A statistical method utilizing information of imported cases to estimate the transmissibility for an influenza pandemic

Abstract Background In a new influenza pandemic, travel data such as arrival times of cases seeded by the originating country can be regarded as a combination of the epidemic size and the mobility networks of infections connecting the originating country with other regions. It can be a complete and timely source for estimating the basic reproduction number (R 0 ), a key indicator of disease transmissibility. Method In this study, we developed a likelihood-based method using arrival times of infected cases in different countries to estimate R 0 for influenza pandemics. A simulation was conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method. We further applied the method to the outbreak of the influenza pandemic A/H1N1 in Mexico. Results In the numerical application, the estimated R 0 was equal to 1.69 with a 95% confidence interval (1.65, 1.73). For the simulation results, the estimations were robust to the decline of travel rate and other parameter assumptions. Nevertheless, the estimates were moderately sensitive to the assumption of infectious duration. Generally, the findings were in line with other relevant studies. Conclusions Our approach as well as the estimate is potential to assist officials in planning control and prevention measures. Improved coordination to streamline or even centralize surveillance of imported cases among countries will thus be beneficial to public health

Non-redundant region (Ω) of computation of the bispectrum for real signals. Parameters are calculated from this region.

<p>Non-redundant region (Ω) of computation of the bispectrum for real signals. Parameters are calculated from this region.</p

Comparison of neovascularization detection methods.

<p>Comparison of neovascularization detection methods.</p

Effects of Kinesio tape on lower limb muscle strength, hop test, and vertical jump performances: a meta-analysis

Abstract Background To date, published systematic reviews concerning the effects of Kinesio Taping (KT) on muscle strength have not analysed facilitatory and inhibitory applications separately. As a result, their results could be substantially affected by clinical heterogeneity. This meta-analysis was conducted to determine the effectiveness of using a facilitatory application of KT for lower limb muscle strength and functional performance (distance in a single-leg hop and vertical jump height) in individuals without disabilities and in those with musculoskeletal conditions (muscle fatigue, chronic musculoskeletal diseases, and post-operative orthopaedic conditions). Methods Searches were conducted on six major electronic databases. Randomised controlled trials that used facilitatory KT were included. Standardised mean differences (SMDs) were calculated and random-effects models were used for analysis. Results Thirty-seven randomised controlled trials were included. KT was superior to controls for improving lower limb muscle strength in individuals with muscle fatigue (short-term effect, pooled SMD = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.09 to 0.96; long-term effect, pooled SMD = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.12 to 1.11) and in individuals with chronic musculoskeletal diseases (pooled SMD = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.33 to 2.16) with large effect sizes. The use of KT in populations without disabilities was not supported. There is insufficient evidence for the effect of KT on functional performance in individuals with musculoskeletal conditions. Conclusions Contrary to prior research, the existing evidence shows that KT can improve lower limb muscle strength in individuals with muscle fatigue and chronic musculoskeletal diseases. The effect sizes produced in this meta-analysis show that KT may be superior to some existing treatments for these conditions. In addition, this study suggests that practitioners may wish to avoid the use of KT in individuals without disabilities. Trial registration PROSPERO registration number CRD42017075490, registered on 21 November 2017

Results of neovascularization detection on retinal images.

<p>Results of neovascularization detection on retinal images.</p

New vessels examples: (a) New vessels elsewhere (NVE). (b) New vessels on disc (NVD).

<p>New vessels examples: (a) New vessels elsewhere (NVE). (b) New vessels on disc (NVD).</p

Identifying Meteorological Drivers for the Seasonal Variations of Influenza Infections in a Subtropical City — Hong Kong

Compared with temperate areas, the understanding of seasonal variations of influenza infections is lacking in subtropical and tropical regions. Insufficient information about viral activity increases the difficulty of forecasting the disease burden and thus hampers official preparation efforts. Here we identified potential meteorological factors that drove the seasonal variations in influenza infections in a subtropical city, Hong Kong. We fitted the meteorological data and influenza mortality data from 2002 to 2009 in a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model. From the results, air temperature was a common significant driver of seasonal patterns and cold temperature was associated with an increase in transmission intensity for most of the influenza epidemics. Except 2004, the fitted models with significant meteorological factors could account for more than 10% of the variance in additional to the null model. Rainfall was also found to be a significant driver of seasonal influenza, although results were less robust. The identified meteorological indicators could alert officials to take appropriate control measures for influenza epidemics, such as enhancing vaccination activities before cold seasons. Further studies are required to fully justify the associations