² Ρ†Π΅Π»ΠΎΠΌ. На ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Ρ€Π΅ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ экологичСской ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΡ‹ описана общая ΠΌΠ΅Ρ‚ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΠ° построСния сцСнарного Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°. НаиболСС ТизнСспособный срСди построСнных сцСнариСв ΠΎΠΏΡ€Π΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ с ΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΡ‰ΡŒΡŽ ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°Ρ‚ΠΎΡ€ΠΎΠ² правдивости Π½Π° основС Ρ€Π΅Π°Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹Ρ… Π΄Π°Π½Π½Ρ‹Ρ…. ΠŸΠΎΡΡ‚Ρ€ΠΎΠ΅Π½ΠΎ Π΄Π΅Ρ€Π΅Π²ΠΎ Ρ€Π΅ΡˆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ для сцСнарного модСлирования; для этого ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡŒΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Ρ‹ авторСгрСссионныС ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ с Ρ‚Ρ€Π΅Π½Π΄ΠΎΠΌ

    Ѐормализация постановки Π·Π°Π΄Π°Ρ‡ΠΈ управлСния рисками Π² систСмах Ρ€Π°Π·Π»ΠΈΡ‡Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΡ€ΠΎΠ΄Ρ‹

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    Розглянуто ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΡƒ Ρ„ΠΎΡ€ΠΌΠ°Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ опису Π·Π°Π³Π°Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΡ— постановки Π·Π°Π΄Π°Ρ‡Ρ– комплСксного кСрування Ρ€ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Π² Ρ†Ρ–Π»ΠΎΠΌΡƒ для дослідТуваної систСми. ΠΠ΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ…Ρ–Π΄Π½Ρ–ΡΡ‚ΡŒ звСрнСння Π΄ΠΎ Ρ‚Π°ΠΊΠΈΡ… постановок Π·ΡƒΠΌΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Π° Ρ‚ΠΈΠΌ, Ρ‰ΠΎ Ρ–ΡΠ½ΡƒΡŽΡ‡Ρ– ΠΏΡ–Π΄Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ ΠΌΠ°ΡŽΡ‚ΡŒ локальний нСсистСмний Ρ…Π°Ρ€Π°ΠΊΡ‚Π΅Ρ€ дослідТСння Ρ€ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΡ–Π², Π½Π΅ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΠ΄Π°Ρ‚Π½Ρ– для врахування Ρ€Ρ–Π·Π½ΠΎΡ— Ρ‚Π° міТдисциплінарної ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΡ€ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ Ρ€ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΡ–Π², Π½Π΅ Π·Π΄Π°Ρ‚Π½Ρ– ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»Π°Ρ‚ΠΈ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠΈ каскадних Ρ€ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΡ–Π². Розглянута постановка Π·Π°Π΄Π°Ρ‡Ρ– Π½Π° основі ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ– ΠœΠ΅Ρ€Ρ‚ΠΎΠ½Π° Ρ” ΡƒΠ·Π°Π³Π°Π»ΡŒΠ½Π΅Π½ΠΎΡŽ, ΡƒΠ½Ρ–Π²Π΅Ρ€ΡΠ°Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΡŽ Ρ‚Π° Ρ–Π΄Π΅Π°Π»Ρ–Π·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎΡŽ, Ρƒ якій Ρ€ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊ Π½Π΅ прСдставлСно Π² явному вигляді, Π° Ρ‚ΠΎΠΌΡƒ Π½Π΅ΠΌΠ°Ρ” нСобхідності Ρƒ Π²ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ½Π°Π½Π½Ρ– Π΄ΠΎΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π°Π½Π°Π»Ρ–Π·Ρƒ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ»ΠΈΠ²ΠΈΡ… Ρ€ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΡ–Π². Π—Π°ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΡ–Π΄Ρ…Ρ–Π΄ Π΄ΠΎ Ρ„ΠΎΡ€ΠΌΠ°Π»Ρ–Π·Π°Ρ†Ρ–Ρ— Π·Π°Π΄Π°Ρ‡Ρ– кСрування Ρ€ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Π½Π° основі Π΄ΠΎΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ дослідТСння Ρ„Π°ΠΊΡ‚ΠΎΡ€Ρ–Π² Ρ– ситуацій Ρ€ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΡ–Π². ΠžΠΏΡ‚ΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡŒΠ½Π° стратСгія кСрування Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°Ρ‡Π°Ρ”Ρ‚ΡŒΡΡ Π½Π° основі Ρ„ΡƒΠ½ΠΊΡ†Ρ–ΠΎΠ½Π°Π»Ρƒ якості, Ρ‰ΠΎ Π·Π°Π±Π΅Π·ΠΏΠ΅Ρ‡ΡƒΡ” ΠΌΡ–Π½Ρ–ΠΌΡ–Π·Π°Ρ†Ρ–ΡŽ Π½Π΅Π³Π°Ρ‚ΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΡ… проявів Ρ€ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΡ–Π² Ρƒ Ρ†Ρ–Π»ΠΎΠΌΡƒ для систСми, ΠΌΡ–Π½Ρ–ΠΌΡ–Π·Π°Ρ†Ρ–ΡŽ Π²ΠΈΡ‚Ρ€Π°Ρ‚ Π½Π° кСрування Ρ€ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Ρ‚Π° запобігання Ρ€ΡƒΠΉΠ½ΡƒΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΡŽ (Π·Π°Π³ΠΈΠ±Π΅Π»Ρ–) систСми.The paper considers the problem of formal statement of the general problem of integrated risk management in complex systems as a whole of different nature. Relevance of such formulations caused with the fact that the existing approaches are directed to local non-systemic risk analysis that do not focus on different and often multidisciplinary nature of the risks, and are not able to overcome the problem of cascaded development of risks. The statement of the problem based on the Merton model is considered. This model shows generalized, universal and idealized approach, where the risk is not presented in an explicit form, and therefore a detailed risk analysis is not valid in this case. The proposed approach to the problem formalization and solving is based on a detailed study of risk factors and situations. The optimal control strategy is based on the functional that provides a minimum negative effect of the risks in the system as a whole, minimizing the costs of risk management and provides prevention of the system ruin.РассмотрСна ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ° Ρ„ΠΎΡ€ΠΌΠ°Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ описания ΠΎΠ±Ρ‰Π΅ΠΉ постановки Π·Π°Π΄Π°Ρ‡ΠΈ комплСксного управлСния рисками Π² Ρ†Π΅Π»ΠΎΠΌ ΠΏΠΎ систСмС. ΠΠ΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡ‚ΡŒ Ρ‚Π°ΠΊΠΈΡ… постановок обусловлСна Ρ‚Π΅ΠΌ, Ρ‡Ρ‚ΠΎ ΡΡƒΡ‰Π΅ΡΡ‚Π²ΡƒΡŽΡ‰ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄Ρ‹ носят Π»ΠΎΠΊΠ°Π»ΡŒΠ½Ρ‹ΠΉ нСсистСмный Ρ…Π°Ρ€Π°ΠΊΡ‚Π΅Ρ€ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π° рисков, Π½Π΅ ΠΎΠ±Π΅ΡΠΏΠ΅Ρ‡ΠΈΠ²Π°ΡŽΡ‚ ΡƒΡ‡Π΅Ρ‚ Ρ€Π°Π·Π½ΠΎΠΎΠ±Ρ€Π°Π·Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈ часто мСТдисциплинарной ΠΏΡ€ΠΈΡ€ΠΎΠ΄Ρ‹ рисков, Π° Ρ‚Π°ΠΊΠΆΠ΅ Π½Π΅ способны ΠΏΡ€Π΅ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»Π΅Ρ‚ΡŒ ΠΏΡ€ΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΡ‹ каскадного развития рисков. РассмотрСнная Π² Ρ€Π°Π±ΠΎΡ‚Π΅ постановка Π·Π°Π΄Π°Ρ‡ΠΈ Π½Π° основС ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠœΠ΅Ρ€Ρ‚ΠΎΠ½Π° являСтся ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΠ±Ρ‰Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ, ΡƒΠ½ΠΈΠ²Π΅Ρ€ΡΠ°Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈ ΠΈΠ΄Π΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡ€ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ, Π² ΠΊΠΎΡ‚ΠΎΡ€ΠΎΠΉ риск Π½Π΅ прСдставлСн Π² явном Π²ΠΈΠ΄Π΅, ΠΈ поэтому Π½Π΅Ρ‚ нСобходимости Π² Π²Ρ‹ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΈ Π΄Π΅Ρ‚Π°Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π° рисков. ΠŸΡ€Π΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄ ΠΊ Ρ„ΠΎΡ€ΠΌΠ°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°Ρ†ΠΈΠΈ Π·Π°Π΄Π°Ρ‡ΠΈ Π½Π° основС Π΄Π΅Ρ‚Π°Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ исслСдования Ρ„Π°ΠΊΡ‚ΠΎΡ€ΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ситуаций Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½Ρ‹Ρ… рисков. ΠžΠΏΡ‚ΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡŒΠ½Π°Ρ стратСгия опрСдСляСтся Π½Π° основС Ρ„ΡƒΠ½ΠΊΡ†ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»Π° качСства, ΠΎΠ±Π΅ΡΠΏΠ΅Ρ‡ΠΈΠ²Π°ΡŽΡ‰Π΅Π³ΠΎ ΠΌΠΈΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈΠ·Π°Ρ†ΠΈΡŽ Π½Π΅Π³Π°Ρ‚ΠΈΠ²Π½Ρ‹Ρ… проявлСний рисков Π² Ρ†Π΅Π»ΠΎΠΌ ΠΏΠΎ систСмС, ΠΌΠΈΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈΠ·Π°Ρ†ΠΈΡŽ расходов Π½Π° ΡƒΠΏΡ€Π°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ рисками ΠΈ ΠΏΡ€Π΅Π΄ΠΎΡ‚Π²Ρ€Π°Ρ‰Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Ρ€Π°Π·Ρ€ΡƒΡˆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ систСмы
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